💰 Axios PM: The Trump economy

Plus: Youth vaping drops | Thursday, September 05, 2024

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Amazon   Axios PM By Mike Allen · Sep 05, 2024 Good afternoon. Today's newsletter, edited by Sam Baker, is 429 words, a 1.5-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.     1 big thing: Wall Street wary of Trump trade wars   Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Emily Elconin/Getty Images   A new Trump administration would likely reduce economic growth and raise prices, Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin writes. A victory by Vice President Harris would bring more steady-as-she-goes economic policy. 💰The latest: Trump doubled down on familiar plans during an economics-focused speech today in New York, promising to impose new tariffs and cut corporate taxes. 🔮 What they're saying: The economy is shaped by countless forces beyond presidential policies, but two recent reports from Wall Street economists predict that trade wars under a Trump administration would slow down the U.S. economy. Goldman Sachs says a Trump victory — with divided government or Republican control of both houses of Congress — would result in a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP in the second half of next year. Nomura economists estimate that Trump's planned tariffs would increase inflation by 0.75 percentage points in 2025. If Vice President Harris wins — and if the Democrats control the House and Senate — Goldman predicts a "very slight boost" to GDP on average between next year and 2026. Get Axios Macro     2. 🚭 Youth vaping hits 10-year low   Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Youth vaping is down by almost 25% over the past year, the CDC and FDA said today. Roughly 8% of high school students and 6% of middle school students said they regularly use e-cigarettes — the lowest rates in a decade. 💨 Between the lines: 88% of teens who vape said they use flavored products — mainly fruit, candy and mint flavors. The FDA has led an aggressive crackdown on flavored vapes, beginning in the Trump administration. Critics argue that flavors appeal to teens, not adult smokers who might benefit from replacing cigarettes with vaping. Go deeper.     A message from Amazon "Since starting at Amazon I've been promoted 5 times"     Maydeen turned a temporary job at Amazon's Edison, New Jersey fulfillment center into a career. Here's how: Amazon helps employees thrive with comprehensive benefits and on-the-job skills training programs to grow their careers. "Amazon offers so much training and support," she said. See more.     3. Catch me up   Former President Trump speaks at the Economic Club of New York today. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg via Getty Images ✂️ Former President Trump said he would put Elon Musk in charge of a new commission on government efficiency if he's reelected. Go deeper. 💊 The DEA will allow increased production of some ADHD medications, to help ease shortages. Go deeper. ⚖️ Hunter Biden attempted to enter an Alford plea, under which a defendant maintains their innocence but acknowledges prosecutors have enough evidence to secure a conviction, in his federal tax trial today. Prosecutors seemed surprised by the plea and urged the judge to reject it. Go deeper.     4. 🌄 There goes the sun   Data: NOAA; Map: Jacque Schrag, Erin Davis, Kavya Beheraj/Axios The days are getting shorter as fall approaches, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes. Parts of the northern U.S. will lose more than three hours of daylight between June 20 (the summer solstice) and Sept. 22 (the fall equinox), according to NOAA's handy Solar Calculator. Share this story.     A message from Amazon "With free skills training, there's no limit to what you can achieve"     Kathy turned a job at Amazon's Appling, Georgia fulfillment center into a robotics career with the help of Amazon's Mechatronics and Robotics Apprenticeship. The impact: "After completing the apprenticeship, I doubled my income," she said. Read more success stories.   Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Advertise with us. Axios, PO Box 101060, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: