Monday, September 7, 2020

The impact of the nonfarm and ECB news on Forex this week

The ECB is in the spotlight

Hello, my name is Nicholas. I am a financial analyst with the OctaFX team.

Let's rewind to review the events that impacted the market and which events will affect it in the future.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released disappointing Nonfarm Payroll data. The speed of economic recovery raises doubts as nonfarm employment slowing. Nevertheless, the overall unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4% in July.

Britain set a deadline for 15 October to come to an agreement with the European Union on a new trade deal. If a deal cannot be reached, both sides must 'accept it and move on'.

U.S. and China relations may further deteriorate as the November elections approach with the Trump administration considering blacklisting major Chinese chipmaker, SMIC.

The main focus this week will be on the European Central Bank's (ECB) deposit rate decision, which takes place on Thursday. Most analysts aren't expecting significant changes in the overall political view, but the ECB inflation forecast is highly anticipated.

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7 September

Monday

EUR: Industrial Production

 

8 September

Tuesday

JPY: Gross Domestic Product

EUR: Trade Balance

EUR: Gross Domestic Product

9 September

Wednesday

CNY: Consumer Price Index

CAD: BoC Rate Statement

 

10 September

Thursday

EUR: ECB deposit rate decision

USD: Initial Jobless Claims

11 September

Friday

EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

GBP: Manufacturing Production

GBP: Gross Domestic Product

USD: Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy

Market sentiment

Indices

The SPX500 index fell last week after reaching a record of 3,580. The drop is a result of investors' pessimistic outlook of the speed of economic recovery in the U.S. and due to investors selling long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this month. We may see a slow upward movement in the middle term.

Currencies

The dollar held steady on Monday against all major currencies. Last week, investors believed there could have been an early aid package decision, which has been tabled for weeks. The dollar began to recover gradually against most major currencies as a result of this belief. The GBPUSD pair is confronting disconcerting news, too, about the U.K.'s potential trade deal with the E.U.

Gold

Gold is experiencing increased volatility. On Friday, prices dropped to 1,920 USD. Information about the new coronavirus vaccines is a downward factor for gold prices. We can expect a bit of a sideways trend this week, with the support level of gold remaining at 1,906 USD.

Oil

Oil prices dropped more than one dollar per barrel on Monday, falling to their lowest level since July. The last time oil was this low was when Saudi Arabia made the deepest monthly cut in Asian supply prices over five months, as pessimism regarding a recovery in demand rose. With the U.S. Labor Day holiday marking the end of the summer driving seasons, investors noted that demand for gas was sluggish, while supply remained high. Currently, Brent crude is trading at 42.20 USD. Oil prices were also pressured by the beginning of the U.S. refinery service season, which means a lower oil demand.

 

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