Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Coming soon: the crypto Congress

Presented by Structured Finance Association: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Oct 22, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Jasper Goodman and Sam Sutton

Presented by Structured Finance Association

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QUICK FIX

Washington has two weeks left to fixate on who will hold power on Capitol Hill next year. One answer is already beginning to emerge: the cryptocurrency industry.

A $160 million super PAC spending spree by digital asset companies is poised to usher in a crop of new lawmakers who could turn the crypto sector’s long-held policy dreams into law in the near future.

As Jasper reports in a new story, the result is likely to be the most crypto-friendly Congress ever.

As many as 13 new pro-crypto candidates could ascend to seats in the

House next year with backing from the industry's network of super PACs, which have spent big to promote allies and block critics in races across the country. The potential House members range from progressive Democrats who tout digital assets as a tool for financial inclusion to Republicans who bash the Biden administration’s crypto policy and say the technology can create “economic freedom.”

Crypto groups spent big in an array of Democratic primaries to ensure that nominees for winnable open seats would support the sector's lobbying goals. Top beneficiaries include Shomari Figures of Alabama, Emily Randall of Washington, Yassamin Ansari of Arizona, Julie Johnson of Texas and Eugene Vindman of Virginia.

Meanwhile, Republicans’ campaign to retain control of the House has gotten a major boost from the industry, particularly candidates in swing districts. Crypto super PACs’ top House GOP targets have been incumbents who are in tough re-election races, including California Reps. Michelle Steel, David Valadao and Mike Garcia.

The Senate is expected to gain several pro-crypto members, including Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah), who are all but guaranteed to win races in their respective states. Republicans in nearly every key battleground Senate contest are crypto proponents, meaning that any seats the GOP flips will deliver a new ally.

It all illustrates the niche digital asset industry’s stunning rise as a force in American politics. Crypto is used by just a fraction of the U.S. population, but industry executives’ willingness to dump tons of money into the political system — from their companies’ bank accounts and their own — has helped make policymakers pay outsized attention to their cause.

IT’S TUESDAY — Busy week. If you’ve got tips or pitches, send them my way ssutton@politico.com.

 

A message from Structured Finance Association:

BASEL III CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS: The BASEL III Endgame proposal touches nearly all aspects of banking in America. The Structured Finance Association opposes a provision in B3E that would arbitrarily and excessively punish institutions simply for turning illiquid loans into liquid securities. Existing capital standards already incorporate post-crisis reforms and add a surcharge for securitization. Under the Basel III proposal, millions of people and businesses could lose access to low-cost credit because the cost of securitization would rise. Learn more at www.structuredfinance.org.

 
Driving the Day

The IMF and World Bank will hold press briefings on the organizations’ outlooks for the global economy, financial stability and the G-24 starting at 9 a.m. … SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will speak at Bloomberg’s Global Regulatory Forum, which starts at 9 a.m. … The Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law’s Fintech Week conference begins at 9 a.m. with remarks from Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, followed by Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) and FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill … Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra will speak at the eighth annual Philadelphia Fed Fintech Conference at 10:20 a.m. …

Incoming — Well, I guess we know what Chopra will be talking about at the Philadelphia Fed. The CFPB this morning released new rules that address how financial institutions handle customer information, a huge development that will affect how banks and fintechs access data, Katy O’Donnell reports.

The rule requires businesses to heed customer requests to share information with their competitors. It will also force banks to make personal financial data more freely available to consumers.

“With more digital technologies at our disposal, we must ensure that this does not result in greater consolidation, rather than openness and decentralization,” according to Chopra’s prepared remarks. “For the U.S. to ensure that our financial system is advancing opportunities for households, businesses, and the economy, our policies and regulations must create more power for individuals to avoid being captive and instead exercise their liberty to do business with someone new.”

Dis-Barred?Donald Trump may try to demote Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr if he wins a second term in November, WaPo’s Andrew Ackerman reports. The legality of the maneuver is questionable, but it might be easier than firing Chair Jerome Powell — a frequent subject of Trump’s ire. The former president has said he would like to have more say in how the Fed sets interest rates. Still, it still might be a “tall order” even if Republicans retake the Senate, per Ackerman.

The Billionaire’s ClubTrump’s fundraising operation is increasingly reliant on contributions from billionaires like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson, according to Bloomberg’s Bill Allison. Trump had previously generated the bulk of his campaign cash through small-dollar donors giving $200 or less. Now, “the former president’s political operation has raised nearly twice as much money — $514.7 million — from donors giving $1 million or more to super political action committees, compared to the $260 million his campaign has raised from small-dollar donors,” per Allison.

Agenda setter Eleanor Mueller reports that California Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez will introduce a bill today that would create new tax credits for first-time homebuyers, addressing a major component of Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic agenda. "We started having these discussions on this kind of tax incentive program more than a year ago," Gomez said. "So when [Harris] announced it ... I was like, 'OK, this is exactly what we're thinking about,' and it just aligns perfectly with what we're trying to do."

Tune in – POLITICO financial services editor Zach Warmbrodt will interview Harris campaign economics adviser Gene Sperling on Thursday at 8 a.m. at the Institute of International Finance annual membership meeting in Washington.

 

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Wall Street

“Over time” — Will the presidential election matter for markets? Not according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

“I’m tired of hearing this is the biggest election in your lifetime. The reality is over time it doesn’t matter,” Fink, who leads the world’s largest asset manager, said at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association event on Monday per the FT.

“Unfortunately, there’s too much preoccupation with whether the market’s going up or down at any one time, any one quarter,” Fink said. “It really doesn’t matter.”

— Fink also bemoaned how neither Trump nor Harris is doing enough to explain how they’ll address the U.S.’s growing federal debt. “The only way we can tackle this deficit is to grow the economy above trend line, and the only way we’re going to be able to grow the economy above trend line is to unlock capitalism,” he said, according to P&I’s Brian Croce.

The Economy

The economy gap A new Washington Post-Schar School poll released Monday found that the presidential race is a dead heat. Unfortunately for Harris, the poll also contained warning signs in voter sentiment when it comes to both the economy and inflation. A majority of voters in key states said the economy is headed in the wrong direction, even as macro indicators reflect a stable labor market and falling inflation. Nearly 70 percent of probable Harris voters said inflation is getting worse.

How bad is it? — The Trump and Harris campaigns have made housing affordability a major theme of the 2024 election. The economic obstacles to making home ownership more attainable for the average American family are massive. Bloomberg’s Ann Choi, Mark Niquette, Michael Sasso and Alexandre Tanzi report that “it could take years to make homeownership affordable,” even with interest rates poised to continue falling.

At the regulators

Discrimination lawsuit — Via Katy: “The Justice Department on Monday sued Rocket Mortgage LLC for allegedly discriminating against a Black homeowner by undervaluing her home based on race in a required appraisal.”

Not a game, not a game. Practice. — The Securities and Exchange Commission plans to focus more on regulating how firms integrate AI into their operations over the next year, Declan Harty reports. The regulator disclosed its plans in an annual report laying out its examinations priorities.

Big ruling — Reuters: “The U.S. Supreme Court declined on Monday to hear a conservative challenge to job protections for the leaders of the federal consumer product safety watchdog in a case that would have given the justices a chance to reassess a 1935 precedent that limits a president's ability to fire certain agency heads.”

 

A message from Structured Finance Association:

New proposed capital rules under Basel III Endgame could raise costs on everything from personal mortgages to business credit. These changes would arbitrarily double the capital that banks must reserve for securitized loans, making it harder for banks and others to offer low-cost credit to consumers and businesses. These proposed rules on securitization capital requirements would be significantly more restrictive than even the stringent European Union regulations. Learn how these changes could affect your access to credit at www.structuredfinance.org.

 
Jobs report

Nahiomy Alvarez is now senior adviser for debt strategy and policy at the Treasury Department. She most recently was senior manager for markets policy at Cboe Global Markets. — Daniel Lippman 

Sarah Kapnick is joining JPMorgan as global head of climate advisory. She previously was chief scientist for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. More from BloombergLippman

 

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Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Declan Harty @declanharty

Eleanor Mueller @eleanor_mueller

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Sam Sutton @samjsutton

 

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