Saturday, September 28, 2024

How the running mates are running

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

MIDDLE EAST TINDERBOX — Hezbollah confirmed that Israeli strikes had killed its leader HASSAN NASRALLAH, Gabriel Gavin and Jamie Dettmer report. Nasrallah had been in charge of the militant group for more than 30 years, and his death “would send a seismic shock across the Middle East and would run the risk of triggering a wider regional war that Israel’s Western allies have been scrambling to avert.”

Though Israel has trumpeted its success this week in damaging Hezbollah, U.S. officials are worried about what could come next: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that a full war between Israel and Hezbollah could yield as many or more casualties as in the Israel-Hamas war.

The view from Tehran … Iran’s supreme leader, AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah with whatever means they have and assist them in confronting the … wicked regime (of Israel).”

The view from Washington There is no comment yet from President JOE BIDEN, but House GOP leaders are just out with a statement calling on his administration “to end its counter-productive calls for a cease-fire and its ongoing diplomatic pressure campaign against Israel.” They said of Nasrallah, “The world is better off without him.”

NYC QUAGMIRE — “Eric Adams Could Be in Deep Trouble. Here’s What Our Insiders Say,” by Ankush Khardori: “Four veteran New York reporters dissect New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS’ rise and fall — and what’s to expect next.”

Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, speaks at a campaign event Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Traverse City, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) has a new strategy of drowning reporters in boos when he’s answering questions. | Paul Sancya/AP Photo

THE MEN WHO WOULD BE VEEP — The first and only debate between Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will happen Tuesday night at 9 p.m. In the runup to the 90-minute CBS-hosted event in NYC, the two vice presidential candidates are getting their closeups, so we thought we would check in on how they are being covered.

Let’s start with a pair of excellent pieces by two of our favorite politics writers, our own Adam Wren and NYT’s Jess Bidgood, who each tackle Vance’s strategy of drowning reporters in boos when he’s answering questions.

Wren describes how the call-and-response “has become a prominent feature of Vance’s rallies”:

“In North Carolina days earlier, Vance faced a question about whether DONALD TRUMP’s campaign still endorsed the scandal-ridden Republican gubernatorial candidate MARK ROBINSON. A woman behind Vance lifted her hands and then shot her thumbs down at the question as others behind her rained boos.

“‘It’s sort of like the Greek chorus in an AESCHYLUS play,’ [Traverse City Record-Eagle reporter PETER] KOBS told POLITICO minutes after the rally, adding that he is immune to such attacks after a career in journalism that has led to at least five death threats. ‘The Greek chorus is there to amplify and, you know, put emotion in it. But hating the media is a juvenile approach to politics.’”

Bidgood adds this bit of color:

“He gets to play off the hectoring crowd. He alternates between castigating the media and, sometimes, defending an individual journalist being yelled at by the crowd.

“‘Kit is one of the good ones, but she won’t be able to go back to CNN after I just said that,’ Vance said of the CNN producer KIT MAHER at a raucous campaign rally in Phoenix, after the crowd jeered her. She then continued with her question, asking what Vance and Trump would do, if elected, to prevent school shootings.”

Wren notes that this is all relatively new, with the strategy of including “the full tableau of a human wall behind him” starting just a month ago, which is when Vance was on the hunt for a better media strategy.

 

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Meanwhile, NYT’s Katie Rogers breaks down the latest NYT-Siena polling on Vance and Walz which continues to show an advantage for the Democrat in the “blue wall” states:

“Mr. Walz was viewed favorably by 44 percent of likely voters in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin and unfavorably by 41 percent. Mr. Vance was viewed favorably by 42 percent of likely voters in those states and unfavorably by 48 percent, the polls found. Both men were chosen in part to appeal to voters in the Midwest.

“Voters were more likely to say that Mr. Walz was honest, trustworthy, and caring than they were to say the same about Mr. Vance.”

Walz is spending today in Ann Arbor attending the Michigan-Minnesota football game. Per AP’s Joey Cappelletti, he’ll head back up to northern Michigan for his final debate prep. (Walz was spotted yesterday in tiny Harbor Springs; Traverse City resident Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG has been playing Vance in prep sessions.)

As for Vance, AP’s Julie Carr Smyth reports that the Ohio senator has been prepping at home in Cincinnati, “where his wife, USHA, and Trump campaign strategist JASON MILLER have joined members of his inner circle to get Vance ready.

“Minnesota U.S. Rep. TOM EMMER, the House majority whip, has been helping verse Vance in the Minnesota governor’s ‘folksy’ Midwestern style, as the team pores over Walz’s past debate performances, the source said. It’s perhaps not as far a stretch for Vance — an Ohio native with Appalachian roots made familiar to many by the ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ book and movie — as it might be for another candidate.”

Vance’s past anti-Trump views are still be excavated. WaPo’s Peter Jamison obtained private messages that Vance wrote about Trump in 2020 in which Vance pilloried Trump’s record in office, writing that he “has just so thoroughly failed to deliver on his economic populism (excepting a disjointed China policy).”

Vance also criticized conservatives for underplaying the danger of Covid-19, expressed some openness to Medicare for All, and indicated that he had turned down a job in the Trump administration. Though Vance has long said his feelings about Trump evolved from his initial criticism in 2016, these messages show the skepticism lasted much longer. (Vance says he voted for Trump later that year.)

BTW, the great 2024 microphone debate that dominated the Biden-Trump and Harris-Trump events is moot here: Walz’s and Vance’s mics will be hot for the entire 90 minutes on Tuesday night.

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

POLL POSITION — NYT/Siena have VP KAMALA HARRIS +2 in Wisconsin, +1 in Michigan and +9 in Nebraska’s 2nd District, as Trump has made up some Rust Belt ground from last month. He also leads by 6 in Ohio. Fox News finds Pennsylvania tied among likely voters and Trump ahead by 1 in North Carolina. Democrats lead in all the corresponding statewide races: SHERROD BROWN +4, ELISSA SLOTKIN +5, TAMMY BALDWIN +7, BOB CASEY +9 and JOSH STEIN +16.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden is speaking virtually to the NABTU Tradeswomen Build Nations Conference this morning.

On the trail

Trump will speak in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Harris will speak at a political event in San Francisco at 5:45 p.m. Eastern, before heading to LA for the night.

Vance will attend a town hall in Monroeville, Pennsylvania, at 1 p.m., hosted by evangelical preacher and Christian nationalist LANCE WALLNAU, as the Philly Inquirer previews. Vance will then hold a rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania, at 5:15 p.m.

Walz is in Michigan, where he kicked off a voter registration event in Van Buren Township, will go to the University of Michigan/University of Minnesota football game in the afternoon, and will head to Harbor Springs in the evening.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump attends a town hall campaign event at Macomb Community College, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in Warren, Mich. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Donald Trump is planning major changes to the Justice Department in a second term. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. SIREN FOR DEMOCRACY: “Trump Plots Massive Shake-Up of Justice Department,” by WSJ’s Alex Leary and Sadie Gurman: “[B]ehind the scenes, his campaign has begun work on his most personal priority: tearing up the Justice Department. … He is determined to remake it in ways that excite firebrands in his base — by replacing career employees with loyalists, by ordering investigations into those who have prosecuted him and by enlisting the Justice Department on the conservative side of the latest culture wars. …

“Trump and his allies have been considering candidates for attorney general who share his expansive view of presidential authority and would be more willing to do the White House’s bidding.” And the Supreme Court’s new immunity ruling could remove some guardrails around the president ordering DOJ to follow his imperatives. There could also be big policy changes around protecting local police, punishing progressive DAs, reining in the FBI, taking aim at college protesters, elevating religious liberty over LGBTQ+ rights and more.

Among the names mentioned as potential AG picks: JOHN RATCLIFFE, Sens. ERIC SCHMITT (R-Mo.), MIKE LEE (R-Utah) and TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), Missouri AG ANDREW BAILEY, Kansas AG KRIS KOBACH and MARK PAOLETTA.

To wit: Trump yesterday threatened on Truth Social to commence federal prosecution of Google over his claim that its search results elevate negative stories about him. Google said the report that yielded Trump’s anger was flawed and incorrect.

2. INFLATION NATION: The Personal Consumption Expenditures index slowed way down in August, rising 2.2 percent annually compared to 2.5 percent in July, per NYT’s Jeanna Smialek. That’s a major development signaling that the end of the fight against inflation is imminent: The Fed’s preferred metric is now very close to its 2 percent target. Inflation hasn’t been this low since the start of Biden’s presidency. Core inflation, taking away fuels and food, did clock in a bit higher at 2.7 percent. “Friday’s report offered signs that the economy is pulling back — but not crashing.” The data has gotten some economists wondering whether the central bank might drop another supersized interest rate cut in November.

3. SPOILER ALERT: As ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. tries to get off some states’ ballots and stay on others’, largely to boost Trump, he got a series of tough decisions yesterday. The Supreme Court rejected his appeal to land on the New York ballot, per CNN. The Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected his effort to remove himself from the state’s ballot, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. And a federal appeals court rejected his attempt to drop off the Michigan ballot, per The Detroit News.

Nonetheless, Kennedy has managed to scrub his name from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina voters’ options, Brittany Gibson notes — which could make a big difference at the margins in a close race if would-be Kennedy voters switch to Trump. Reporting from Philadelphia, Reuters’ Stephanie Kelly and Jarrett Renshaw find that at least some Kennedy supporters are indeed going for Trump now, largely out of antipathy for Democrats.

4. BORDER SONG: In Arizona yesterday, Harris went even further than Biden in striking an anti-immigration note and getting tough on the border, the Arizona Republic’s Stephanie Murray, Ronald Hansen and Daniel Gonzalez report from Douglas. Harris said she’d change the threshold for lifting Biden’s historic restrictions of asylum, making it harder to undo. And she vowed to step up criminal prosecutions of undocumented border-crossers, including with felonies for people caught more than once. Harris slammed Trump as unserious about actually solving the country’s immigration system, and said she’d pair tough restrictions with a more humane approach.

5. WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT: NYT’s Annie Karni has an interesting story about Republican candidates seeking to burnish their swing-voter appeal by highlighting their wives and kids — and one candidate who’s highlighting someone else’s wife and kids. Virginia congressional contender DERRICK ANDERSON’s campaign has filmed multiple scenes of him with a friend’s family (he doesn’t have his own kids), though it hasn’t used the footage in ads. Anderson’s spokesperson criticized the Times story and said he wasn’t doing anything out of the ordinary. (See the image and decide for yourself.)

6. KEVIN ROBERTS STRIKES BACK: “Heritage: Director of Project 2025 Did Not Resign — He Was Fired,” by RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann: “[PAUL DANS] left persona non grata after a two-year tenure defined by public feuds with the Trump campaign and a concentrated effort by Democrats to make Project 2025 into an election year liability for Republicans. But political controversy was not the cause of his departure, as was previously reported. Dans was instead fired by Heritage after an investigation found repeated incidents of professional misconduct and mistreatment of colleagues.” Dans rejected this version of events of Heritage and said they’d made him a “scapegoat.”

7. HACK ATTACK: “Iranian Hackers Charged With Breach of Trump Campaign Records,” by WSJ’s C. Ryan Barber and Dustin Volz: “In a 37-page indictment, prosecutors alleged three members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps engaged in a wide-ranging operation that targeted current and former U.S. government officials. … [DOJ] named the alleged hackers as MASOUD JALILI, SEYYED ALI AGHAMIRI and YASAR BALAGHI, charging them in Washington, D.C., federal court with crimes including providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization.”

 

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8. LLOYD AUSTIN VS. THE FINE PRINT: “Death Penalty May Be Off Table for 9/11 Suspect No Matter How Case Unfolds,” by NYT’s Carol Rosenberg in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba: “[KHALID SHAIKH] MOHAMMED’s 20-page plea agreement is under seal at the court. But five people with knowledge of its contents described the breach of contract clause … It says if the government withdraws from the deal and the defendants have not violated their side of it, any future trial takes the death penalty off the table. One called the bailout clause ‘a poison pill.’”

9. CHUCK SCHUMER’S LUCKY NUMBER: “Democrats See a Chance to Beat Trump on Judicial Confirmations,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse: “With the 213th federal judge of the Biden era confirmed by the Senate this week, Democrats are now hoping to take advantage of a post-election lame duck session to finish putting their own stamp on the judiciary … Trump was able to name 234 mainly conservative judges to the federal bench. But the results of the Nov. 5 election and the willingness of Democrats to dedicate themselves to confirming judges could determine how aggressive they will be in an effort that could require the Senate to spend weekends approving nominees.”

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies

A political cartoon is pictured.

Bill Bramhall - NY Daily News

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“The War That Would Not End,” by The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer: “Inside the year-long American effort to release the hostages, end the fighting in Gaza, and bring peace to the Middle East.”

“David Foster Wallace and Democracy,” by David Masciotra in Liberties

“Maylia and Jack: A Story of Teens and Fentanyl,” by ProPublica’s Lizzie Presser: “Police knew she was selling fake Percocet but did not stop her. His mother sought the right treatment for his addiction but could not find it. Two teens got caught up in a system unprepared to handle kids on either side of the drug trade.”

“The Deserter,” by the NYT Magazine’s Sarah Topol: “This is a story told in five parts. Because of the security risks faced by Russian deserters, pseudonyms are used throughout. The photographs, however, are of the real-life subjects.”

“‘Hit him harder, make him drool blood’: Businessman Leonid Nevzlin’s alleged vendetta against the associates of Alexei Navalny,” by The Insider’s Roman Dobrokhotov and Christo Grozev

“Sent by God,” by Slate’s Molly Olmstead: “They’re gathering by the thousands. They’re growing fast. They believe that Democrats are possessed by demons — and that Donald Trump must be president again at any cost.”

“Inside Tucker Carlson’s Traveling Conspiracy Show,” by Rolling Stone’s Stephen Rodrick: “Cow humanoids, calls for Diddy’s release, Trump’s discussions with his gardener: On the road with Tucker and special guests J.D. Vance and Alex Jones.”

“The other British invasion: how UK lingo conquered the US,” by Ben Yagoda in the Guardian: “It used to be that Brits would complain about Americanisms diluting the English language. But in fact it’s a two-way street.”

“Why Is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” by Scientific American’s Sarah Scoles: “NASA’s Artemis moon program faces challenges the Apollo missions never did.”

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Tanya Chutkan gave Donald Trump’s lawyers until Tuesday for their next filing.

JD Vance and Tim Walz shouldn’t expect to be fact-checked by their debate moderators.

Mark Robinson suffered second-degree burns at a campaign event, but is doing better now.

Anna Paulina Luna’s old primary opponent was charged with threatening to have her killed.

Al Sharpton and the Central Park Five worked to get out the vote for Kamala Harris.

Magic Johnson, Billie Jean King, Steve Kerr and more are “Athletes for Harris.”

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — The U.S. Agency for Global Media announced that it has signed a lease for a new headquarters to house the agency and Voice of America. It’s heading to 1875 Pennsylvania Ave. NW over the next several years.

OUT AND ABOUT — EMILYs List held its annual NYC conference and luncheon yesterday. SPOTTED: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, New York state Sen. Jessica Ramos, New York Assemblymember MaryJane Shimsky, Michigan state Sen. Sarah Anthony, Virginia state Sen. Lashrecse Aird, New Hampshire state Sen. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka, Florida state House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell, Angela Alsobrooks, Maryland state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, Michelle Vallejo, Laura Gillen, Maya Harris, Emmy Ruiz, Jessica Mackler and Christina Greer.

TRANSITION — Lora McCray has been named SVP of diversity, equity and inclusion for the American Bankers Association. She previously was VP for DEI engagement and outreach officer at Freddie Mac.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Jen O’Malley Dillon Scott Mulhauser of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Steve SchmidtDel Quentin Wilber … POLITICO’s Patrick D’Silva, Bob McGovern and Ariana LawsonChristian VasquezMatt Corridoni of Rep. Jake Auchincloss’ (D-Mass.) office … White House’s Vanessa Valdivia Chrys Kefalas of the National Association of Manufacturers … Brian Rogers of Bullpen Strategy Group … Puck’s Abby Livingston Molly Crosby of Planned Parenthood … Rory Murphy of MGM Resorts International … Chris GeidnerWilliam Thompson Jon SummersLaura Quinn of Catalist … Dan Crawford of Moyer Strategies … Ocean Conservancy’s Janis Searles Jones … WaPo’s Emily HeilBhavna Ghia … former Reps. Curt Clawson (R-Fla.) and Steve Largent (R-Okla.) (7-0) … Marty Machowsky … Florida GOP’s Helen Aguirre Ferré Kelsie WendelbergerPoppy MacDonald of USAFacts … former Vermont Gov. Madeleine Kunin (91) … American Cleaning Institute’s Wanda Stokes and Shawnté Furbush-Jones Antonio WeissJon Hukill of Crimson Atlantic Communications … Sarah Murphy (4-0)

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) … Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) … Janai Nelson.

CNN “Fareed Zakaria GPS”: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian … Tony Blair … Ronen Bergman.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Donald Trump Jr. … Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) … Kari Lake … Polish President Andrzej Duda … John Ratcliffe.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Dan Slepian and JJ Velazquez. Panel: Jeh Johnson, Kelly O’Donnell, Danielle Pletka and Julio Vaqueiro.

ABC “This Week”: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) … Jeff Flake … John Kirby. Panel: Rachael Bade, Susan Glasser, Jonathan Martin and Vivian Salama.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper … Larry Hogan … retired Gen. Stan McChrystal.

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont … Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) … Whit Ayres … Michael Meehan. Panel: Bob Cusack, Julie Mason, Tia Mitchell and Catherine Lucey.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. Panel: Francesca Chambers, Mollie Hemingway, Mario Parker and Kevin Walling. Sunday special: Scott Bakula.

CNN “State of the Union”: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … John Kirby. Panel: Scott Jennings, Ashley Etienne, Karen Finney and Erin Perrine.

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