Thursday, November 21, 2024

How Netanyahu’s arrest warrant scrambles global politics

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By Gabriel Gavin

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An installation of masks representing Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an anti-government protest in Tel Aviv.

An installation of masks representing Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an anti-government protest in Tel Aviv. | Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

RESISTING ARREST — The world is getting smaller for Benjamin Netanyahu. The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued arrest warrants today for the Israeli prime minister and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a bombshell move that has already divided Western nations over how to respond.

In a statement, the ICC ordered the pair be detained to face charges “for crimes against humanity and war crimes” allegedly committed in the year of bloody fighting in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 attacks on the country. An estimated 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in the aftermath and international observers warn humanitarian aid is being held up from entering the blockaded region.

While Israel isn’t a member of the court, 125 countries are — from the United Kingdom and Germany to South Africa and the Seychelles. They would be legally required to arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot on their territory, effectively making him a pariah across much of the globe.

The Israeli politician is the first world leader to face such a warrant since Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was indicted for his role in the abduction of Ukrainian children last year and has since had to sit out a series of international summits after the host countries warned Moscow they would be obliged to detain him.

“An ICC arrest warrant means countries have to think twice before interacting with someone,” a U.S. official granted anonymity to speak frankly told POLITICO ahead of the decision. “In the case of Putin, we’ve seen it’s limited his ability to travel.”

The move risks splitting Israel’s allies and partners, with the incoming U.S. administration already putting itself on a collision course with the court. In a post on social media site X, Michael Waltz, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for national security advisor, said “the ICC has no credibility” and insisted that the allegations had already been refuted.

“You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC and UN come January,” he added.

Meanwhile, Republicans like Sen. Lindsey Graham said that Washington could consider imposing consequences on countries that cooperate with the ruling. “If we do not act forcefully against the ICC after their outrageous decision … we are making a huge mistake,” he said. Even the Biden administration has rejected the move, citing “procedural errors.”

The U.S. itself isn’t a member of the court, and has since 2002 maintained a policy of authorizing the president to use all means necessary to liberate any American or U.S.-allied persons hauled in front of its judges. However, European countries that are part of the court’s jurisdiction now face a dilemma.

Speaking at a press conference today, the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that the warrant “is not a political decision — it is a decision of a court.” According to him, “the decisions of the court have to be respected and implemented.”

Meanwhile, a handful of states, including NATO members like France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Turkey vowed to uphold the ICC’s ruling, and defended the independence of the court.

However, according to Seth Frantzman, an adjunct fellow at the Jerusalem-based, hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the warrants won’t change Netanyahu’s behavior.

“Obviously Israel’s leadership will condemn this ruling, but it remains laser focused on its war with Hamas. The U.S. [has been] Israel’s closest ally for many decades and there’s hope that the next administration will take the lead and encourage European countries to reject this ICC decision,” he said.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin.

 

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America’s 48 million family caregivers spend over $7,000 a year to care for older parents, spouses and other loved ones. They need a tax credit. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.

 
What'd I Miss?

— Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration for Trump’s AG: Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz announced today he is withdrawing his name from consideration as President-elect Donald Trump’s pick as attorney general, noting in a social media post that his nomination had become a distraction. Gaetz held multiple meetings with GOP senators over the past couple of days as he sought to game out his chances of getting confirmed, with Vice President-elect JD Vance assisting in his confirmation process. Even senators who supported him had expressed doubts that he could get confirmed, given he could only lose three Republican votes.

— Wall Street’s top regulator to exit: Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who pursued a sweeping and controversial agenda as Wall Street’s chief overseer over the last three-plus years, plans to step down on Jan. 20, the agency said today. His departure will clear the way for President-elect Donald Trump to install his yet-to-be-named pick to lead the top U.S. financial markets regulator.

— Schumer explains reported GOP deal on judges: The office of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is defending a reported deal where Democrats ceded four appeals court nominations in favor of confirming more of President Joe Biden’s lower-level federal judicial appointees. “The trade was four circuit nominees — all lacking the votes to get confirmed — for more than triple the number of additional judges moving forward,” a spokesperson for Schumer said today.

 

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THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION

NO GO — Donald Trump’s transition team has rejected a push to install a prominent Project 2025 author in a senior role at the Department of Health and Human Services over concerns that his strident anti-abortion views would prove too controversial.

Anti-abortion groups had been lobbying Trump’s HHS secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to select Roger Severino, a longtime anti-abortion stalwart, as the department’s deputy secretary. The installation of Severino, director of HHS’ Office for Civil Rights during the first Trump administration, was aimed at allaying some of the groups’ concerns about Kennedy’s abortion record.

But senior Trump officials rejected Severino because of the anti-abortion policies he outlined in the health care section of Project 2025 — the Heritage Foundation’s roadmap for a second Trump presidency that became a lightning rod on the campaign trail.

ON THE BOOKS — Republican senators expect Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to soon make the rounds on Capitol Hill as he seeks to win their votes for his confirmation to be Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said today Kennedy was likely to journey to the Hill in the coming days, suggesting he’d meet with GOP senators after the Thanksgiving break.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), the top Republican on the HELP Committee, confirmed there has been “some preliminary reach out” to organize the meetings. Cassidy is also a member of the Finance Committee that will ultimately decide whether to send Kennedy’s nomination to the full Senate for a vote.

‘COMPLETELY CLEARED’ — Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, today said he was “completely cleared” by police after being accused of sexual assault seven years ago, his first comments on the matter since a police report was released.

“As far as the media is concerned, I’ll keep this very simple. The matter was fully investigated, and I was completely cleared, and that’s where I’m going to leave it,” Hegseth told reporters at the Capitol today.

Hegseth and Vice President-elect JD Vance were meeting with Republican senators as controversy mounts about misconduct allegations and his hardline positions on personnel policy. Instead of engaging with senators who might be wavering and could upend his confirmation, Hegseth met with some of Trump and Vance’s closest allies, several of whom offered the strongest defense of Hegseth so far.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

WUNSTORF, GERMANY - DECEMBER 15: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius greets soldiers of the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, as they return from Mali on December 15, 2023 in Wunstorf, Germany. Germany is ending its 10-year participation in the multinational United Nations MINUSMA peacekeeping effort in Mali following the termination of the entire mission last summer at the request   of the Mali government. (Photo by Alexander Koerner/Getty Images)

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius greets soldiers of the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, in 2023. | Alexander Koerner/Getty Images

STEPPING ASIDE — Germany’s most popular politician, Boris Pistorius, has ruled himself out of leading the Social Democratic Party into an early general election, opening the way for Olaf Scholz — the most unloved chancellor in living memory — to launch a long-shot reelection bid.

The 64-year-old defense minister said in a three-minute video message released on social media that he was “not available” to run, saying it was his “sovereign, personal and completely my own decision.”

“We have in Olaf Scholz an outstanding chancellor,” Pistorius added, praising Scholz for leading his difficult three-party coalition through years of crisis and attacks on democracy. “Olaf Scholz is a strong chancellor. And he is the right chancellor candidate.”

Opinion polls suggest otherwise, however, with the SPD polling in the mid-teens following the collapse of Scholz’s center-left coalition earlier this month. Friedrich Merz’s opposition Christian Democrats lead on 33 percent, followed by the far-right opposition Alternative for Germany at 18 percent.

‘WORLD WAR III’ — Ukraine’s former military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said that the direct involvement of Russia’s autocratic allies in its war on Ukraine means that World War III has started.

“I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun,” said Zaluzhny, who is now Ukraine’s envoy to the United Kingdom, during a speech at Ukrainska Pravda’s UP100 award ceremony.

“Because in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine. Let’s be honest. Already in Ukraine, the Iranian ‘Shahedis’ are killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame,” said Zaluzhny, adding that North Korean and Chinese weapons are flying into Ukraine.

 

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Nightly Number

7

The number of times that a volcano in southwestern Iceland has erupted since last December after 800 years of silence. The volcano, which erupted again late Wednesday, sent molten lava flowing towards the Blue Lagoon spa, a major tourist attraction. It poses no risk to major air travel, and other eruptions have largely subsided within days.

RADAR SWEEP

‘PDF TO BRAINROT’ — Go on TikTok, or Instagram Reels, or YouTube shorts, and you’ll find something interesting — videos of people talking on podcasts mashed together with soothing, ASMR-like videos of people chopping wood or playing video games or cutting soap. For people with short attention spans, this can keep them engaged in the content. Now, some people are doing their reading for school this way — setting up their PDFs to read aloud and then attaching them to ASMR content. What was once a way to stay engaged in entertainment has become a way to stay engaged in schoolwork. Amanda Silberling reports on the trend for techcrunch.

Parting Image

On this date in 1989: About 200,000 people gathered in Wenceslas Square in Prague in the midst of a peaceful revolt that ultimately ended four decades of communism in what was then Czechoslovakia.

On this date in 1989: About 200,000 people gathered in Wenceslas Square in Prague in the midst of a peaceful revolt that ultimately ended four decades of communism in what was then Czechoslovakia. | Peter Dejong/AP

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A message from AARP:

America needs family caregivers. And they need a tax credit.

Family caregivers struggle to balance the demands of their jobs with caring for their older parents, spouses and other loved ones, leading too many to quit or reduce their hours at work.

Added to that stress, family caregivers spend over $7,000 a year on out-of-pocket expenses to provide this care. They can’t afford it. And we can’t afford to ignore them.

Family caregivers cover the costs to help older loved ones with:

  • Transportation
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  • And MUCH more.
That’s why AARP is calling on the new Congress to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit--so America’s family caregivers can get some financial relief.

 
 

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