Monday, December 16, 2024

Popularity contest in the California Senate

Presented by Food & Water Action: Inside the Golden State political arena
Dec 16, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Blake Jones, Dustin Gardiner and Lindsey Holden

Presented by 

Food & Water Action

California state Senate leader Mike McGuire talks.

California Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire speaks on the Senate floor. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

DRIVING THE DAY: Dana Williamson, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s chief of staff, has stepped down, our colleagues Christopher Cadelago and Melanie Mason scooped this morning. Nathan Barankin, a Kamala Harris alum who recently joined the Newsom administration, will take her place. (More below.)

THE BUZZ: SUCCESSION OBSESSION — California Senate leader Mike McGuire won’t term out until 2026, but already, the conversation about who will succeed him is growing increasingly prevalent around the upper house.

While a concerted push to secure the pro tem post does not appear imminent, the swearing-in of new senators has spurred more private discussions about who might lead the chamber next.

The talks have focused primarily on three senators: Lena Gonzalez, Steve Padilla and Monique Limón, according to 10 people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations. Sacramento Sen. Angelique Ashby has also been floated, but not with the same frequency.

The succession battle could gain speed quickly if and when McGuire announces his future plans, for example, entering the race for state insurance commissioner. (He has already opened a campaign account for that 2026 race.)

None of the possible contenders commented in response to repeated inquiries, and McGuire’s office said only that he is “laser-focused on the work ahead with the next legislative session, and working hard to serve the people of the North Coast and California.”

Here’s what could play into the potential successors’ attempts to amass support:

Lena Gonzalez, the influential insider: Rarely has a lawmaker held the position of Senate majority leader and Latino Caucus chair at the same time, but Gonzalez achieved that status after winning a tight chairmanship race this fall.

Her heightened influence among Latina politicians could prove especially potent. Several senators hesitated to elevate a white man to pro tem last year.

Steve Padilla, the border county mod: Padilla’s greatest advantage would likely be his ability to lock down centrist Democrats who’ve grown even more sensitive to spending and affordability issues after Republicans made progress in California this cycle in both the presidential and state legislative contests. Having a more moderate member pulling strings could conceivably give frontline Democrats more confidence that they won’t be forced into difficult votes on progressive leadership priorities.

Padilla was also on the Chula Vista City Council during President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, lending him experience governing a town near the U.S.-Mexico border that could factor into his pitch as one of the next leaders of California's Trump resistance.

Monique Limón, the well-liked wonk: Limón’s popularity among progressives shouldn’t be undersold in a contest to amass majority support in the smaller Senate Democratic caucus. She also has a penchant for getting into the weeds on policy that has earned her praise in left-leaning pockets of the third house.

Perhaps her biggest opportunity and test is her assignment leading a working group on cap-and-trade renewal. The explosive debate over extending California’s carbon auctions — and how to spend proceeds from them — promises to be a dominant fight in 2025. Limón’s navigation of that issue could help shape her candidacy for pro tem, depending on when someone begins a push to secure votes.

The longest-serving legislator on this list, Limón brings eight years of lawmaking experience but will be forced out by term limits in 2028.

Angelique Ashby, the dark horse: Ashby’s name comes up less often than the other three, but her ambition and political savvy could put her in position to make a run at pro tem should she pursue it.

Representing Sacramento, Ashby’s also playing on home turf. That hasn’t always been an advantage, but it did work out for Darrell Steinberg — who was the first Senate leader from California’s capital since 1883, according to SF Gate.

Ashby, like Padilla, has only been in the Legislature for two years — making both of them less experienced picks who would have a longer runway to enact their agendas.

But Ashby’s persona could be a liability. Senate insiders tell us she’s been on chilly terms with some female senators since the last leadership contest in 2023 — when Ashby played a crucial role in helping McGuire, a white male, line up the votes. Ashby’s colleagues haven’t forgotten that bold gambit.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and bjones@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @jonesblakej.

WHERE’S GAVIN? In Redding for an announcement about jobs and education. Newsom’s 1 p.m. press conference will be streamed on his YouTube page.

 

A message from Food & Water Action:

Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals, endangering public health. Governor Newsom vowed to shut down Aliso Canyon, but his Public Utilities Commission appointees voted to expand it. The PUC will decide Aliso Canyon’s future on December 19th. Learn more.

 
STATE CAPITOL

FIRST IN POLITICO: HAIL TO THE CHIEF — We’re kicking off the week with a major staff shakeup in California politics. Dana Williamson, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s main enforcer in the Capitol, has stepped down from the chief of staff role, as Christopher Cadelago and Melanie Mason exclusively reported this morning. Taking her place is Nathan Barankin, a Kamala Harris alum who recently joined the governor’s office as a senior adviser.

Williamson is a singular Sacramento character, so we asked a handful of Capitol insiders for their reflections or favorite Dana anecdotes:

“Dana had a habit of calling at 10 or 11 p.m. You never knew if it was some life-or-death state crisis. Or her wanting to tell you some dumb gossip about a legislator. Or her excitement that she just unearthed an old Disney princess dress she wanted to give your daughter. That is the beautiful grab bag that is Dana Williamson.” Jason Elliott, consultant and former deputy chief of staff

“I’ve often been asked for advice on the best way to approach the formidable Dana Williamson. I generally share three options — you can love her, you can fear her OR you can FAFO, which is by far the worst option.” Tia Orr, executive director, SEIU California

“The only analogy I can come up with, and she would kill me for it, involves the Dodgers. … I think of her as the Shohei Ohtani of politics. Yes, there have been five-tool players that have come before — people who can hit for average, hit for power, speed, can throw and field. Dana not only can do all those things, but she can also throw a fastball high and inside better than anybody.” — Nick Hardeman, consultant 

“When Dana took this job, she told me she planned to serve for only a year. In typical fashion, she over-performed in her own internal poll. Dana’s accomplishments in her tenure would have made Nancy McFadden damn proud.” — Izzy Gardon, Newsom’s communications director

“Every story I have about Dana is not suitable for publication.” — Teri Holoman, associate executive director, California Teachers Association

 

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CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: PRESSURE POINT — Food & Water Action, an environmental advocacy group, is using Newsom’s national political aspirations to pressure him to move faster to close Aliso Canyon, the site of the biggest natural gas leak in U.S. history in 2015.

The organization is targeting Newsom with a “six-figure ad buy” in presidential battleground states New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada, Food & Water Action exclusively told Playbook. The group is out with a video ad that hits Newsom for not yet fulfilling a promise he made early in his governorship to close the natural gas storage facility by 2027.

Their timing is no accident: On Thursday, the California Public Utilities Commission is set to vote on a plan to look into closing the facility once demand for natural gas falls to a certain level — most likely after 2030. Environmentalists are fuming, calling the proposal an effort to appease utility companies and keep Aliso Canyon open indefinitely.

“Americans are looking for leadership to resist Trump’s assault on our climate,” the ad from Food & Water Action states. “Someone who follows through and won’t back down.”

ABOLITION PROPOSITION — The movement to ban forced labor in prisons is regrouping after a surprise defeat in California, our colleague Emily Schultheis reported Sunday.

After California’s Proposition 6 failed, lawyers and activists within the advocacy drive are looking more closely at how they draft ballot measures to outlaw the practice before putting such constitutional amendments on ballots in as many as 14 more states in 2026.

 

A message from Food & Water Action:

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ON THE HILL

Rep. Nancy Pelosi speaks during an event.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks during an event in Washington, June 23, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP

PELOSI RECOVERING — Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had hip replacement surgery after suffering a fall in Luxembourg that caused her to be hospitalized, reports our colleague Irie Sentner. A spokesperson said the operation was successful, and that Pelosi is “on the mend.”

PATEL POPULARITY — Sen. Adam Schiff called Kash Patel a “conspiracy theorist” and said Patel shouldn’t be confirmed to lead the FBI during an interview on This Week with George Stephanopoulos.

“If Patel is made director of the FBI, then all bets are off,” Schiff said, responding to Trump’s plans to nominate Patel to the post. “This is someone who will do whatever dirty work the president wants him to do.”

Patel is expected to face one of the tougher Senate confirmation fights of Trump’s planned nominees, but our colleague Hailey Fuchs reported Friday that Patel’s chances of getting through have been climbing.

Schiff also said he had communicated with Christine Pelosi, the daughter of the speaker emerita, about the surgery.

“As strong and as tough as she is, I know she'll be back on her feet soon,” Schiff said.

PADILLANOMICS — Sen. Alex Padilla told MSNBC’s The Weekend that the economic threat of Trump’s planned mass deportations is obvious.

“Imagine deporting 4 million, 6 million, 8 million, 10 million workers and what that would do to the difficulty for the private sector to serve and to produce? Yes, prices will go up. It's simple economics,” Padilla said.

“Again,” he added, it would cause “a ripple, exponential, negative impact on the economy. It's horrific.

 

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CLIMATE AND ENERGY

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK — Before Newsom’s crusade against the oil industry, there was Jerry Brown. The four-term California governor went to the mat against Trump’s environmental rollbacks during his last administration, but he also thinks Trump’s climate denialism helped spur the climate movement — and could again. Read our colleagues’ conversation with him in Friday’s California Climate.

TOP TALKERS

ANATOMIZING ELECTIONS — The Los Angeles Times’ Mark Barabak credits organized labor for boosting congressional Democrats in California with a “speak-no-partisanship” strategy.

MEDIA MOVEMENT — McClatchy, the owner of the Sacramento Bee, has merged with a magazine company and is now called the McClatchy Media Company. The deal is one of the largest of its kind in local news in years, according to the organization.

AROUND THE STATE

— Meta wants California Attorney General Rob Bonta to stop OpenAI from becoming a for-profit company. (Wall Street Journal)

— The number of school closures in California is beginning to skyrocket as districts face enrollment declines and the expiration of federal relief money. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— A rare tornado touched down in Santa Cruz County Saturday, flipping over cars and injuring at least five people. (San Francisco Chronicle)

PLAYBOOKERS

WEDDING BELLS — Tami Martin, chief of staff to Assemblymember and Democratic Caucus Chair Rick Chavez Zbur, and Rob (Zack) Grossglauser, founder of Pinnacle Advocacy, were married in a small ceremony in Marina on Sunday.

PEOPLE MOVES — Trump plans to nominate Troy Edgar to be deputy secretary of Homeland Security, the president-elect announced. Edgar served in the department during Trump’s first term and was also previously the mayor of Los Alamitos, California.

— Armando Castro has joined the firm Lowenstein Sandler as a partner in its Emerging Companies & Venture Capital group. Castro has been a Silicon Valley-based corporate lawyer for over 30 years.

— Jordan Panana Carbajal has been promoted to government affairs manager at California YIMBY. He has been with the organization for three years and previously worked as a legislative advocate.

Fifteen lawyers have been promoted to partner at the firm Snell & Wilmer, including Andrew B. Still and Erin Denniston Leach based in the Orange County office, effective March 1. Additionally, three attorneys have been promoted to the role of counsel, including Sarah Hibbard based in the San Diego office, effective Jan. 1, 2025.

BIRTHDAYS — Allison Kustic in the office of Assemblymember Freddie Rodriguez … Emilie Simons … Sony’s Christina MulvihillPaul GordonDevon KearnsHeather KingJacy Reese Anthis

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Sunday): Lenny Young of Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D-Calif.) office … Jeff Le of SecurityScorecard … Julie LazarAlison OmensSalina Valencia in the office of Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur … (was Saturday): Michael OvitzKalman ToppTrey Ditto … (was Friday): Lewis Wolff

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

 

A message from Food & Water Action:

Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals. SoCalGas’ disaster forced thousands to evacuate their homes to avoid further exposure to cancer-causing benzene and other chemicals.

SoCalGas took four months to seal the gas leak. Families near Aliso are still suffering the consequences. Instead of shutting it down like Gov. Newsom promised, the PUC allowed Aliso to expand by 3,000%, perpetuating the public health threat.

Over 150 organizations have come together to call for a shutdown of Aliso by 2027, but the PUC is considering kicking the can down the road instead of protecting communities. Gov. Newsom and allies should stand with families, not SoCalGas’ profits. On December 19th, the PUC will decide the future of Aliso Canyon. Learn more.

 

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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