News: What to watch in Virginia’s legislative special elections

Monday, December 16, 2024

What to watch in Virginia’s legislative special elections

Dec 16, 2024

TOP LINE

Missing elections already? Don’t worry: Battles in state legislatures are far from over.

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states with regularly-scheduled state legislative elections occurring in 2025, where both lower chambers will be up for election. Democrats currently are in control of both, though their majority is much thinner in Virginia — a margin that could change in the coming months.

In an aerial view, the Virginia State Capitol is shown.

In an aerial view, the Virginia State Capitol is shown on July 12, 2023, in Richmond, Virginia. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

Before the November showdown, Virginia has a few special elections that could set the tenor of the off-year contests. Virginia’s special state legislative elections will be on Jan. 7, leaving a short runway for campaigning around the holidays. Although Democrats are favored to win in most of these races, they will be some of the first elections after the party struggled up and down the ballot in November — putting Democrats’ brand to the test yet again.

Democrats are stressing that they need to keep their majorities, in part, because the legislature is poised to consider a constitutional amendment that would codify access to abortion. The measure needs to pass through the legislature in two consecutive sessions before it could be placed on the ballot, at the earliest in 2026.

Here are the races in the commonwealth to keep an eye on:

— SD-32: Democratic Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam’s win in VA-10 has left this seat in Virginia's upper chamber open. It’s a district that Democrats are favored to hold: Vice President Kamala Harris won this district with 59 percent of the vote, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, compared to President-elect Donald Trump’s 37 percent. She slightly underperformed Sen. Tim Kaine, who earned 62 percent of the vote in this district.

Democrats’ success in this special election will be important, given their 21-19 majority. If Republicans can flip it, it would bring the state Senate to a tie, leading to Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears casting tie-breaking votes.

Democratic state Del. Kannan Srinivasan is running against Tumay Harding, a teacher.

— HD-26: There will also be a special election for a safe Democratic seat in the state House to replace Srinivasan, who announced his resignation as he campaigns for the upper chamber. Harris won 59 percent of the vote, and Kaine won 63 percent.

Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the state House. Democrat JJ Singh, a hotel executive, is the favorite over Republican Ram Venkatachalam, a member of the Commonwealth Board of Trustees for the Science Museum of Virginia.

— SD-10: This is the only seat that Republicans have a good shot at winning in a couple of weeks. Republican Rep.-elect John McGuire, who will be representing VA-05 after unseating Republican Rep. Bob Good in a primary earlier this year, resigned this safe GOP seat. (Good, meanwhile, said he hasn’t ruled out running for something next year.) Trump won the district with 63 percent of the vote, and GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao received 62 percent.

Luther Cifers, a businessperson and political newcomer, will be the GOP’s nominee against Democrat Jack Trammell, a professor who ran for Congress a decade ago.

Cifers defeated a handful of hopefuls for the Republican Party’s nod in Friday’s mass meeting, including self-proclaimed “Trump in heels” Amanda Chase, the former state senator who was censured by the state Senate in 2021 after parroting false claims of election fraud and speaking in support of the Capitol riot. She unsuccessfully ran in the GOP primary for governor in 2021 and lost her reelection bid in the 2023 primary and unsuccessfully disputed the results.

But that might not be the last of Chase. Last month, she floated a run against Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial race, even though Earle-Sears has term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s endorsement in next year’s election. Earle-Sears currently has no prominent primary competition.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com, @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2025 election: 323

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

PRIMARY COLORS — Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) is considering a run for governor of Virginia next year, he told Punchbowl News’ Mica Soellner, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona. “Scott’s mulling the race comes as some Virginia Democrats have raised concerns about the party’s standing with Black voters,” they write. “Scott, the dean of the Virginia delegation, was the first Black member elected to Congress from the state since Reconstruction. And whoever ends up being the Democratic nominee will likely end up facing … Sears — the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia.”

If Scott enters the race, he would be the first major primary challenger to outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney was previously running for governor, but ended his bid to avoid a messy primary with Spanberger.

2026 WATCH — Democratic New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado is “fueling speculation that he may seek to challenge” Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul when she’s up for reelection in 2026, The New York Times’ Jeffery C. Mays writes. “He has done little to tamp down the rumors, telling donors that he plans on running for a statewide office. In an interview, he said that he had no ‘intention’ of challenging Ms. Hochul in 2026, but also allowed that he planned to ‘stay ready’ and that he wanted to be an ‘independent actor.’” Delgado’s adviser added to The Times that “the lieutenant governor was ‘preparing to advance in state government should an opportunity present itself.’”

… Republican Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez “continues to lay the groundwork for a potential challenge” to GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, per USA Today’s Greg Hilburn. “Miguez and others will keep reminding voters Cassidy voted to convict Trump in impeachment trial.” Cassidy already has one major primary challenger, state Treasurer John Fleming.

… Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who lost his primary earlier this year, didn’t rule out running for office again. “Possibly, very slim,” he said to Spectrum News’ Kevin Frey when asked if he’d run in two years. “U.S. Senate? Maybe. Governor? Maybe.” Bowman did say that he’s not considering a run for NY-15, currently held by Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres — another potential gubernatorial candidate in 2026.

… Democratic Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha provided some more clarity on his plans for 2026, when he is term-limited. Last month, he said he did not want to “limit himself” to what office he’d like to run for that year, fueling speculation he could run against Democratic Gov. Dan McKee. He recently told WPRI’s Kim Kalunian that he would be open to serving as lieutenant governor, and thinks the “likelihood” of “finding a partner” who’s running for governor then is “pretty high.” He said he is not interested in serving as lieutenant governor with McKee because he is not “the agent of change.”

… Former Alabama Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis is considering a run in 2026, per 1819 News’ Caleb Taylor. Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who is term-limited in 2026, fired Davis in October after accusing him of mishandling federal grants. Davis told 1819 News that “governor is pretty high to start out a political career,” but he “would consider running for political office.”

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Subramanyam endorsed Spanberger for governor.

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) is not going to run for mayor of New York City next year, his adviser told POLITICO’s Jeff Coltin. Jeff adds that “there's been talk, since a lot of business-types think [Democratic Mayor Eric] Adams' challengers now are too liberal.” Adams, who’s facing a litany of legal troubles, has already garnered a handful of challengers for his reelection bid.

… Former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is not planning to return to centrist group No Labels, where he was previously a board member, he told the Washington Examiner’s Ramsey Touchberry. “He felt the organization strayed too far this year from its congressional mission by wading into presidential politics.” He also “didn’t ‘slam the door’ on the possibility” of making another run for office, but “wasn’t keen on ‘keeping the door open,’ either,” Touchberry writes.

PULL UP A CHAIR — “Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Lawrence Tabas, who has led the party since 2019, will not seek reelection, just after his party secured major wins up and down the ballot last month,” The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Gillian McGoldrick write. “His exit sets up a contested race for the party chair between State Sen. Greg Rothman … and Ted Christian, a former Trump staffer and political strategist. … The key GOP officials backing Rothman include Senator-elect Dave McCormick, U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, former Senate candidate Sean Parnell, and a number of his colleagues in the state General Assembly.”

… “Meshawn Maddock, a longtime conservative activist who was charged with eight felonies because of her role in the 2020 false electors plot, announced Friday that she'll run to be the next leader of the [Michigan] state GOP,” The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger, Beth LeBlanc and Melissa Nann Burke write. She’s looking to replace Pete Hoekstra, whom Trump chose to be ambassador to Canada. State Sen. Jim Runestad is also in the running.

THE CASH DASH

LEGAL LOOK — “Political action committees tied to a Republican state lawmaker filed a legal challenge in federal court on Friday to overturn a campaign finance reform Mainers overwhelmingly voted for in November. Those behind the reform welcome this lawsuit, however, as such a legal challenge is a key part of their plan,” the Maine Morning Star’s Emma Davis writes. “The referendum Maine voters passed on Nov. 5 set a $5,000 limit on super PACs. … [Organizers’] hope is that this lawsuit will eventually make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court and that the highest court will rule that PACs should be regulated.”

AS SEEN ON TV

FL-01 — Republican Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is leaning into his endorsement from Trump in his first spot ahead of the January special election to replace former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz.

TX House Speaker — The Republican Party of Texas is taking the speakership fight to the airwaves, saying that Republican state Rep. Dustin Burrows “sold us out” and picturing him next to Speaker Dade Phelan, who dropped his bid for another term as state House speaker after a challenge from the right. State Rep. David Cook was named the House GOP Caucus’ endorsed candidate for speaker, though Burrows, who is backed by Phelan, says he has enough votes to win when the vote is held next month.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I wish I didn't pull that damn fire alarm, you know what I’m saying?” — Bowman to NY1.

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