| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | TRAGEDY IN NEW ORLEANS — “10 killed, dozens injured on Bourbon Street in New Orleans as car plows into crowd,” by the Times-Picayune’s Ben Myers: “Ten people were killed and at least 35 others injured early Wednesday morning when a man barreled his pickup truck down Bourbon Street in what New Orleans officials described as ‘a mass casualty incident.’ … The perpetrator crashed two vehicles and shot at police officers, injuring two of them. An FBI official said an improvised explosive device was found at the scene.” WELCOME TO 2025 — President JOE BIDEN spent New Year’s Eve at the wedding of his niece, MISSY OWENS, to NIC LUTSEY. President-elect DONALD TRUMP spent it at Mar-a-Lago, with a black-tie reception featuring ELON MUSK, Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and a menagerie of other MAGA world figures, from DON JR. and ERIC TRUMP to boxing promoter DON KING. Chinese President XI JINPING used his New Year’s address to say that “everyone should be full of confidence” about the economy amid concerns about its post-pandemic growth and relations with the Trump administration. (Worth noting: Xi also said that no one can stop China’s reunification with Taiwan.) Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN used his own New Year’s address — delivered on the 25th anniversary of his first coming to power — to declare that “we are certain that everything will be fine,” a vague reassurance amid rising inflation and a war in Ukraine where heavy losses for Russia continue to mount. (The latest: Overnight, after his speech, Russia’s gas supply to Europe was choked off “after Ukraine said it would not renew a deal allowing Russian gas to transit its territory, ending an energy supply route that dates back some 60 years,” per WaPo.) Welcome to 2025.
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Congress will meet for the first time on Friday and House Speaker Mike Johnson will try to scrape together the votes to win another term with the gavel. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | In two days, at noon on Friday, the new Congress will meet for the first time and House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will try to scrape together the votes to win another term with the gavel. Due to the GOP’s slim majority, assuming there’s full attendance and House Democrats unite behind HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Johnson can only afford to lose the support of one Republican. (Here’s a good read on the gavel math from The Hill’s Emily Brooks.) Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) has already announced he will not support Johnson. And ABC News counts 15 House Republicans who say they’re undecided — despite Trump’s endorsement of the speaker. “I don't believe that [Johnson] has the votes on Friday,” Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) told Fox Business yesterday. “And I think we need to have the conference get together so we can get united.” Reminder: The House can’t conduct any business until it elects a speaker. But assuming they do… In five days, VP KAMALA HARRIS will preside over a joint session of Congress inside a heavily fortified Capitol building to count the Electoral College’s votes and formally affirm Trump’s victory. All of that in the first seven days of 2025. Then, of course, later this month, we’ll see confirmation hearings for Trump’s cabinet nominees (PETE HEGSETH’s hearings for secretary of Defense open on Jan. 14), Biden’s farewell speech, Trump’s inauguration (Jan. 20) and a Howitzer blast of activity from the new administration. The big storylines that will define 2025 have already taken shape: TRUMP’S RETURN TO POWER — How serious is Trump about using state power to go after his political enemies? Unchastened by total control in Washington, what guardrails will constrain him? Will he use the early days of his administration to set the new tone, and what will that tone be? What norms will he bulldoze through? And how will a lame duck Trump administration look different, unconstrained by the need to win reelection? DEMOCRATIC SOUL-SEARCHING — They are without power in DC and mired in finger-pointing about the 2024 election that will continue throughout the year. At this moment, there are many more questions — What *are* the party’s actual problems? Is it a PR issue? Something deeper? Are they selling their message to the wrong people? — than answers. Then there are the practical questions about the new administration. What does opposition to Trump actually look like this time around? Who are the leaders of that movement and how do you balance trying to be the grown ups in the room with being the opposition at the same time? Historically, there’s nothing that brings Democrats together like opposing Trump, which at this point is their best hope of some kind of unity. HOUSE REPUBLICAN INFIGHTING — Even if Johnson holds onto the gavel on Friday, he’ll face a tightrope walk as he navigates a majority that’s even narrower than the one he’s managed up to this point. And with policy fights ahead — the debt ceiling chief among them — sure to poke and prod at the party’s ideological fissures, the task ahead for Republican leadership is immense. HAKEEM JEFFRIES’ TEST — While Republicans tussle in the House, their counterparts on the other side of the aisle are going to have the huge lift of creating their own unity in opposition. Historically, Jeffries has had a lighter touch than his predecessor, former Speaker NANCY PELOSI. Publicly (and privately), he likes to say that the caucus will have its will — which is all fine and good, but being the opposition to united Republican control while the party is in shambles might require a more hands-on approach from leadership. Since the election, multiple Democrats have told us that House Democrats should stop “bailing out” Johnson on must-pass legislation and let Republicans fail. The other school of thought sees Democrats as a party that believes in government and argues they shouldn’t take risks on must-pass legislation to make a political point. How Jeffries handles these tension points (and the myriad others) could have a major impact on how the midterms play out and whether or not the Democratic brand is able to recover. THE INFLUENCE OF ELON MUSK AND CO. — Other than Trump, there’s probably no singular person who will help shape the public perception of the administration than Musk. Musk has already shown his willingness to step in and derail important negotiations at the last minute — and his ability to do so is only likely to increase with Washington under Republican control. But it’s the influence Musk wields behind the scenes that’s likely to make an even bigger impact. The billionaire has essentially moved into Mar-a-Lago to stay close to Trump and his inner circle during the transition, which has already raised some eyebrows in Trump world. Between that, his megaphone on the Musk-owned X, his immense wealth (which he can freely spend on elections other than just the presidential) and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency panel with VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Musk is set to play a massive role shaping politics in the year ahead. Happy New Year. Thanks for reading Playbook. What trends are you watching in the year ahead? Drop me a line at edaniels@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to make housing more available.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy. Addressing housing availability through tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unlock supply, and solve a national crisis. | | | HISTORY SCOOP: JIMMY AND GEORGE — Andy Glass, who covered JIMMY CARTER as a political reporter Atlanta-based Cox Newspapers while the former Georgia governor ran for president, writes to Playbook with a memory from Nov. 20, 1976, when then-CIA Director GEORGE H.W. BUSH visited President-elect Carter in Plains, Ga. Glass writes that in an off-the-record dinner after Bush’s departure, Carter told the reporter that Bush made a pitch to keep his job. “Well, what did you tell him, governor?” Glass remembers asking. “I told him I would think about it,” Carter replied. A month later, Bush announced that he would leave the CIA once Carter took office. But it does lend itself to quite a “what if?” scenario: If Carter had asked Bush to stay at the CIA, it’s hard to imagine that Bush would’ve been the Republican VP nominee in 1980 — which makes it unlikely that his presidency would’ve happened, and the historical dominoes tumble from there. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Round and round one last time: The final day of the D.C. Circulator,” by WaPo’s Rachel Weiner: “It was the bus equivalent of an Irish wake.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   The pathway to more housing availability runs through the tax code. See our blueprint to unlock supply. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will depart from Wilmington, Delaware en route to Hagerstown, Maryland. Afterwards, the Bidens will travel to Camp David. Harris has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | | You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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Chief Justice John Roberts seemed to obliquely refer to President-elect Trump, warning against calls to resist or defy the Supreme Court’s decisions. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | 1. MAY IT PLEASE THE COURT: In his annual year-end report released yesterday, Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS seemed to obliquely refer to President-elect Trump, warning against calls to resist or defy the Supreme Court’s decisions, Josh Gerstein reports. What Roberts said, in part: “Every Administration suffers defeats in the court system — sometimes in cases with major ramifications for executive or legislative power or other consequential topics. Nevertheless, for the past several decades, the decisions of the courts, popular or not, have been followed,” Roberts wrote in the annual message. “Within the past few years, however, elected officials from across the political spectrum have raised the specter of open disregard for federal court rulings. These dangerous suggestions, however sporadic, must be soundly rejected.” The context for this: Though Roberts didn’t identify any specific “elected officials,” his admonition comes after Biden “faced … accusations of defiance for his attempts to preserve his student-debt forgiveness policies after the Supreme Court ruled that he’d overstepped his legal authority,” and as “Democratic lawmakers and Trump critics from various points on the political spectrum have predicted that the Supreme Court’s decision in July granting Trump broad immunity from criminal prosecution would embolden Trump and future presidents to engage in legally dubious behavior.” Related read: “‘Lawless’: Trump’s TikTok brief asks Supreme Court to overreach, legal experts say,” by Brendan Bordelon 2. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: “Years of inaction on ‘crisis’ at Secret Service set stage for Trump shooting in Butler,” by WaPo’s Carol Leonnig and Emmanuel Martinez: “In the days before Donald Trump’s July 13 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the Secret Service needed a member of his protective detail to develop a security plan to keep the former president safe as he addressed a crowd of thousands at an open-air fairground. With agents stretched thin by the presidential campaign, the agency turned to a ‘junior’ member of the detail, according to an independent review panel commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security. “In the past, the Secret Service would have trained new agents in a field office for a minimum of five years and had them work at least two more in a protective detail before assigning them to oversee such a large public event, multiple former agents told The Washington Post. The agent put in charge of security at Butler had joined the Secret Service four years earlier and only started in the protective detail in 2023, the panel found.” 3. DARK DAYS: “Nearly all of Puerto Rico is without power on New Year’s Eve,” by AP’s Dánica Coto: “A blackout hit nearly all of Puerto Rico early on Tuesday as the U.S. territory prepared to celebrate New Year’s, leaving more than 1.3 million clients in the dark. Officials said it could take up to two days to restore power. … Nearly 90% of 1.47 million clients across Puerto Rico were left in the dark, according to Luma Energy, a private company that oversees electricity transmission and distribution. By Tuesday night, more than 336,000 clients, including 16 hospitals and Puerto Rico’s water and sewer company, had power back, according to Luma.” 4. I’M STEEL STANDING: In a proposal aimed at neutralizing concerns that Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel could pose national security risks, the Japanese company “proposed giving the U.S. government a veto over any reduction in U.S. Steel’s ‘production capacity’ … according to a document sent to the White House on Monday,” WaPo’s David Lynch and Jeff Stein scooped. Both Biden and Trump have publicly opposed the takeover, as does the United Steelworkers union. What’s next: Though Biden faces a Jan. 7 deadline for a final decision, “administration officials for the first time are considering an approach that would leave a final decision to the Trump administration, said the two administration officials and an industry executive who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   Tax reform is the key to more housing supply. See our plan. | | | 5. THE SUNUNU ALSO RISES: In a wide-ranging exit interview with Lisa Kashinsky, outgoing New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU discussed his belief that the Republican Party is larger than Trump and touched on his plans to remain involved in politics after leaving office. On whether there’s room in the GOP for criticism of Trump: “Look, it’s never easy criticizing the president and the standard bearer of your party, and there’s always that kind of political honeymoon period that happens when you first get elected. But there are already signs of folks that are willing to push back and criticize and say no when they feel like they have to say no. And that should give the American people a big sigh of relief that it’s not the evil dictatorship that the liberal media was telling us it was going to be,” Sununu said. On ruling out a presidential bid in 2028: “I can’t see myself running in 2028. That would be, holy cow, that would be a real change of my plans. I don’t see any path to that actually happening. I’m excited to go back to the private sector.” 6. THE AXIS OF UPHEAVAL: Yesterday, the Treasury Department announced it is issuing new sanctions against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a Russian military intelligence group known as GRU over their attempts to interfere in the 2024 election, NBC News’ Raquel Coronell Uribe reports. In a statement yesterday, Acting Under Secretary of the Treasury BRADLEY SMITH said both countries “targeted our election processes and institutions and sought to divide the American people through targeted disinformation campaigns.” A spokesperson for Iran’s mission to the United Nations and officials from the Russian embassy denied the allegations. 7. GOING GREEN: “Green Energy Firms’ Pitch to Trump: You’re Going to Need a Lot of Power,” by WSJ’s Jennifer Hiller: “The election results set off a wave of unease and employee questions within the clean-energy industry. … One helpful trend for the industry is that after roughly two decades of little to no growth in power demand because of efficiency gains, electricity-usage forecasts have skyrocketed in many states … That trend has allowed companies to take a page out of the playbook of the oil-and-gas industry, which spent the past four years under the Biden administration using terms such as ‘addition, not subtraction’ to talk about energy sources.” 8. GIVE ME LIBERTY: “Patrick McHenry Lets Loose on the Republican Insurgents He Left Behind,” by Eleanor Mueller and Zachary Warmbrodt: “[McHenry] recounted the ‘out-of-body experience’ he had when he assumed power after KEVIN McCARTHY’s ousting. And he talked about how the Republican Party has shifted over his time in office … But that’s not why he’s leaving. Twenty years is enough, he said, plus his chairmanship is over on account of committee term limits, something he still thinks is a great idea.” McHenry on what has changed over his tenure: “The people that are outside of positions of authority in the House — they’re the most frequent guests on media, your most ample quotes and most active online — are not meaningful players internally, almost to a person, in this institution. The rewards, the incentives, have shifted in my 20 years to attention and people assuming that this place is a platform for that attention.” 9. THE NEW REALITY: “Pro-Palestinian activists lambasted Biden and Harris. Trump will be an even bigger dilemma,” by Irie Sentner: “The movement has tended to focus its efforts on who controls the White House and Democrats, whom its leaders view as more persuadable to soften support for Israel. But 15 months into the war in the Middle East, as the GOP trifecta prepares to control the White House and Congress, leaders in the movement find themselves with far less leverage — and much more to lose.”
| | | | POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Denver Riggleman is exploring an independent run for Virginia governor or lieutenant governor. Ritchie Torres sure sounds like he’s running against Kathy Hochul. C-SPAN will control its own cameras for the events of Jan. 3 and Jan. 6. SPOTTED: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and grandchildren at the kids’ bubble show at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne on Sunday. (“My grandkids had a great time and they really enjoyed the bubble show,” Sen. Schumer tells Playbook.) SPOTTED: Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) browsing the home goods at Salt & Sundry on 14th Street in Washington on Monday. TRANSITIONS — Frontline Strategies is adding Jacquelyn Hunter as a digital account director and Riley Wilson as an account director. Hunter was a digital director for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). Wilson previously was a political strategist at HSP Direct. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Fara Sonderling, manager for government affairs at the American Forest and Paper Association, and Keith Sonderling, a member of the Trump transition landing team for the DOL and former EEOC commissioner, welcomed Spencer Chase Sonderling on Thursday. He came in at 6 lbs, 14 oz and 19 inches long. He joins big brother Baron. NEW YEAR’S BIRTHDAYS: Reps. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) (6-0), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) … Vinay Reddy … European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde … Jonah Peretti … Max Richtman … WaPo’s Brady Dennis … James Glassman … Kevin McGrann of Forbes Tate Partners … Stephanie Penn … Todd Webster of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Daniel Arrigg Koh of the White House (4-0) … Brian Frederick of the ALS Association … Shannon Watts … Priscilla Ross … C-SPAN’s Nicole Ninh … Alison (Howard) Centofante … Justin Bartolomeo of Plus Communications … Margot Friedman … Dana Klinghoffer of NBC … Gary Johnson … former Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) … former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine … former Reps. John Sullivan (R-Okla.) and Martin Frost (D-Texas) … POLITICO’s Alex DiNino … Sohrab Azad … Jake Wilkins … Dan Weiss … Rokk Solutions’ Kristen Hawn … Aidan Kohn-Murphy of Gen-Z for Change … Kellie Meiman Hock of McLarty Associates … Giulia Chiatante Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to promote homeownership and boost economic growth.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most. More than 375,000 listings in the $250,000 and under price range are missing from the market.
We’ve worked with Congress to endorse a package of bills with broad support that would unlock housing inventory.
Legislation like the More Homes on the Market Act would incentivize long-term homeowners to sell by increasing the amount of capital gains they can exclude from the sale of a principal residence.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy, and each home sale generates $125,000 in local economic activity and two jobs.
Addressing housing availability in tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unleash housing inventory, and solve a national crisis. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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