News: Joe Biden vs. the non-believers

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Joe Biden vs. the non-believers

Jul 20, 2024

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By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by ExxonMobil

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

DEEP IN THE HEART — Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE (D-Texas), who represented Houston in Congress for nearly three decades, died yesterday at age 74. In recent months, she announced that she’d been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. More from the Houston Chronicle

President Joe Biden speaks at an event.

The crisis currently engulfing Joe Biden's candidacy is due to his inability to spread faith in his ability to defeat Donald Trump in November. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

A LEAP OF FAITH — On Nov. 7, 2020, after JOE BIDEN was declared the victor of the presidential election, he took the stage in Wilmington, Delaware, to give a speech that ended with an anecdote from his childhood.

“As my grandpa said when I walked out of his home when I was a kid up in Scranton, he said: ‘Joey, keep the faith,’” Biden said. “And our grandmother, when she was alive, she yelled: ‘No, Joey, spread it.’”

The crisis currently engulfing his candidacy is due to his inability to do just that: spread faith in his ability to defeat DONALD TRUMP in November.

It is, in some ways, the central divide in the Democratic Party at this moment: Those who believe Biden can win, and those who, based on what they’ve seen, have become non-believers.

The ranks of the non-believers continue to swell. Over the last 24 hours or so, at least 10 Hill Democrats have publicly called on Biden to step aside as the party’s nominee. They include Sens. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) and MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) — both of whom are in tight battles for reelection — as well as Reps. BETTY McCOLLUM (D-Minn.), ZOE LOFGREN (D-Calif.) and GABE VASQUEZ (D-N.M.), among others. Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) even wrote an op-ed for the Boston Globe in which he recounted that Biden “didn’t seem to recognize me” at a recent D-Day commemoration, implying that cognitive decline was the likely culprit. Hill aides tell us not to expect the “Pass the Torch” movement to stop any time soon.

And yet Biden sees in this not his own inability to convert or convince, but instead, “an orchestrated campaign to drive him out of the race” that is being led by “some of those he once considered close,” NYT’s Peter Baker, Michael Shear and Katie Rogers report. “He considers Representative NANCY PELOSI, the former House speaker, the main instigator, but is irritated at [former President BARACK] OBAMA as well, seeing him as a puppet master behind the scenes.”

There’s more than a whiff of paranoia to that assessment.

Since his calamitous performance in last month’s debate, Biden has done about 10 interviews, joined at least a dozen calls and meetings with nervous Dems, delivered at least a half-dozen speeches, attended nearly a dozen rallies and events and held an almost hour-long press conference on intricate foreign policy issues. He’s written a letter to Hill Democrats to get them on board. His team gave a presentation to Senate Democrats. Senior Biden aides have called members of the party all over the country — including delegates to the coming national convention — to soothe their nerves. He’s tried ignoring soldiering on. He’s tried being defiant and angry. He’s tried being humble.

None of it has stemmed the tide.

Rather than introspection about why that may be, Biden has taken to “privately railing about Mr. Obama and even aides to former President BILL CLINTON,” the Times reports, unfavorably comparing their handling of midterm elections to his own (which seems like an awfully thin reed to us).

An important caveat: There’s a difference between Clinton’s aides and Clinton himself. Three sources tell Playbook that not only is former President Clinton pushing donors to keep giving to the campaign, but that former Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON is doing the same behind closed doors. Those sources also tell us that both Clintons are “deferential to Biden’s decision.”

They are not alone in that stance. Vice President KAMALA HARRIS went on a donor call yesterday to guarantee a victory with Biden at the top of the ticket. Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) did an hourlong Instagram Live video during which she outlined why he needs to stay. Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) says he should stick in the race. And nearly every member of the Congressional Black Caucus, Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Congressional Progressive Caucus remain aligned behind him.

A Biden believer would note here that only 32 Hill Democrats have publicly said he needs to get out of the race. Everyone else has remained either silent or deferential to Biden’s choice. They'd also point to Biden and team’s own vociferous denials that anything has changed about his decision.

But the problem for Biden is that he has made a decision (to stay in the race), and a number of Democrats — privately and publicly — believe it is the wrong decision, hence their public calls for him to relinquish the nomination.

Privately, people close to Biden “have said that he is increasingly accepting that he may not be able to” continue his campaign, per the Times, “and some have begun discussing dates and venues for a possible announcement that he is stepping aside.”

But there’s also quite a bit of evidence to suggest that Biden is trying to run out the clock.

The Covid diagnosis bought him a few days away from the high-wire act of public events. He has a meeting with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU on Wednesday, and it’d be difficult to see him drop before that. First Lady JILL BIDEN leaves on Wednesday for the Paris Olympics and it’s hard to imagine the president making any sort of torch-passing announcement without her by his side.

And then there’s the whole “early roll call” issue. The DNC Rules Committee met yesterday morning and decided to forge ahead with plans for a virtual roll call to officially nominate the party’s candidate in advance of the actual convention. Our own Elena Schneider writes that the committee announced that they would meet no later than six days from now to vote on the rules, and that “virtual voting by convention delegates is scheduled to start no earlier than Aug. 1.”

That could change if Biden drops. In that scenario, “it would be hard for [an early virtual roll call] to move forward,” one rules committee member told Elena. “For all intents and purposes, it’d need to go to an open convention.”

There’s a long way to go between here and there. But with Congress coming back into town this week, it’s likely that there’ll be a major push to resolve this all sooner rather than later. Very little about this situation is certain — including whether a new nominee would outperform the incumbent president. It’s a dark moment for Democrats. But to borrow another favorite Biden quote: Faith sees best in the dark.

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden has nothing on his public schedule as he continues to recuperate from Covid.

Harris will travel to Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts to participate in a political event and will return to Washington this evening.

On the trail

Trump will hold his first rally since last week’s assassination attempt, making his campaign trail debut with running mate JD VANCE today in Grand Rapids, Mich.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

Supporters and law enforcement take cover after shots were fired at a Donald Trump campaign rally

Supporters and law enforcement take cover after shots were fired at a campaign rally for former President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024. | Scott Goldsmith for POLITICO

1. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: “Trump Gunman Flew Drone Over Rally Site Hours Before Attempted Assassination,” by WSJ’s Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha: “THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS flew the drone on a programmed flight path earlier in the day on July 13 to scour the Butler Farm Show grounds ahead of Trump’s ill-fated rally, the officials said. The predetermined path, the officials added, suggests Crooks flew the drone more than once as he researched and scoped out the event site.”

Related read: “House GOP chair subpoenas Trump rally security records,” by Jordain Carney: “House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) on Friday demanded various records, including security plans for the rally site, Secret Service protocol on the day of the rally and documents and communications about coordination for screening rally attendees. Green also wants any records related to increasing Trump’s security detail since Nov. 15, 2022.”

2. WAY TOO EARLY: You could be forgiven if, given the avalanche of news over the last week, the 2028 presidential election was far from your mind. But there was at least one group of people very much focused on that topic this week: the GOP would-be candidates in Milwaukee, who used the national convention to ingratiate themselves to Republican voters, as WaPo’s Marianne LeVine, Meryl Kornfield and Hannah Knowles report.

Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN joined a breakfast with the South Carolina delegation and “addressed a breakfast hosted by an influential evangelical group.” Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS wooed Iowa Republicans during a lunchtime meeting on the “patio of an elegant Italian villa overlooking Lake Michigan.” And Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) is “now the front-runner to be the president after Donald Trump,” according to Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.), who said that Trump “picked the candidate four years from now.”

Not everyone agrees with Banks’ assessment. Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) said that “the 2028 Republican nomination is not secure.” And Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) declared that there’s “no heir apparent” to Trump.

3. UKRAINE LATEST: Just one week after VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY addressed the NATO summit amid heightened concerns over foreign aid in a second Trump administration, the Ukrainian president and Trump had a seemingly positive conversation last night for the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “The conversation came just a few days shy of the five-year anniversary of the phone call between the two leaders that led to Trump’s first impeachment,” Miles Herszenhorn and Paul McLeary write. “Friday’s call was more traditionally diplomatic, with Zelenskyy congratulating Trump on officially becoming the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.”

How they characterized it …

Trump described the conversation as a “very good phone call” in a Truth Social post, writing that as president, he would “end the war that has cost so many lives,” and “[b]oth sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity,”

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X that he wished Trump “strength and absolute safety” following Saturday’s assassination attempt, adding he “agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.”

4. MEET THE VANCES, PART 1: Over his brief time on Capitol Hill, Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) has earned a reputation for crusading on hot-button social issues — most notably by holding up dozens of State Department nominations over “his view that cultural elitism has infected America’s diplomatic corps and needs to be rooted out through extraordinary vetting efforts,” as WaPo’s John Hudson reports. A newly leaked memo details the junior Ohio senator’s exact questionnaire, offering a glimpse at his efforts to interrogate nominees over their beliefs on diversity and inclusion initiatives and rights for LGBTQ+ people.

“For many conservatives, Vance’s oversight was a welcome response to long-standing concerns within the GOP that the United States has elevated left-leaning social values at the expense of American interests … For career diplomats, the questionnaire forced a tricky dance as they tried to assuage the senator without contradicting President Biden’s assertion that LGBTQ rights were ‘human rights.’”

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5. MEET THE VANCES, PART 2: “Indian Americans Become a Political Force, Just as Usha Vance’s Profile Rises,” by NYT’s Amy Qin and Jonathan Wolfe: “[A]t the current moment, a woman of Indian descent will either serve another term in the White House or be the second lady … Until recently, it was rare to see prominent Indian Americans in the Republican Party who were not Christian … But in an interview last month with Fox and Friends, Mrs. [USHA] VANCE spoke openly about the importance of her Hindu faith in her upbringing. … Mrs. Vance’s elevated role could also help win over some Indian American voters and donors.”

6. JUDGE NOT: “Trump is poised to bypass his legal woes thanks to judges he appointed,” by Kyle Cheney: “Donald Trump is on the cusp of emerging unscathed from his four criminal prosecutions — thanks almost entirely to the decisions of four judges he appointed.

“Trump’s three Supreme Court picks formed a decisive bloc to declare presidents immune from prosecution for official conduct — freezing the charges he faces in multiple jurisdictions for trying to subvert the 2020 election and putting his New York conviction in doubt. Then his nominee to the federal court in Florida, Judge AILEEN CANNON, handed him another victory by dismissing the charges he faces for hoarding classified documents and concealing them from investigators. … Trump rose to power in an era when conservatives — who had been burned in the past by judicial picks that later broke ranks — had begun perfecting a strategy of appointing judges who would more reliably rule in their favor.”

7. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: As the stops and starts continue with Israel-Hamas cease-fire negotiations, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said yesterday at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that a deal was once again within sight, Reuters’ Daphne Psaledakis and Phil Stewart report.

“I believe we're inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line in getting an agreement that would produce a ceasefire, get the hostages home and put us on a better track to trying to build lasting peace and stability," Blinken said. “There remains some issues that need to be resolved, that need to be negotiated. We’re in the midst of doing exactly that.”

Going nuclear … Blinken also discussed Iran’s growing nuclear capacity, telling forum attendees that Tehran’s timeline to produce enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon is now down to “probably one to two weeks,” CNN’s Jennifer Hansler and Kylie Atwood report: “The assessment marks the shortest breakout time that US officials have ever referenced and comes as Iran has taken steps in recent months to boost its production of fissile material.”

8. IMMIGRATION FILES: In an interview with NBC News’ Julia Ainsley and Laura Strickler, acting ICE Director P.J. LECHLEITNER says some large Democratic areas are quietly reconsidering their sanctuary policies and increasing cooperation with federal officials over growing public safety fears. “In reliably blue Baltimore and Montgomery County, Maryland, as well as other progressive jurisdictions around the U.S. — many of which want ICE to keep their cooperation confidential — public safety officials are increasingly concerned about migrants with serious criminal records who could reoffend.”

The 30,000-foot view: “Bus by Bus, Texas’ Governor Changed Migration Across the U.S.,” by NYT’s J. David Goodman, Keith Collins, Edgar Sandoval and Jeremy White

9. FROM THE GOLDEN STATE: “California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House races,” by Christopher Cadelago: “JODI HICKS, [Planned Parenthood’s] statewide president and a delegate to the Democratic National Convention, pointed to polling she’s reviewed to express concern about the president’s underperformance in battlegrounds that are critical for Democrats’ efforts to retake the House. … ‘The voters we know who trust Planned Parenthood on elections are the same voters who, based on the recent polling, would turn out in favor of a different Democratic nominee, including Vice President Harris,’ Hicks said.”

A message from ExxonMobil:

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies

Cartoon for 7/20

Michael DeAdder - caglecartoons.com

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “A Trip Into Tornado Alley With America’s Most Obsessive Storm Chaser,” by NYT’s Natalie Ivis and David Gelles: “[Reed] Timmer, 44, is the nation’s most famous storm chaser. With millions of followers on social media, he livestreams his relentless pursuit of violent weather, gleefully careering into the path of deadly storms.”

— “Ethan Crumbley killed four classmates with a gun. His parents were convicted,” by Matthew Bremner for FT Mag: “For the first time in American history, the parents of a school shooter have been found guilty of complicity in their child’s crimes. Is that really a step forward?”

— “The Demon Slayers,” by Harper’s Mag’s Sam Kestenbaum: “The new age of American exorcisms.”

— “How Rivian Became the Anti-Tesla,” by Businessweek’s Edward Ludlow and Max Chafkin: “The startup persuaded Elon-phobic car buyers to drop $70,000 on its EVs. Now it just needs to make money.”

— “The Last Days of Joan Didion,” by Helen Rumbelow for Air Mail: “Cory Leadbeater looked after the author in her final days—and after them, too.”

— “Jiaai Zeng Died Weeks After Starting Work at an Oklahoma Marijuana Farm. His Family Wants Answers,” by ProPublica’s Sebastian Rotella and Kirsten Berg and The Frontier’s Garrett Yalch and Clifton Adcock: “Thousands of Chinese immigrant laborers suffer abuse and exploitation in a U.S. marijuana underworld dominated by Chinese mafias.”

— “We Volunteered at a Gaza Hospital. What We Saw Was Unspeakable,” by Mark Perlmutter and Feroze Sidhwa: “American surgeons who witnessed the civilian carnage of the Israel-Hamas war.”

— “‘A diagnosis can sweep away guilt’: the delicate art of treating ADHD,” by Jack Goulder for The Guardian: “For children with ADHD, getting the help they need depends on being correctly diagnosed. As a doctor, I have seen how tricky and frustrating a process that can be.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Pete Buttigieg went after JD Vance in an interview with Bill Maher.

David Letterman is headlining a fundraiser for Joe Biden.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) … Tom Friedman … Franklin Foer … CNN’s David Chalian … Katrina Pierson … WaPo’s David Lynch … Anita Decker Breckenridge … POLITICO’s Maya Melkote and Kevon Eaglin … DOD’s Patrick Kelly … King & Spalding’s Justin Dews … Jamal Simmons … Hunter McKay of KRC Research … former Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) … Meta’s Don Seymour … Leah Grace Blackwell … Paula Cino … Sydney Poindexter … Ashley Morgan … Cornerstone’s Max de Vreeze … Tristan Breaux of Tyson Foods … Liam Fagan of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) office … former FCC Chair Dick Wiley (9-0) … Sharon Copeland of the Herald Group … NBC News PR’s Joya Manasseh … Aloise Phelps

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC “This Week”: House Speaker Mike Johnson. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Rachael Bade and Terry Moran.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).

CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) … House Speaker Mike Johnson … Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) … Lindy Li … Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) Panel: Francesca Chambers, Horace Cooper, Marie Harf and Marc Thiessen.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Eric Trump … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) .. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin … Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) … Newt Gingrich.

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.). Panel: George Will, Michael Warren, Sabrina Siddiqui and David Swerdlick.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

A message from ExxonMobil:

Today, heavy industry, power generation and commercial transportation account for nearly 80% of energy-related CO₂ emissions. For these businesses, setting and achieving meaningful carbon-reduction goals can be complex. At ExxonMobil, we’ve been working on reducing our own carbon emissions. At our Baytown plant, one of the world’s largest integrated refining and petrochemical operations, we’re planning to deploy hydrogen power and carbon capture to reduce the site’s emissions by up to 30%. Now, we’re taking solutions like these to others in heavy industry. Using our technologies, we can help businesses create a plan to make similar reductions. And together, we can deliver a lower-emissions future. Let’s deliver.