Tuesday, October 22, 2024

That's odd...

Total Wealth

BROUGHT TO YOU BY MANWARD PRESS

Be Wary of Rising Commodities Prices

Robert Ross

Robert Ross
Speculative Assets Specialist

I received a great note from one of our readers after my essay on October 8, titled "This 'Clock' Says It's a Good Time to Invest"...

Thank you. I'm tired of the sky is falling doom and gloom. It's nice to have a breath of fresh air for a change. - Subscriber I.S.

Most of the investment commentary you read these days likely has a bearish angle. They'll delve into the implications of yield curve inversions, the SAHM Rule, or which political candidate is better for the markets.

I am not worried about any of these things. And while most signs point to us being relatively early in the economic cycle, I'm not doing you or my portfolio any favors by ignoring red flags in the market...

And there's one that should be on your radar.

SPONSORED

Free Election Webinar!

MAL Elect
 

This election could have a tremendous impact on your investments... and what you do with your money RIGHT NOW could make or break your 2025.

Alexander Green will discuss the #1 investment strategy for election season at our FREE online event, October 29 at 2 p.m. ET.

Click to reserve your FREE spot today.

 

Staying Bullish Has Been the Right Move

Most of you know I have a cautiously optimistic view on stocks.

That's been the right move for the last 24 months. And I've been bullish the entire way up, telling my 500,000 social media followers in October 2022 that stocks likely bottomed after the S&P 500 rallied after a hot CPI print.

I doubled down on this stance in early 2023 by saying we were are the start of a new bull market. This was despite everyone from Elon Musk to Jamie Dimon saying a recession was looming.

And as we entered 2024, when Wall Street had their lowest expectations for the S&P 500 in a decade, I told you to stay long the market.

While I've been consistent in my outlook over this period, a few odd things have happened since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 50 basis points.

An Unusual Reaction

When the Fed cuts rates, we generally expect U.S. Treasury yields to fall in line. It's a fundamental move by the central bank to stimulate growth - lower yields translate to lower rates on mortgages, car loans, and other consumer credit. But this time, things are playing out differently.

Since the rate cut on September 18, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.74% to as high as 4.17%.

Mortgage rates have followed suit... and that's not great news for equities.

SPONSORED

Trading Legend Reveals New AI-Powered Tool

Nate Bear
 

Nate Bear, the trader who turned $37k into $2.7 Million in 4 years, just revealed his groundbreaking wealth-building initiative...

A cutting-edge trading research tool powered-by AI that is finding explosive setups at an UNGODLY speed.

See the details for yourself:

>>> Watch The DEMO Here<<<

 

Remember, higher bond yields have historically triggered market pullbacks, as we saw in both mid-2023 and mid-2024. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding stocks, making bonds more attractive.

Now, here's where it gets interesting...

Commodities are also rallying. In fact, gold has been the best-performing asset in the world in 2024...

The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns

View larger image

At the same time, oil is rising rapidly thanks to unrest in the Middle East...

Crude Oil Futures

View larger image

While base metals like copper, nickel, and aluminum are at or near their highs for the year.

This combination of rising bond yields and commodity prices is a red flag.

As we saw in late 2021 and early 2022, when commodities rise, it often points to higher inflation. Companies face increased costs on raw materials like oil and metals, which ultimately trickles down to the consumer, driving inflation.

That's why this rally in commodities, while profitable, has me cautious for what comes next.

SPONSORED

Top Stock Forecaster:
"Buy These Stocks Before Trump Takes Office"

Shah Gilani
 

Weekly Fox Business guest who accurately predicted President's Trump's first Stockwave says the Dow could skyrocket to 75,000 with Trump back in office.

The last time he was in office, stocks rose as much as 3,480%...

See what stocks could surge this time:

Click here to see the details.

 

The Fed Must Thread the Needle

The Federal Reserve now faces a tricky challenge.

Typically, the playbook says to cut rates in order to lower borrowing costs and boost the economy. But when inflation expectations surge due to rising commodity prices, the Fed could be forced into a tough spot. They might pause rate cuts or, worse, hike rates sooner than anyone anticipated.

This might explain why U.S. Treasury yields are rising instead of falling. The market seems to be pricing in higher interest rates... not lower.

Just last week, there was a 0% chance of no rate cuts at the next Fed meeting. Those odds have jumped to 22%. Meanwhile, the market had been expecting a 50-basis-point cut by November, but the bond market clearly has a different idea.

And here's the weird part: it's the bond market leading the Fed, not the other way around.

With Treasury yields climbing despite rate cuts, I'm adding more commodity exposure to the Breakout Fortunes portfolio. But other than that, I'm not yet making any drastic portfolio changes.

But I will be watching the 10-year Treasury yield closely. If it keeps rallying, we could be in for a weaker period for stocks.

If my outlook shifts, you'll be the first to know.

Stay safe out there,

Robert

Want more content like this?

YES
NO
 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Fashion’s Asian Growth Engines

TikTok Blocks Beauty Filters; US Retailers' Black Friday Strategy ADVERTISEMENT WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY: THU...