Saturday, August 10, 2024

Breaking down the Harris border pivot

Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice: The unofficial guide to official Washington.
Aug 10, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

CADELAGO CRACKS THE CASE — “The other Black politician who says he was with Trump in that near-fatal chopper crash,” by Chris Cadelago: Former LA politician NATE HOLDEN “connected with WILLIE [BROWN] on Thursday. ‘I said, “Willie, were you almost in a helicopter crash with [DONALD] TRUMP also?” He said “No.” I said, “I was the one, Willie.”’ …

“‘He either mixed it up,’ Holden said. ‘Or, he made it up. This was just too big to overlook. This is a big one. Conflating Willie Brown and me? The press is searching for the real story and they didn’t get it. You did.’”

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris stands during a campaign rally.

VP Kamala Harris has reenergized the party and reengaged disaffected voters. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

HARRIS RIDES THE WAVE — Good morning from an excessively sunny Phoenix, where the weather forecast (today’s high, 108) matches the red-hot vibes surrounding VP KAMALA HARRIS’ campaign right now.

Five days into her swing-state barnstorming tour with Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, we have seen with our own eyes vivid proof that her replacement of President JOE BIDEN atop the Democratic ticket has reenergized the party and reengaged disaffected voters.

We have watched in multiple states as people have waited in lines for hours and, in some cases, fainted from the hot weather. (Rest assured, plenty of water and medical personnel have been on hand.)

Last night, we saw more than 15,000 pile into the Desert Diamond Arena for what some claimed was the largest political rally in Arizona history. Later today, Harris and Walz head to Las Vegas for a similar event in an 18,000-seat venue, fresh off receiving the most important endorsement in Nevada politics.

Big rally crowds do not equal voting majorities, of course. And the week has not been all sunshine for the Democratic ticket: Walz has had to fend off, and in some cases acknowledge, serious questions about his military record. Harris is facing increasingly sharp criticism about when she will subject herself to in-depth questioning. And spending from Trump and Republican groups on potentially devastating attacks is quickly ramping up.

But there is mounting evidence that the Harris boom is real, and that she might be exactly what her party needed: a broadly appealing, competent and energetic candidate who can harness the nation’s lingering distaste for Trump.

The latest proof comes in this morning’s round of NYT/Siena swing-state polls — the surveys that, more than any other, drove Democratic anxiety about Biden’s underperformance. They now show Harris with a 50 percent to 46 percent edge over Trump among likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Another poll, per the Nevada Independent, has her up 6 points in that fourth battleground.

“While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states that have long been key to the party’s victories — or defeats,” NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Ruth Igielnik write. Harris’ favorability ratings have risen by as much as 10 points there, and she had a significant edge on whether she is “more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern” than Trump

Still, voters prefer Trump “when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race,” they write — which made Harris’ visit here, to a border state, all the more critical yesterday.

 

A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:

Supreme Court reform is an issue whose time has come. Public trust in the Supreme Court has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded, and term limits for the justices has broad bipartisan support. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. The result? A Court with more legitimacy that better reflects American values. No one should have that much power for life. Learn more about term limits.

 

INSIDE THE BORDER PIVOT: The Phoenix trip coincided with Harris’ first real attempts to sketch out a message on immigration and border issues after four years where she and Biden mostly tried to change the subject as record numbers of migrants streamed across the southern border.

Harris’ task isn’t necessarily to persuade border-focused voters that she would be tougher than Trump. But there were signs yesterday that her campaign is trying to harness the flywheel effect of the campaign reset and her polling surge to at least defuse the issue and reassure voters who might have doubts that she is engaged on the issue.

As Eugene and Elena Schneider wrote last night, she tested that message in front of an Arizona crowd by (1) highlighting her record as AG of “border state” California in combating transnational crime; (2) promising to fight for “strong border security”; (3) attacking Trump for killing bipartisan border legislation earlier this year; and (4) promising to sign a similar bill if she became president. A new campaign ad released yesterday touched on similar themes.

It’s worth reflecting on the transformation that Harris (and much of the rest of the Democratic Party) has undergone since 2019, when she joined several other presidential hopefuls on a debate stage in agreeing that migrants crossing the U.S. border should not be subject to criminal penalties.

Now, Harris’ position is that “unauthorized border crossings are illegal,” according to a campaign statement yesterday. And her pledge last night to sign a legislation that would upend U.S. asylum law and make it much easier to deport undocumented immigrants without addressing the status of those already in the country was a major applause line.

The political imperatives for the shift are clear enough: “We need to neutralize the [immigration] issue, so we can give clarity to voters on abortion, on economic conversation and the risks Trump presents,” as Arizona-based Democratic pollster JOSH ULIBARRI put it.

We also spoke late last night to Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) — who, no, would not discuss his brush with the VP nomination but echoed the message Harris is trying to drive over the next 87 days: She is more serious about handling the border than Trump is.

“The craziest thing I’ve ever seen since I’ve been in office for three-and-a-half years is what happened when Donald Trump told them that they had to walk away from [the border bill],” he said. “And the shocking thing to me was they didn’t walk away from it. They ran.”

But two big questions remain about this border pivot: The first is how the advocates and activists who have historically been central to the development of Democratic immigration policy over the past decade will react. We’ll note that Harris last night paid heed to “comprehensive immigration reform that includes … an earned pathway to citizenship.”

One immigration advocate close to the White House told us that is what they were hoping to hear: “If she doesn’t always talk about a pathway to citizenship, and she doesn’t lay the contrast, then I think there’ll be increasing concern.” Otherwise, this person suggested, the blowback would be minimal.

The other question is tied up with Harris’ other recent moves to the center: How does she explain how she went from suggesting migrants shouldn’t be arrested, let alone deported, in 2019 to backing a serious legislative crackdown on migrant rights today?

A Harris campaign adviser said yesterday that shift and others “have been shaped by three years of effective governance as part of the Biden-Harris Administration.” But with Trump and Republicans eager to portray her as a radical liberal flip-flopper, we await hearing her explain that evolution in her own words.

Related read: “‘Smash the Gangs’: What Harris Can Learn From Keir Starmer,” by Alexander Burns: “An inconspicuous policy paper helped Britain’s Labour Party overcome its vulnerability on immigration. It can do the same for the Democrats.”

Good Saturday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

BUT, BUT, BUT — Despite Harris’ success so far, the transition from one campaign to another hasn’t been all smooth sailing. Chris Cadelago reports this morning on internal tensions between Harris loyalists and Biden hands as the new structure shakes out quickly: JEN O’MALLEY DILLON told Harris she needed reassurance that she was still in charge, not DAVID PLOUFFE, while JULIE CHAVEZ RODRIGUEZ’s role shifted in what some saw as a demotion. Some people in Harris’ circle weren’t happy with ROB FLAHERTY, especially his initial cut of her “Freedom” launch video, or TJ DUCKLO, whom one aide saw talking bad about Harris. The campaign denies many of these tensions and says they’ve executed the huge shift smoothly.

WaPo’s Tyler Pager, meanwhile, peeks inside Harris’ inner circle, which consists of “LORRAINE VOLES and SHEILA NIX, her chiefs of staff at the White House and campaign respectively. Also included are KAREN DUNN, who helped Harris prepare for her 2020 debate, and ROHINI KOSOGLU, a longtime policy adviser.” And Pager also unearths this tidbit ahead of the now-scheduled Sept. 10 ABC debate: “PHILIPPE REINES, a longtime aide to HILLARY CLINTON, has been lined up to play the part of Trump in debate practice.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden has nothing on his public schedule.

On the trail

Harris will travel from Phoenix to Las Vegas, where she’ll have her latest campaign rally at 8:20 p.m. Eastern. She’ll then head to San Francisco for the night.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Bozeman, Mont., Friday, Aug. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

Donald Trump is trying to hone his attacks on VP Kamala Harris, but frequently getting sidetracked. | Rick Bowmer/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN: In its single biggest round of TV ad reservations yet, the Trump campaign yesterday plunked down a whopping $23.8 million in Georgia and $13 million more across the other six main swing states. At his rally yesterday in Bozeman, Montana, Trump worked on honing his attacks against Harris, playing new videos that portrayed Harris as too liberal and poorly spoken, NYT’s Michael Gold and Simon Levien report. He also trotted out a range of criticisms of Walz, mainly aimed at portraying him as far left and “freakish,” per Lisa Kashinsky.

But the rally also featured plenty of the digressions and offensive insults that constantly blow Trump’s messaging off course: Trump claimed that nobody knows Harris’ last name and fat-shamed Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), while Montana GOP Chair DON ‘K’ KALTSCHMIDT said Walz “has some ‘Black Hawk Down’ problems” in Minneapolis, referring to the city’s Somali American community.

More fundamentally, the Trump campaign is struggling, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan report in a big swing this morning. His allies see this as “easily the worst” stretch for him since late 2022, as he can’t focus his Harris attacks away from his controversial instincts or present a positive vision for the country. He’s repeatedly called Harris a “bitch.” “He has found the change disorienting, those who interact with him say. … The people around Mr. Trump see a candidate knocked off his bearings.” There’s also a striking anecdote about Trump having NATALIE HARP send angry texts to MIRIAM ADELSON, at IKE PERLMUTTER’s encouragement, which has made some worry about Adelson pulling her financial support.

2. BIG INVESTIGATION: “Tim Sheehy may turn the Senate red. But is he really a successful businessman?” by NBC’s Gretchen Morgenson, Laura Strickler and Courtney Kube: “[TIM SHEEHY] points to his job creation and entrepreneurial skills as among his qualifications for the Senate. Recent events at his company tell a more nuanced story and raise questions about the firm’s viability, its executive pay and its efforts to obtain government contracts. … [A] May securities filing by the company noted ‘substantial doubt’ about Bridger [Aerospace]’s ability to continue operating as a ‘going concern’ over the next year.”

3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The U.S. is giving the green light to two controversial allies in the Middle East. The State Department said yesterday that even though Israel’s Netzah Yehuda battalion committed serious human rights violations, it can keep getting U.S. money because it has taken steps to change, WaPo’s John Hudson reports. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s decision after a monthslong investigation stunned human rights advocates, who said it “defied past practices” around the Leahy Laws.

Meanwhile on the ground, Israel killed at least 80 Palestinians in a school-turned-shelter that they said was harboring a Hamas command center, per AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy — one of the deadliest strikes of the entire war. And JOHN KIRBY slammed Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s far-right coalition partners, saying yesterday that BETZALEL SMOTRICH would willingly sacrifice the lives of hostages held by Hamas to block a cease-fire deal, per Axios’ Barak Ravid.

The U.S. is also giving the go-ahead for selling offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia after a three-year ban, Reuters’ Humeyra Pamuk, Patricia Zengerle and Steve Holland report. The State Department’s decision could lead to a resumption of sales as soon as next week. The pause was originally intended to cool down the war in Yemen, but Saudi Arabia hasn’t launched airstrikes there in more than two years now.

4. COMING SOON TO A TIKTOK NEAR YOU: “Inside Project 2025’s Secret Training Videos,” by ProPublica’s Andy Kroll and Documented’s Nick Surgey: “The Project 2025 videos coach future appointees on everything from the nuts and bolts of governing to how to outwit bureaucrats. There are strategies for avoiding embarrassing Freedom of Information Act disclosures and ensuring that conservative policies aren’t struck down by ‘left-wing judges.’ Some of the content is routine advice that any incoming political appointee might be told. Other segments of the training offer guidance on radically changing how the federal government works and what it does. … 29 of the 36 speakers have worked for Trump in some capacity.”

5. BREAKING DOWN WALZ: With Republicans attacking Walz over how he has presented his military service, the Harris campaign admitted to ABC’s Jonathan Karl that Walz “misspoke” when he said in 2018 that he carried weapons of war in combat. (Catherine Kim has an interesting interview with BOB SHRUM, who says he wishes JOHN KERRY’s campaign had hit back harder and earlier against CHRIS LaCIVITA’s Swift Boat attacks.)

Other aspects of Walz’s personal history are coming in for both positive and negative scrutiny. NYT’s Alan Blinder and Eli Tan dive into his time as a high school football coach, when he was relentlessly positive and quietly competitive. There’s an extensive look at Walz’s China ties from CNN’s Nectar Gan, Eric Cheung, Isaac Yee and Will Ripley, who find that notwithstanding GOP criticism, Beijing may not love his “long history of criticizing authoritarian Chinese leadership.” And WaPo’s Laura Meckler and Hannah Natanson look at his gubernatorial record on Minnesota schools, where Walz was especially progressive.

 

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6. THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT IN ACTION, PART I: “Climate cash pours into election swing region. Will it help Harris?” by Benjamin Storrow in Turtle Creek, Pennsylvania: “Western Pennsylvania is ground zero for the climate agenda inherited by Vice President Kamala Harris … The region is a focal point of America’s natural gas industry and home to a powerful labor movement and an emerging clean energy sector … The outcome this year stands to determine whether the climate agenda begun under Biden continues to gather steam with Harris, or if Trump … will steer it toward a dead end.”

7. THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT IN ACTION, PART II: As the landmark IRA turns two next week, the White House will announce its first round of price-saving Medicare results from negotiations for 10 prescription drugs, Adam Cancryn and Lauren Gardner reports. The news is expected to be unveiled Thursday. It’s a “milestone for the White House,” with Americans slated to start reaping the benefits in 2026. The savings are expected to be a centerpiece of Biden and Harris’ event in Maryland that day.

8. KNOWING MICHELE MORROW: “GOP nominee to run North Carolina schools advocated pro-Trump military coup in January 6 video,” by CNN’s Em Steck and Andrew Kaczynski: “In a deleted Facebook livestream she filmed from her hotel room, Morrow called for mass arrests of anyone who helped certify the 2020 election. ‘And if the police won’t do it and the Department of Justice won’t do it, then he will have to enact the Insurrection Act,’ said Morrow. ‘In which case the Insurrection Act completely puts the Constitution to the side and says, now the military rules all.’”

9. COMING DOWN: The FDA officially turned down an application to use MDMA in treating post-traumatic stress disorder, declining to embrace what could have been a turning point for psychedelics in the wake of questions about study results, per NPR’s Will Stone. It’s not unexpected after the FDA’s outside advisory board had recommended against approval. The agency said Lykos Therapeutics needs to conduct more research on the drug’s effectiveness and safety. It’s a big disappointment for supporters of the drug’s use in mental health care, but some experts say the FDA remains more broadly open to the burgeoning field.

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies

A political cartoon is pictured.

Jack Ohman - Tribune Content Agency

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Moscow’s Spies Were Stealing US Tech — Until the FBI Started a Sabotage Campaign,” by Zach Dorfman in POLITICO Magazine: “During the early days of Silicon Valley, a tech industry entrepreneur teamed up with the FBI to ship faulty devices to Moscow.”

“The Spiritual Realm of Sydney McLaughlin,” by The Ringer’s Lex Pryor: “The 400-meter hurdles world-record holder is once again on the cusp of Olympic glory. To get there, she had to find transcendence — both on and away from the track.”

“How the NBA got into business with an African dictator,” by ESPN’s Mark Fainaru-Wada in Kigali, Rwanda: “The leagues find a streamlined path to global expansion, but one littered with ongoing human rights abuses — and the risks of appearing to help obscure them.”

“What Happens When Ozempic Takes Over Your Town,” by Bloomberg Businessweek’s Madison Muller, Devin Leonard and Tanaz Meghjani: “America’s weight-loss drug capital isn’t Hollywood or Manhattan. It’s Bowling Green, Kentucky.”

“What if absolutely everything is conscious?” by Vox’s Sigal Samuel: “Scientists spent ages mocking panpsychism. Now, some are warming to the idea that plants, cells, and even atoms are conscious.” 

“Therapy Daddy,” by Vulture’s Lila Shapiro: “Phil Stutz has made a career in Hollywood doing what most psychologists advise against: telling his patients exactly what to do.”

“John Hinckley Jr. and the Madness of American Political Violence,” by Mark O’Connell in the NYT Magazine: “Forty-three years ago, he shot the president in a delusional bid for attention — one in a long line of disturbed young men who have bent the arc of the nation’s history.”

— From the archives: “The Pleasures of Reading,” by Lewis Lapham, the longtime editor of Harper’s who died July 24, in the May 1975 issue.

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Tanya Chutkan OKed another delay in Donald Trump’s election subversion case.

David Dempsey got the second-longest Jan. 6 sentence yet.

Jesse Ventura endorsed Kamala Harris, as did Philonise Floyd.

Joe Rogan clarified that he has not endorsed Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Gavin Newsom’s office is paying a celebrity photographer $200,000 a year.

Tim Walz and Harris have a spice tolerance gap.

IN MEMORIAM — “Former YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki dies at 56,” by WaPo’s Frances Vinall and Victoria Bisset: “Ms. Wojcicki, who helped start Google, was one of the most prominent women in Silicon Valley before stepping down from YouTube. Her husband said she had lung cancer.”

TRANSITIONS — Rushad Thomas is now director of policy and government relations at Faith in Public Life. He previously was legislative affairs director at End Citizens United // Let America Vote. … Mollie Bowman has been named managing director of Living Links, a new organization starting at the USC Shoah Foundation that will engage third-generation descendants of Holocaust survivors. She most recently was chief of staff and director of external affairs for More Perfect, and is a POLITICO alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Axios’ Alex Thompson … CBS’ Nancy CordesAndrew SullivanKevin McAlisterJim BradyJessica WehrmanSarah Bryant BurnsSarah Kyle of Eli Lilly … Joshua Karp Tony Hernandez of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-Nev.) office … Justin Jenkins … Commerce’s Sarah Weinstein … CNN’s Alex Marquardt and Susie XuJohn Dunagan of Highland Advocacy Group … Lissandra Villa de Petrzelka … DOT’s Casey Clemmons … Invariant’s Ben Klein and Noah Marine … ACLU’s Ally HarpootlianJohn McManus of the McManus Group … David Forman … DTE Energy’s Andy CoulourisRobert CoganArnold Punaro … former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) … Clarissa Rojas of the House Dem Caucus … GMBB’s Andrew Zucker … Herald Group’s Lily ReckfordJacob Cohen

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Charlamagne tha God. Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur and Marianna Sotomayor.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly … Brian Moynihan … retired Gen. Frank McKenzie.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: RNC Chair Michael Whatley … Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) … Nigel Farage … Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) … David McCormick.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.).

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) … Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) … Michael Meehan and Whit Ayres … Kevin Williamson. Panel: Julie Mason, Tia Mitchell and Robert Doar.

Univision “Al Punto Con Jorge Ramos”: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) … Juan Barreto … Lydia Cacho … Adriana Ruano Olivia. Panel: Félix De Bedout, Maity Interiano, Paulina Sodi and Eduardo Padilla.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:

In response to a cascade of ethics scandals laying bare a system in which Supreme Court justices wield tremendous power for decades with little accountability, President Biden has called for 18-year term limits and a binding code of ethics. These reforms have bipartisan support among a majority of Americans. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. Doing so would save the Court from itself, helping to drain the toxicity from the confirmation process and restore balance to the bench. These are conservative ideas, resting on a foundational premise of accountability: nobody should hold too much public power for too long. The result would be a Court that better reflects American values. To learn more about the constitutionality of term limits, visit the Brennan Center’s term limits resources.

 
 

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