| | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | 
This is Antony Blinken’s 11th trip to the Middle East since the Gaza war began following Hamas militants’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. | Pool photo by Nathan Howard | With help from Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is back in the Middle East this week. Maybe somewhere along the way, he can clearly answer the following: Does the U.S. want an immediate stop to the fighting in Lebanon? The U.S. messaging on the topic is confusing at best. And the confusion seems to be designed to give Israel room to keep attacking Hezbollah. Blinken’s trip comes after White House envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN’s stop Monday in Beirut. Hochstein declared that conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon had spun “out of control” and that the U.S. wants it to end “as soon as possible.” But Hochstein didn’t call for an immediate cease-fire. He also said the United Nations resolution (#1701) that helped end an earlier conflict in Lebanon was “not enough” to finish the current one because it had never been truly implemented. The U.S., he said, wants that resolution to remain the basis for peace but also is working with various parties to “get to a formula that brings an end to this conflict once and for all.” (In the past, Hochstein has told Israeli officials privately that the U.S. supports its military moves against Hezbollah.) Blinken, who met with Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and other top figures in Israel today, and his team have offered slightly different messages. In a statement ahead of the meeting with Netanyahu, the department said Blinken would call for “a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that fully implements U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.” In a statement after the meeting, and after Hochstein’s comments were reported, it said Blinken called for a “diplomatic resolution along the Blue Line that includes full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.” (Emphasis added is ours.) Notably, he doesn’t call for an immediate cease-fire. The State Department’s briefings haven’t clarified the confusion in recent days. Spokespersons say the U.S. “ultimately” wants an end to the fighting in Lebanon while expressing support for Israeli military strikes against Hezbollah. When asked about Hochstein’s messaging, spokesperson VEDANT PATEL said Monday that the envoy was talking about how committing to 1701 wasn’t enough. “What we want to see is something in action,” Patel said. “But that being said, we are continuing to work with the government of Lebanon, the state of Lebanon, as well as the government of Israel to get a formula that brings this conflict to an end for once and for all. We are ultimately seeking out a diplomatic resolution.” If you’re Netanyahu, you’re probably listening to all of these messages and hearing what you want — Hochstein, not Blinken, effectively controls the Lebanon file, and his statement that 1701 has not been enough and that some new “formula” is in the works buys you leeway to keep bombing Hezbollah infrastructure. Meanwhile, Lebanese civilians continue to get caught in the crossfire. The State Department’s messaging — it wants peace, but not just yet — adds to Netanyahu’s leeway. Our past reporting also indicates some Biden administration officials see Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah as a potentially positive turning point for the region — a chance to remake it. No doubt Netanyahu is well aware of that. This is Blinken’s 11th trip to the region since the Gaza war began following Hamas militants’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. He will likely address the media at various stages. Let’s hope he is crystal clear about what the Biden administration wants.
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The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | MEEKS WANT MORE: It’s unclear what will come of Blinken’s marathon run of meetings, but one top lawmaker wants to see muscular action from Israel in response to U.S. pleas for a cease-fire in Gaza, our own JOE GOULD writes in. Asked in a CNN interview today whether the U.S. has enough leverage to advance a cease-fire as Blinken visits the Middle East, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee said, “I think, and I hope, that Prime Minister Netanyahu listens to [what] Secretary Blinken has to say — and Secretary [LLOYD] AUSTIN.” Meeks added that the U.S. needs to work with Saudi Arabia and other nations in the region “to make sure Hamas does not exist” and ensure Palestinians have a leader that respects Israel’s right to exist. Still, Meeks said Gaza urgently needs humanitarian relief. “There must be ways: Israel has to make sure that food and water electricity are getting in,” he said. “The humanitarian concerns are grave and deep.” UKRAINE ON THE IMF WEEK AGENDA: The U.S. is close to finalizing its contribution to a major G7 loan to boost Ukraine’s war effort, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said today. As our own MICHAEL STRATFORD reports , Yellen told reporters today that “we’re 99 percent there and it’s nailing down just a couple of relatively small things,” adding “We are very close.” The U.S. will provide $20 billion towards the $50 billion loan, which would be repaid in part by way of income generated from frozen Russian assets and provide Ukraine with needed financial assistance ahead of the U.S. election. It’s not the only step the administration is looking at this week amid high-level meetings of the International Monetary Fund and a G7 finance ministers meeting to support Ukraine. As Michael also reports (for Pros!), Yellen promised new sanctions against Russia that could come “as soon as next week.” ODNI WARNS ABOUT RUSSIA, IRAN: The U.S. government is warning that Russia and Iran are looking to incite post-election violence in an effort to undermine Americans’ confidence in the outcome of the election. As our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!), the Office of the Director of National Intelligence briefed reporters today and offered the starkest assessment to date on Russia, Iran and China’s efforts to peddle divisive lies in the period between Election Day and the inauguration. Russia is also working to amplify disinformation and conspiracy theories about Democratic vice presidential nominee TIM WALZ, in an effort to boost the Trump campaign. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team:@dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper,@nahaltoosi,@PhelimKine,@ErinBanco,@connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary,@reporterjoe, @magmill95,@johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | ARAB VOTERS BACKING TRUMP: Another poll is suggesting that Arab American voters might be pretty cleanly split between DONALD TRUMP and KAMALA HARRIS two weeks out from election day. As Semafor’s MORGAN CHALFANT reports , a new poll from Arab News and YouGov found that 45 percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would likely cast ballots for Harris. The survey of 500 Arab Americans was conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of 5.93 percent. Thirty-nine percent of Arab American voters surveyed also said that Trump was more likely to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while only 33 percent said the same of Harris. The poll follows another similar finding from the Arab American Institute; a survey they released earlier this month found Trump and Harris essentially tied with Arab voters. And it comes as Harris struggles in Michigan and other states with large Arab American communities to thread the balance between supporting the Biden administration’s Israel policy, while voicing more empathy for civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering in the Gaza Strip.
| | | CHARTING THE CYBER COURSE: Former cyber officials have a plan for how the U.S. should approach cyber policy going forward, regardless of who wins in November. As our own MAGGIE MILLER scooped , dozens of officials on both sides of the aisle set out 40 recommendations aimed at creating a pathway forward to expand the Biden administration’s cyber policy work. Among the suggestions are pushes to create a government task force to begin bringing together existing cyber regulations, a review of the national cyber strategy released last year, addressing cyber workforce gaps; continuing work between government and private sector; and developing a “continuity of the economy plan,” if a cyberattack majorly disrupts government operations. The recommendations reflect the bipartisan consensus in Washington that more needs to be done to beef up the U.S.’ cyber reach in the face of increased foreign threats to U.S. digital infrastructure and the push for clear domestic and international cyber policy targets.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — APPROVING DISAPPROVAL: A coalition of over 110 organizations is calling on Congress to pass joint resolutions of disapproval and block arms sales to Israel, alleging that U.S.-made weapons are being used in violation of U.S. law. “Continued arms transfers to the Israeli government are contrary to U.S. law and the Biden administration’s own arms transfer policy, which include restrictions on arms transfers to any country based on human rights, international humanitarian law, and humanitarian assistance criteria,” the groups wrote in a letter. The signatories include human rights group DAWN, the non-interventionist Quincy Institute think tank and humanitarian groups like Oxfam America. JOHN CHAPPELL, U.S. advocacy and legal advisor for the Center for Civilians in Conflict, which spearheaded the letter, told NatSec Daily that “by voting for these joint resolutions of disapproval to block some of the weapons most implicated in likely war crimes, the Senate can stand up for the rule of law and the protection of civilians.” The letter’s release coincided with an announcement from the Pentagon Inspector General today that it is investigating the end use of U.S.-provided weapons by the Israeli military. As Joe reports, the Pentagon is looking into whether sensitive items, like missiles, night vision devices and drones, are being used, stored and secured properly by the Israeli Defense Forces.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GOP’S UN WARNING: A group of at least 25 GOP lawmakers are crafting legislation that would cut off U.S. funding to any United Nations agencies that downgrade or restrict participation with Israel. They plan to introduce the legislation, called the Stand with Israel Act, when Congress reconvenes in November, according to a draft copy first obtained by NatSec Daily. The legislation is unlikely to pass in this Congress with Biden in the White House and Democrats controlling the Senate. However, it offers the starkest warning sign yet to the United Nations of how a GOP-controlled Washington could start playing hardball with the world body if the Republicans are victorious in either presidential or congressional elections next month. The legislation is being led by Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The U.N.’s own ties to Israel are nearing a breaking point after Israel banned U.N. Secretary-General ANTONIO GUTERRES from entering the country . Israel had accused Guterres of being biased against Israel, a charge Guterres denies. Top U.N. officials and major powers at the U.N. have sharply condemned Israel over its handling of the war in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Israel has been accused of firing on U.N. peacekeeping positions in southern Lebanon, drawing fierce backlash from France, Italy and other countries that contribute to the peacekeeping mission there. But Republicans view the U.N. as a top target should they gain more power in the upcoming U.S. elections, and have routinely accused the world body of having a sharp anti-Israel slant. PETER YEO, senior vice president of the United Nations Foundation, argued that any efforts to cut funding to U.N. agencies are misguided — as it is U.N. member countries that are allegedly targeting Israel rather than the U.N. agencies themselves. He used a hockey analogy for the Washington D.C. residents: “It’s like cutting off funding to the Capital One Arena just because the Capitals aren’t playing well. It’s counterproductive.” He also said cutting funding to the U.N. would reduce U.S. clout and influence at the world body, to the benefit of Washington's adversaries. “This would be giving China and Russia exactly what they want.” LASH THAT LEAKER: Add the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat to the list of lawmakers calling for accountability after the public disclosure of highly classified intelligence documents describing Israel's preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran, Joe also reports. “I think that the FBI and others are doing the kind of investigation to find out how and who leaked this information,” Meeks said on CNN today. “I think it’s very serious. And I want this investigation conducted and whoever did leak it should be brought to justice.” The FBI announced Tuesday that it is probing the alleged leak of the documents. The papers seem to have been produced by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and outline U.S. assessments of Israeli Air Force and Navy operations, derived from satellite imagery dated Oct. 15 and 16. The Senate Armed Services Committee’s ranking Republican, Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), has called the disclosure “extremely alarming.” “Whoever committed this outrageous act is putting our ally at risk, and they need to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” he said in a statement.
| | TALIBAN’S TIRADE: The Taliban has banned images of any living things, as it steps up its repression and stringent interpretation of Islamic law. As Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s ABUBAKAR SIDDIQUE reports, depictions of humans and animals, which the Taliban judges have souls, are now prohibited in Afghanistan. This includes photos and videos of living things displayed on computers and cell phones, as well as other visual representations. It’s a major intensification of the Taliban’s harsh implementation of Sharia law, and has prompted some human rights groups to warn it could further limit already-scant press freedoms in the country. HESHMAT WAJDANI, a spokesperson for the Federation of Afghan Journalists in Exile, said the move “amounts to erasing the media and freedom of expression in Afghanistan.”
| | | | — JOSH ALTMAN is now acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for Senate affairs. He most recently was team chief for policy at OSD legislative affairs. — ALEX DAVIDSON is now acting team chief for policy at OSD legislative affairs. He most recently was a special assistant at DOD. — CHARLES MAKINGS is now deputy administrator of the Maritime Administration. He most recently was assistant administrator for legislative affairs at the Transportation Security Administration. —BEN CHANG will be vice president of global comms at the Council on Foreign Relations. He most recently has been vice president for communications and university spokesperson at Columbia University, and formerly worked at the National Security Council and U.S. Foreign Service.
| | — ELISABETH BRAW, POLITICO: We need a whole-of-society approach to intelligence — VIKTORIIA NOVIKOVA, NATALIIA SIROBAB and IVAN ANTYPENKO, New Lines Magazine: In a propaganda move, Russia targeted and deported disabled children from Ukraine — MONIKA SUS and DOMINIK JANKOWSKI, War on the Rocks: Harnessing the power of the EU-NATO partnership — DAVID VON DREHLE, The Washington Post: Venezuelan gangs terrorizing my hometown? This I had to see.
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: A recap of Moldova's elections and EU referendum — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: A discussion on "the U.S. International Economic Agenda" with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Explosive triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Assessing the impact of mano dura policies on democracy in Latin America — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Contesting Russia: Lessons from central and eastern Europe — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Understanding China's strategic path to great power status Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who constantly sends us mixed messages about her desired editorial direction for this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always crystal clear.
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