On Friday, the threat of domestic upheaval was still mostly an academic exercise. By Sunday morning — in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump onstage at a rally in Pennsylvania — the editorial pages of The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal were urging moderation as U.S. political leaders confronted fears of a sustained period of political violence in the run-up to the 2024 election. Wall Street executives have warned for years about how geopolitical conflicts threaten the global economy. Political polarization in the U.S. is often cited among those risks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon as recently as Friday wrote in a second-quarter earnings release that the “geopolitical situation remains complex and potentially the most dangerous since World War II.” But those warnings rarely get specific about how dangerous the divisions within the U.S. have become and how hard it will be to mend those fractures. There are exceptions, of course. Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, published an article in Time last month where he posited that the possibility of a U.S. civil war now stands at “uncomfortably more than 50 percent.” “A clash between state governments and a fractured central government appears likely, which I would regard as a type of civil war even if not violent,” he wrote. “If things get bad enough, some Americans will flee to other countries and foreigners will choose not to be here. Such disorder would also not be good for rule-of-law and our capital markets.” Even if that forecast seems far-fetched — Dalio has made plenty of predictions about downturns and conflicts that never came to pass — Trump’s shooting does not diminish its likelihood. It’s a possible tail risk if there’s more violence in the coming weeks or months. (Dimon over the weekend sent a message to his bank’s employees urging them to stand against “any acts of hate, intimidation or violence that seek to undermine our democracy or inflict harm.”) Trump urged the country to “stand united” in the aftermath of the attack. President Joe Biden said that “we must not go down this road” from the Oval Office on Sunday night. House Speaker Mike Johnson told NBC that “we’ve got to turn the temperature down in this country.” Those comments reflect the stakes. “This is a moment where I think we have to recognize that we can’t have rhetoric that encourages political violence,” David McCormick, the Republican Senate candidate from Pennsylvania who previously worked for Dalio at Bridgewater Associates, said on Fox News on Sunday. Between the Trump assassination attempt, the attack on former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and the threats made against Supreme Court justices, “it’s hard to imagine that this polarized violent rhetoric isn’t contributing to the violence we’re seeing,” he said. “We’re going to have a conflict of ideas. But that doesn't have to lead to conflict that becomes violent,” McCormick said. “We can disagree mightily on ideas and still be able to find a way to come together as Americans.” IT’S MONDAY — I hope you’re staying safe. As always, send tips and suggestions to ssutton@politico.com and @samjsutton. If you’re in Milwaukee, say hey to Victoria Guida (vguida@politico.com) and Zach Warmbrodt (zwarmbrodt@politico.com). And if you can’t make it, be sure to catch their POLITICO Grill panels online.
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