| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher parades through Red Square during the general rehearsal of the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow on May 7, 2022. | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images |
With help from Daniel Lippman, Joe Gould and Phelim Kine
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Iran is shipping hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to aid its war in Ukraine, leading to a wave of new condemnations and economic reprisals from the U.S. and its allies in Europe. But beyond diplomatic pressure and sanctions, officials and lawmakers tell NatSec Daily that Western governments have few avenues left to try and stop Iranian missile shipments to Russia. The Iranian missile shipments to Russia mark a “dramatic escalation” in the war in Ukraine, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned ahead of his visit to Kyiv on Wednesday. It also adds new urgency to the debates in the United States about whether Ukraine can win the war. That question became a key moment in the presidential debate between DONALD TRUMP and KAMALA HARRIS, in which Trump repeatedly refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win. (Scroll down to Election 2024 and Broadsides for more about the debate). Two U.S. and two European security officials who spoke to NatSec Daily conceded that the raft of newly announced retaliatory sanctions alone likely won’t be enough to deter Moscow and Tehran from deepening their military cooperation, given that both countries are already sanctioned to the hilt and have grown accustomed to their pariah status in the West. These officials spoke on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorized to discuss sensitive national security matters. That mirrored reactions on Capitol Hill. “The Iranians have been very adroit for decades of avoiding sanctions, shipping things in the clandestine way,” Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.), the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told NatSec Daily. “I mean, if it comes down to it, Russian aircraft could fly into Iran, pick up equipment and fly back, and that would be very difficult to interdict.” He added: “I'm sure we're thinking of ways to frustrate [them], the best ways might be economic, rather than military.” Officials widely agree that the Iranian missile shipment constitutes a major milestone in Russian-Iranian military cooperation, which has accelerated as Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ramps up his government’s global quest to replenish its military supplies amid its flagging war effort in Ukraine. Iran had shipped Russia attack drones previously but held back from delivering more powerful weaponry. Russia has also sought help from China and North Korea to shore up its munitions stockpiles and defense industrial base. The new missile shipments from Tehran pose a major headache to Washington, as it has to weigh how its policy responses will affect both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, where Iran has an outsized role in the Israel-Hamas war through its proxies. Some experts and supporters of Ukraine have complained that Western governments aren’t doing enough to cut Russia off from its foreign suppliers, particularly Iran. “If we were serious about helping Ukraine win, we would be finding ways to shut off and isolate Russia from its external help,” BEN HODGES, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told NatSec Daily. “The Israelis are always finding ways to disrupt Iran’s dangerous activities. Why are we not able [or] willing to do this?” The Biden administration announced fresh sanctions on 10 Russian and Iranian officials and six entities involved in weapons transfers on Tuesday, and coordinated the rollout of sanctions with top European allies. “Iran has opted to intensify its involvement in Russia’s illegal war, and the United States, along with our partners, will continue to stand with Ukraine,” Deputy Secretary of the Treasury WALLY ADEYEMO said in announcing the new sanctions. The U.S. government hasn’t disclosed precisely how many Iranian missiles it expects Russia to receive or on what timetable, but has broadly said that Iran agreed to supply “hundreds” of Fath-360 ballistic missiles, with a range of around 75 miles, and they could show up on Ukrainian battlefields within weeks. (The Iranian Foreign Ministry has denied sending missiles to Russia, however, dismissing the U.S. announcement as “baseless and false.”) “Ultimately these are weapons that when employed in greater numbers are designed to keep Putin in the fight for longer,” said BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, an expert on Iranian missile systems at the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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We’re transforming the way the U.S. Navy deploys combat system capability to defend against sophisticated threats. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – McCAUL’S AFGHANISTAN MEETING: On the day before the Sept. 11 anniversary, AHMAD MASSOUD, the leader of a key Afghan opposition group, his top foreign policy hand ALI MAISAM NAZARY and other members of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan met with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in. Topics in the roughly 20-minute meeting included updates on the resistance to the Taliban, the humanitarian crisis in the country and the ties between the Taliban and other terror groups, Nazary told NatSec Daily in a brief interview. Nazary also said that McCaul was very interested in their reaction to the recent House report on the Kabul airport attack. In the group’s requests for help from Congress, Nazary said the message the NRF, which is represented by lobbyist ROBERT STRYK, delivered to McCaul was simple: “NRF is the only force that is facing 21 regional and international terror networks. So, it’s basically our fight is the continuation of the war on terror since we’re not only fighting for our security, but we’re fighting for global security today.” Massoud joined the meeting via Zoom since he’s not in Washington. House Foreign Affairs Committee spokesperson LESLIE SHEDD said in a statement that McCaul met with Ahmad Massoud after hearing from numerous constituents on the matter. READ: At least two Saudi officials may have deliberately assisted 9/11 hijackers, new evidence suggests by ProPublica’s TIM GOLDEN TO RESTRICT OR NOT: The White House is finalizing a plan to lift some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-provided weapons against targets in Russian territory, our own ERIN BANCO, PAUL McLEARY and JOE GOULD report. The plans are coming together in concert as Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary DAVID LAMMY traveled to Kyiv today, where both men met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and announced over $1.5 billion in new aid to Ukraine’s energy grid and loan guarantees. But both countries stopped short of making any announcements about restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American and British-made weapons. Kyiv and its allies have applied pressure on Washington and London to remove the restrictions. Early this morning, a group of liberal and progressive national security hands released a letter calling on both governments to allow the unfettered use of U.S. and U.K.-provided weapons against targets in Russian territory. “Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate,” they wrote. “We urge you to listen to your partners in Kyiv this week and allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate targets in Russia with the weapons the U.S. and U.K. have provided. Let Ukraine defend itself.” SOUTH CHINA SEA SOS: Manila is calling in reinforcements to push Beijing toward a diplomatic resolution of rising Philippines-China tensions in the South China Sea, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The Philippines is convening a mini-summit in New York City of representatives of more than 20 countries during the United Nations’ General Assembly later this month to discuss China’s increasingly aggressive incursions into Manila’s waters. Participants will brainstorm how “to talk some sense” into Beijing to prevent it from making “the wrong move that we’re all fearing,” said Philippine ambassador to the U.S., JOSE MANUEL "BABE" DEL GALLEGO ROMUALDEZ, per Reuters reporting Wednesday. The Philippine embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment. WALK LIKE AN EGYPTIAN: The State Department has told lawmakers it’ll give Egypt the whole tranche of military aid it was allocated this year, a U.S. congressional aide familiar told Robbie. The aide was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue. The release of the funding, which was restricted amid concerns about Egypt’s human rights record, comes as Cairo has played an integral role in peace talks between Israel and Hamas. MORE TROUBLE IN LANGLEY: Another sexual misconduct case is rattling the Central Intelligence Agency, per the Associated Press’ JIM MUSTIAN and JOSHUA GOODMAN. DONALD ASQUITH, a veteran CIA officer, is accused of groping and forcibly kissing one of his colleagues in front of other CIA employees, in an incident that occurred just days after the nation’s premier intelligence agency promised to fix its handling of misconduct within its ranks. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | ABOUT LAST NIGHT: It was a surprisingly busy night for national security watchers, as both candidates traded barbs about the Israel-Hamas war, tensions in the Middle East, transatlantic security collaboration and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Heads, of course, turned when Trump dodged a softball question from ABC News anchor DAVID MUIR about whether a Ukrainian victory against Russia would be in the United States’ strategic interests. And Trump certainly tried to bash Harris for the Biden administration’s handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, migration from Central America and the Israel-Hamas war. Harris countered with her own jabs about Trump’s ties to autocrats like Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN and Chinese leader XI JINPING. But it’s worth noting that China barely got mentioned. China came up only in discussions of trade and the Covid-19 pandemic, and moderators did not ask the candidates to articulate their view of how Washington should manage competition with China or respond to escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Neither candidate raised the question of Taiwan’s security. And neither candidate directly explained how they would contain growing nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran. Read some of our colleagues’ own foreign policy takes: — The world can now see Kamala Harris in its most powerful job by our own NAHAL TOOSI — Trump just showed how he’d approach the war in Ukraine by our own JOSEPH SCHATZ
| | ELECTRIC GRID UNDER ATTACK: A new study from Check Point Research argues that U.S. electric utilities saw a 70 percent increase in the number of cyberattacks against their systems, as foreign adversaries have sought to breach key pieces of U.S. critical infrastructure. As Reuters’ SEHER DAREEN and SRIVASTAVA VALLARI report, the attacks have so far failed to down any utility, but the sharp rise in the number of attacks, and the continued reliance of U.S. utilities on outdated software to run their operations has raised worries that actors like China, Iran and Russia could weaponize the electric grid during a future conflict, causing widespread havoc and chaos in the process.
| | | THE SPEAKER’S GAMBIT: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON pulled a vote on a six-month spending bill that would have kept the government financially afloat through the election, our own CAITLIN EMMA and OLIVIA BEAVERS report. The decision to pull the bill hours before it was scheduled for a vote comes as fears mount that a divided Republican caucus may thwart efforts to avert a government shutdown. As loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember, officials and analysts have warned that a pre-election shutdown could, among other things, thwart military assistance to Ukraine and trigger automatic pay cuts for career foreign service officers. Military leadership and top defense appropriators have called on Congress to pass a full spending bill. But Johnson has little room for error. Democrats are mostly opposed to the bill, which includes requirements that individuals show proof-of-citizenship before registering to vote, meaning Johnson has little room to maneuver beyond his caucus. Meanwhile, a dozen Republicans have come out against the measure for various reasons and Johnson faces pressure from Trump to keep election security provisions in the legislation.
| | TRANSATLANTIC DEBATE TROLLING: Trump wasn’t the only one chafing during last night’s debate between him and Harris — plenty of comments, mainly from Trump, got under the skins of European governments. As our own SEB STARCEVIC, GABRIEL GAVIN and JÜRGEN KLÖCKNER report, the German Foreign Ministry issued a particularly caustic statement in response to Trump’s comments about Germany’s energy sector, writing: “Like it or not: Germany’s energy system is fully operational, with more than 50 percent renewables. And we are shutting down — not building — coal and nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest.” They also lashed Trump directly, adding “PS: We also don’t eat cats and dogs” in reference to his widely debunked claims that immigrants in Ohio are eating people’s pets. Meanwhile, the Kremlin protested that Harris and Trump were each using Putin as a cudgel against the other, per our own ELENA GIORDANO. “We really, very much do not like it, and we still hope that they will leave the name of our president alone,” said Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV. Even HILLARY CLINTON got caught in the crossfire. After the 2016 Democratic nominee shared an explainer about Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN, in light of his surprising mention in the first hour of the debate, Orbán’s political director swiped at her on X, writing: “May I share with you what I think the death of #democracy is: the desire to imprison your political opponents, the failure to organize elections transparently, and the attempt to replace dissatisfied voters with migrant voters. Which country do you think this applies to?” “Every reasonable person thinks of this when reading your remarks: ‘first take the log out of your own eye’” BALÁZS ORBÁN added.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – FRANK A. ROSE JR. has founded the consulting firm Chevalier Strategic Advisors, which, according to its website, provides "specialized strategic leverage to navigate the complexities of an evolving geopolitical landscape and global marketplace," Daniel writes in. Rose picked the name because he was awarded the Ordinul National "Serviciul Credincios" (Knight) by Romania for his work on a 2011 missile defense agreement. Rose most recently was principal deputy administrator of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration, where at the end of his tenure he faced an internal investigation into allegations of sexual harassment and a hostile work environment, allegations he denied. A DOE spokesperson declined to comment on the status of the investigation. — J.A. Green & Co. is adding SHANNON GREEN as vice president of government affairs, EDDIE “FONZ” CROSSMAN as vice president of government affairs, and AARON ONOFF and NEHA SHRIDHAR as research associates. Green is a House Armed Services Committee and House Intelligence Committee alum. Crossman is a retired Navy captain who most recently worked in several legislative affairs role for the Navy. — BAILEY CHILDERS is now vice president of external relations at the Bipartisan Policy Center. She previously was vice president of external relations at the German Marshall Fund.
| | — MARIAM BARGHOUTI, New Lines Magazine: Israel’s war spreads to the West Bank — PAUL ANGELO, Foreign Affairs: A less lethal Latin America — ROBYN DIXON, The Washington Post: Meet MARGARITA SIMONYAN, queen of Russia’s covert information wars
| | — Atlantic Council and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, 8 a.m.: Narrative warfare in Taiwan — Senate Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on the nominations of Lt. Gen. STEVEN NORDHAUS to be general and chief of the National Guard Bureau; and Vice Adm. ALVIN HOLSEY to be admiral and commander of the U.S. Southern Command. — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: A hearing on “Anti-NGO (non-governmental organization) Laws and Other Tools of Democratic Repression" — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m.: A discussion with Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH on "Ground Forces and Great Powers.” — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 11 a.m.: Navigating the U.S. policy in Syria: Challenges, opportunities, and the path forward — Council on Foreign Relations, 1:30 p.m.: A discussion with U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD on "the future of multilateralism and U.S. commitments to reforming the United Nations Security Council to be more inclusive, representative, and legitimate." — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: A discussion on "Elections Under Threat: Priorities for 2024, 2025, and Beyond," focusing on autocratic efforts around the world to curtail political freedoms — United States Institute of Peace, 4 p.m.: Statecraftiness: Mapping power and influence in the Pacific islands — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.:A discussion on Amb. JOHN SULLIVAN’s book "Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir from the Front Lines of Russia's War Against the West." — Jews United for Democracy, 5 p.m.: Virtual briefing to discuss "the status and progress of hostage and cease fire negotiations," part of the "Israel In Crisis" series. — Brookings Institution, the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, and the Institute for Global Engagement, 7:30 p.m.: American foreign policy toward Ukraine, Russia, and NATO beyond 2024 Thanks to our editor, Ben Fox, against whom we have few avenues. Thanks to our producer, Raymond Rapada, who is helping us isolate Ben on the international editing stage.
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