Former President Donald Trump will return to New York today to pitch the city’s corporate elite on an agenda that many Wall Street analysts believe would raise prices and hamper growth. Trump’s appearance before the Economic Club of New York at noon will mark his latest effort to woo business leaders who have grown exasperated with President Joe Biden’s regulatory and foreign policy agenda. Trump’s pitch to lower taxes and roll back rule changes resonated in those circles when Biden was still his opponent, but Vice President Kamala Harris has reignited the Democratic base and provided high-level donors with much more excitement. Democrats in the tech and financial services industries generally believe a Harris administration would be friendlier to their interests than Biden — she has already pledged to scale back his plan to raise taxes on investment gains, Brian Faler reports. She has also also erased some of Trump’s polling advantages on economic matters. The momentum shift raises the stakes for Trump’s remarks today. He is no longer facing an incumbent president whose low approval ratings and limited ability to deliver a clear economic message provided easy targets for attack. Under Harris, Democrats have pivoted to the offensive, labeling Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports a “national sales tax” that would raise costs for American families and hurt the economy. Think tanks and big bank analysts have raised similar red flags. When asked about the potential impact of a Trump presidency on Wednesday, one bank CEO responded via text with a chart that projected U.S. tariff rates would climb to levels not seen since the Great Depression. “Business leaders have to pay attention,” the executive said. Among certain Trump allies, there’s an acknowledgment that financiers are increasingly worried about how the former president’s policies would affect both markets and the overall economy. A common argument they make is that Wall Street analysts should instead view the tariff proposals as a public negotiating tactic with foreign governments. Another is that economists haven’t taken into account how any economic softening caused by higher levies on imports would be mitigated by the effects of other Trump policies, including lower taxes, the expansion of oil and gas production and lighter regulatory burdens. Will that message resonate with Economic Club members? Club Trustee Greg Mankiw, an economics professor at Harvard who chaired George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, told MM that Trump might be better off sticking to a low tax/light regulation message. “If I were him, those are the two things I think would hit home with this crowd,” Mankiw said. Some of Trump’s other priorities, including on trade, are “clearly not popular with the business community.” But don’t expect a pivot. “President Trump is very proud of his economic record. There doesn't seem to be any reason why I believe he would need to shift his policy approach,” said Joseph Lavorgna, a managing director and chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and a former top economic adviser in the Trump White House. “Maybe you don't like his policies, that's one's prerogative, but he's proud of his record, as I think he should be,” Lavorgna added. “What's the incentive for him to change in a meaningful way?” IT’S THURSDAY — Are you going to the Economic Club of New York luncheon? Want to hang out after? I’ll be there, email me at ssutton@politico.com.
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