Monday, November 30, 2020

Biden econ team takes shape — Deese locked for NEC — Tanden will be a fight

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Nov 30, 2020 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Presented by The Great Courses Plus

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Quick Fix

Biden econ team comes together — As we first reported last week , Cecilia Rouse, an African American economist who worked on both Obama's Council of Economic Advisers and President Bill Clinton's National Economic Council and is now the dean of the Princeton School of Public and International, is going to serve as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, as the WSJ confirmed on Sunday night following our initial reporting.

Brian Deese speaks at a news conference at the White House in 2012.

Brian Deese speaks at a news conference at the White House in 2012. | AP Photo

We are told former Obama official and BlackRock ESG investing exec Brian Deese remains on track to head the National Economic Council, thus becoming Biden's top West Wing economic adviser. We are told, however, that the official NEC pick will not come Tuesday alongside other big economic jobs. The Biden team is eager to get some more diverse names out first. But Deese has the job barring some giant surprise.

None of the other names are all that surprising – As reported, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be tapped as Treasury Secretary. Neera Tanden, a veteran Democratic policy official with experience in the Obama and Clinton campaigns, will serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget if she can make it through the Senate.

Tanden, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, is not a classical liberal. But her nomination will likely be cheered on the left. And Tanden is likely to support significant federal spending in the face of the Covid-19 epidemic with little concern for near-term deficits. Top Biden economic advisers Heather Boushey and Jared Bernstein will serve on the CEA under Rouse.

Among other names — Biden plans to pick Adewale "Wally" Adeyemo as deputy Treasury Secretary to Yellen. Slightly less expansive jobs than we imagined for Boushey and Bernstein but seats can always change as things move forward.

Biggest fight ahead — Looks like it will be Neera for OMB. Via Drew Brandewei, @DBrandewei, comms director for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.): "Neera Tanden, who has an endless stream of disparaging comments about the Republican Senators' whose votes she'll need, stands zero chance of being confirmed.

GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Hope everyone got to have some kind of a decent Thanksgiving, though MM really didn't. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

DRIVING THE WEEK — Biden econ team picks expected Tuesday … Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. before Senate Banking and Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. before House Financial Services with the CARES Act and remaining funds at center stage … November jobs report out Friday at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 500K with unemployment at 6.8 percent and wages up 0.2 percent

BIDEN SPRAINS HIS FOOT! — Our Lauraine Genota: "Biden will need a walking boot after sustaining small fractures to his right foot while playing with one of his dogs, according to his doctor.

"Biden was injured Saturday and visited an orthopedist at Delaware Orthopaedic Specialists in Newark, Del., for an examination Sunday afternoon, according to a pool report. Earlier in the afternoon, doctors said they found 'no obvious fracture,' but a follow-up CT scan confirmed hairline fractures of Biden's 'lateral and intermediate cuneiform bones, which are in the mid-foot,' according to a statement from his doctor, Kevin O'Connor."

GLOBAL SHARES TAKE A BREAK — Via Reuters: "World shares paused to assess a record-busting month on Monday as the prospect of a vaccine-driven economic recovery next year and yet more free money from central banks eclipsed concerns about the coronavirus pandemic in the near-term.

"Helping sentiment was a survey showing factory activity in China handily beat forecasts in November, leaving blue chips 6.6% higher for the month. The rush to risk has benefited oil and industrial commodities while undermining the safe-haven dollar and gold."

TRUMP KEEPS COMPLAINING; BUT KNOWS IT'S OVER — Via Bloomberg: "President Donald Trump acknowledged that the fight to overturn his re-election defeat 'probably' won't reach the Supreme Court, which had been the goal of his legal team.

"'It's very hard to get a case to the Supreme Court,' Trump said in a Fox News interview conducted by telephone from the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland. 'I probably can't get a case.'"

 

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PRESIDENT-ELECT NAMES ALL WOMEN COMMS TEAM — Our Theodoric Meyer: "Biden turned to two Obama administration veterans … to head up his White House's communications strategy and serve as its public face.

"Kate Bedingfield, who served as Biden's communications director while he was vice president and on his presidential campaign, will be the White House communications director. And Jen Psaki, who served as White House communications director for the last two years of President Barack Obama's administration, will be Biden's White House press secretary. Biden rounded out his White House communications staff with five other women — the first senior White House communications team comprised entirely of women, Biden's transition noted in its announcement."

LAWMAKERS CLINCH DEAL ON FIGHT AGAINST SHELL COMPANIESOur Zachary Warmbrodt: "The most sweeping overhaul of financial crime safeguards in decades is poised to be attached to must-pass defense legislation in the coming weeks — a product of behind-the-scenes negotiations between lawmakers and Trump administration officials who are usually at odds.

"The legislation, hammered out by progressive Democrats, conservative Republicans and … Mnuchin, would require millions of business entities to reveal their owners to the federal government in an attempt to deter the use of anonymous shell companies by criminals evading anti-money laundering rules. Congressional aides confirmed that the group has reached an agreement, teeing up the legislation for inclusion in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, one of the last major bills lawmakers are expected to pass this year."

 

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Markets

INVESTORS WEIGH PROSPECTS FOR CORPORATE EARNINGS AS STOCKS SET RECORDS — Reuters' Caroline Valetkevitch: "As U.S. stocks scale fresh record highs, investors are trying to gauge whether next year's projected profit rebound will be strong enough to add fuel to the rally. Analysts are projecting that earnings for S&P 500 companies will rise 23 percent next year after falling more than 15 percent this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

"Yet stock prices have already staged a massive recovery from the March lows of the pandemic, with the S&P 500 index rising more than 60 percent from its bottom to its recent record highs amid progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine and hopes for a speedy economic recovery."

TRUMP NOMINATES TOP BANK REGULATOR AS BIDEN STARTS TRANSITION — Bloomberg's Jesse Hamilton: "President Donald Trump formally nominated Brian Brooks to take over a key banking regulator, potentially forcing Joe Biden to fire him after the president-elect is sworn in.

"In a brief Friday statement, the White House said it had sent the nomination to the Senate, where Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo has already signaled that Brooks would get a confirmation hearing for a five-year term leading the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Brooks has been acting OCC chief since May."

 

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Fly Around

DESPITE FEDERAL BAN, RENTERS STILL BEING EVICTED AMID VIRUS — AP's Michael Casey: "With most state and local eviction bans expired, the nationwide directive was seen as the best hope to prevent more than 23 million renters from being evicted amid a stalemate in Congress over tens of billions of dollars in rental assistance. It was also billed as a way to fight the coronavirus, with studies showing evictions can spread the virus and lead to an increase in infections. The CDC order has averted a wave of evictions, housing advocates said, but tenants are increasingly falling through the cracks.

"Some judges in North Carolina and Missouri refused to accept the directive, tenant advocates said. The order has been applied inconsistently, and some tenants, who had no legal representation, knew nothing about it. Landlords in several states also unsuccessfully sued to scrap the order, arguing it was causing them financial hardship and infringing on their property rights."

FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY, A GRIM SLOG TEMPERED BY NEW HOPES — NYT's Peter S. Goodman: "Nearly a year into a pandemic that has ravaged the global economy like no time since the Great Depression, the only clear pathway toward improved fortunes is containing the virus itself.

"With the United States suffering its most rampant transmission yet, and with major nations in Europe again under lockdown, prospects remain grim for a meaningful worldwide recovery before the middle of next year, and far longer in some economies. Substantial job growth could take longer still."

But with the economy still vulnerable, trade could be a refuge — WSJ's Jon Sindreu: "Amid so much macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should focus on what the latest data show: A widening gulf between the global export-oriented economy, which could soon get back to precrisis levels, and the more troubled, domestically focused one.

"According to purchasing managers index surveys for November, published this week by IHS Markit, business activity in the U.K., the eurozone and Japan is shrinking again. Monthly changes in PMIs loo k tightly correlated to the recent rise in Covid-19 infections."

 

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