Monday, November 30, 2020

Biden econ picks on deck — WTO members far from fisheries deal — French dole out first digital tax bills

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Nov 30, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Gavin Bade

Editor's Note: Weekly Trade is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Trade policy newsletter, Morning Trade. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

President-elect Joe Biden is set to announce nominations for key economic posts this week, which could include picks for U.S. trade representative and Commerce secretary.

World negotiators are still far from a deal to protect world fisheries, with big differences persisting between developed and developing economies as parties try to reach a deal by year's end.

And the French government handed American tech companies their first digital tax bills for 2020, sparking a threat of retaliation from the top Senate Finance Democrat.

It's Monday, Nov. 30! Welcome to Weekly Trade on the day that England and Scotland played out a 0-0 draw in 1874, the first official international soccer match in history. That scoreless draw is said to have been a dud for spectators, but it can't have been as bad as watching Jose Mourinho's Tottenham park the bus for 90 minutes to get out of Stamford Bridge with a draw this weekend. Tactical genius or anti-football? Have your say: gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com.

 

TRACK THE TRANSITION: President-elect Biden has started to form a Cabinet and announce his senior White House staff. The appointments and staffing decisions made in the coming days send clear-cut signals about Biden's priorities. Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, it tracks the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
DRIVING THE WEEK

ECONOMIC TEAM NOMINATIONS COMING: Biden plans to announce more nominations for his economic team this week, potentially ending the suspense over who will be the next U.S. trade representative and Commerce secretary.

Biden is expected to name Neera Tanden, CEO of the Center for American Progress, as head of the Office of Management and Budget, and Princeton labor economist Cecilia Rouse to head the Council of Economic Advisers, POLITICO's Transition team reported Sunday. Adewale "Wally" Adeyemo, a Nigerian-born attorney and former senior international economic adviser during the Obama administration, will serve as deputy Treasury secretary under former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who Biden plans to appoint to lead the Treasury Department.

But no word yet on the trade-related posts, which could come as part of the economic announcements, expected Tuesday.

Tai the Hill favorite for USTR: A number of members of Congress have publicly supported House Ways and Means trade lawyer Katherine Tai for USTR, with ten congresswomen from different corners of the Democratic caucus throwing their support behind her in a letter to the Biden transition last week.

But far from a lock: It's possible that Biden could decide on a political figure instead, like California Rep. Jimmy Gomez. Or he could harken back to an Obama-era figure, like former White House chief of staff Rahm Emaunel, who has been angling for the job.

Pulling members tough: But in an interview last week, the incoming president said he was reluctant to choose either a House or Senate member because he needed as many Democratic votes in Congress as possible to enact his agenda.

The long list of possible picks for the Commerce Department includes former Democratic presidential candidates Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer and business leaders such as Ursula Burns, Indra Nooyi, Leo Hindery, Oscar Munoz, Mellody Hobson and Meg Whitman.

Former FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn's name has also appeared in the mix. She is the daughter of South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, whose endorsement revived Biden's candidacy for the Democratic nomination.

Diverse department: Whomever Biden picks will preside over a diverse department whose functions include forecasting the weather, managing ocean fisheries and setting international technology product standards.

"Most secretaries choose to concentrate on trade and technology because they're the 'coolest' parts of the department," said Bill Reinsch, a trade policy specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who was Commerce undersecretary for export administration during the Clinton administration. "Congress, in contrast, is often very interested in fish, weather and, depending on the year, the census."

Climate change: The department includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, giving the incoming secretary an important role in development and implementation of any actions taken by the Biden administration to address climate change. That's a potential big shift after four years of President Donald Trump downplaying concerns about the issues.

Trade, technology and national security: "The biggest immediate challenges may relate to 5G and telecom security," Reinsch said. Commerce contains both the National Telecommunications and Information Administration and the Bureau of Industry and Security.

BIS, which focuses on the national security aspect of trade, was more active than ever during the Trump administration, with a number of actions taken against Chinese telecommunication companies Huawei and ZTE.

The agency also played a key role in Trump's decision to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum from around the world on the theory that the imports posed a threat to U.S. national security by undermining domestic production of the two metals. However, many saw the move as thinly disguised protectionism.

"The next secretary will have to rebuild U.S. credibility on the appropriate use of national security measures," said Michael Smart, a managing director at Rock Creek Global Advisors, a trade policy advisory firm. "This includes rolling back tariffs on allies and taking a more strategic approach to export controls, identifying choke point technologies and coordinating with allies to control access to them without disadvantaging U.S. firms."

XI CONGRATULATES BIDEN, BUT PHONE CALL AWAITS: Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Biden last week for winning the presidential election, but the leaders of the world's two largest economies still haven't spoken.

Despite some media coverage saying Xi called Biden last week, Morning Trade understands the Chinese leader publicly acknowledged he won the election, but has not gone so far as to call the president-elect.

That makes Xi one of the last world leaders to call the Biden transition, joining the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still has yet to acknowledge that Trump lost.

WTO FISHERIES NEGOTIATION STILL SNAGGED: Big differences remain in WTO talks aimed at getting a deal by the end of this year to reduce government subsidies that contribute to the depletion of ocean fisheries, Geneva officials said. World leaders set the 2020 deadline for a fisheries deal as part of a larger package of Sustainable Development Goals in 2015

Rich versus poor: One issue concerns how much more lenient the agreement should be for developing countries, than for developed countries.

Swiss Ambassador Didier Chambovey, who is leading the consultations on that issue, told members last week he had heard very diverse views on how "special and differential treatment" for developing countries should be structured and implemented.

At one of the spectrum, some members feel that all countries should be bound to the same level of commitments and that S&DT should mainly consist of longer transition periods and technical assistance. But other members believe there should be significant exemptions based on the size of a country's fishing fleet, geographical factors and socio-economic thresholds.

The U.S. said the S&DT discussions were premature because members still have not agreed on which subsidies to discipline. But it also argued there is little justification for S&DT, other than needs-based transition periods, if the subsidies targeted by the agreement truly do contribute to unsustainable levels of fishing.

Dispute settlement: Negotiators are also arguing over the mechanism to resolve any disputes that arise under the agreement.

One issue involves whether countries found in violation of the agreement would simply be required to remove the illegal subsidies, or if they could be ordered to take further steps to restore depleted fish stocks.

Another issue concerns whether a country that has been found in violation of the agreement should face retaliatory duties if they fail to take the necessary steps to come into compliance.

WHITE HOUSE EXTENDS TIKTOK DEAL DEADLINE: The Chinese owner of the popular mobile app TikTok now has until Dec. 4 to reach a deal that satisfies the Trump administration's national security concerns over the app.

That's the date by when the firm, ByteDance, must strike a deal with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. Trump must sign off on the deal after.

In August, Trump ordered ByteDance, the Chinese tech giant behind TikTok, to divest its U.S. business operations within 90 days. Earlier this month, the administration bumped the deadline from Nov. 12 to this Friday.

WYDEN THREATENS RETALIATION FOR FRENCH DIGITAL TAX BILLS : The top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee said Wednesday that he and his colleagues will use "every available tool" to defend U.S. tech companies against new digital services taxes if the French government doesn't pump the brakes on implementing them.

Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said France has escalated its fight with the U.S. over taxing major American technology companies doing business there by sending them tax bills for digital commerce.

The French finance ministry confirmed that, saying Wednesday that "businesses subject to this tax have received a tax notice for the 2020 down payment," POLITICO Europe reported.

The Trump administration has threatened to hike tariffs on more French goods if Macron's government does not give up its plan to tax the likes of Google, Amazon and other Silicon Valley firms, but so far hasn't followed through. Talks between the U.S. and EU on the issue have faltered, and the Biden transition hasn't yet said how he'd address the taxes.

U.S. PORK IMPORTS SPARK BRAWL IN TAIWAN PARLIAMENT: Taiwan's decision to open its market to American meat imports sparked a messy brawl on the floor of parliament over the weekend, with members from the opposition Nationalist party throwing pig guts and punches at members of the majority Democratic Progressive Party.

The Nationalists lawmakers were protesting a recent agreement between President Tsai Ing-wen and the U.S. to import American pork and beef, which contains the growth hormone ractopamine, banned in the European Union, China and elsewhere. CNN has video and the Associated Press did a nice writeup.

U.S. farmers say the hormone is harmless to humans and helps promote the growth of lean meat in livestock, but many in Taiwan view the products as an affront to their culinary and agricultural traditions, and tens of thousands took to the streets this month to protest the change.

But U.S. negotiators have been adamant that accepting American meat products is a bare minimum for free trade discussions with the U.S., and Taiwan's decision was widely viewed as a confidence building exercise to smooth the way for such a deal with Washington.

"We believe deepening trade relations between Taiwan and the United States is good for both of our countries so our government made a decision to deal with these very complicated agricultural issues," Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan's top diplomat, told your Morning Trade host in September.

Trade Remedy Corner

ITC ALLOWS TRUMP TO CONTINUE APPLIANCE TARIFFS: The U.S. International Trade Commission on Wednesday voted unanimously to allow Trump to continue applying import duties on large residential washing machines that he first imposed in early 2018. The commission said the duties continue to be necessary "to prevent or remedy serious injury" to U.S. appliance makers. Trump will have to choose whether to provide additional relief before leaving office Jan. 20.

 

NEXT WEEK - DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT 2020: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most significant health challenges. Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in the treatment of our most vulnerable communities, driving the focus of the 2020 conference on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage from December 7–9.

 
 
International Overnight

— Brian Deese is expected as nominee for top Biden economic post, POLITICO reports.

— EU parliament confirms U.S. lobster deal, POLITICO Europe reports.

— The U.K. says Brexit talks with the EU are in their last week, The Associated Press reports.

— Samsung still mum about U.S. ITC ruling on image sensor infringement, The Korea Times reports.

— Australia speaks out against "aggressive" Chinese efforts to curb Australian imports, Bloomberg reports.

— China continues to dominate world export markets despite the U.S. trade war, the Nikkei Asian Review reports.

— South Africa's decision to impose export taxes part of a global trend, The Herald reports.

THAT'S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com; gbade@politico.com; xbustillo@politico.com; jyearwood@politico.com and pjoshi@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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