Friday, July 19, 2024

Democrats play with fire

Presented by ExxonMobil: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
Jul 19, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

Presented by ExxonMobil

THE CATCH-UP

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) takes part in a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on Capitol Hill Dec. 1, 2022. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) today became the third Democratic senator to call for President Joe Biden to drop out. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

‘PASS THE TORCH’ — A week out from the Olympics opening ceremony, a growing number of Democrats are trying to force President JOE BIDEN into their own complicated relay, and “pass the torch” is the catchphrase du jour.

Six of the eight congressional Dems who called for Biden to drop out of the presidential race today used the phrase, urging Biden to make way for a new generation of Dems and spare the country from a DONALD TRUMP victory. Rep. SEAN CASTEN (D-Ill.) broke ranks with a Chicago Tribune op-ed. Sen. MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.), whose reelection race could get competitive if Democrats collapse, became the third senator to go there in a new statement. And a joint statement came from Reps. JARED HUFFMAN (D-Colo.), MARC VEASEY (D-Texas), CHUY GARCIA (D-Ill.) and MARK POCAN (D-Wis.) — who, notably, represent the progressive, Black and Hispanic caucuses, where Biden’s support has been stronger.

Reps. GREG LANDSMAN (D-Ohio), a frontline Dem, and ZOE LOFGREN (D-Calif.), a close ally of Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), also called for Biden to go.

Pass the Torch is also the name of a new group agitating for Biden to drop out, which will try to reach him directly with ads on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” starting Monday, NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald reports. It’ll feature Pennsylvania Dem voters asking him to save democracy by stepping aside, and will air in the D.C. and Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, markets.

Perhaps the most concrete sign of concern for Biden is a new report from NBC’s Carol Lee, Monica Alba, Sarah Fitzpatrick, Jonathan Allen and Natasha Korecki that his family members have started talking about what his departure could look like — if he makes that decision. Their focus is on having a clear plan to set up Democrats for success and honor Biden’s long career.

But publicly, the campaign is not backing down.

  • On “Morning Joe” today, campaign chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON emphasized that Biden is not leaving and will get back on the trail next week. She argued that he has multiple paths to winning in November, while acknowledging that “we have a lot of work to do to reassure the American people.” 
  • ANDREW BATES outright denied the NBC report about Biden’s family members. 

What to make of the conflicting signals? Inside Biden’s closest circles, the plans and hopes seem to change “minute to minute,” Adam Cancryn, Jonathan Lemire and Eli Stokols report from Rehoboth. Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) notably tells them that he won’t change his mind unless Biden does. CNN’s Isaac Dovere describes a campaign and a party trapped in a “doom loop,” in which movement in either direction seems damaging and the political landscape looks “dark and confused.” In other words: Democrats have yet to prove that they can pass or hold the torch without getting burned.

Interesting nugget: The Atlantic’s Ali Breland scoops that the Biden campaign joined Truth Social in part to amplify the Trump-NIKKI HALEY divide and steer him toward a more hard-right VP pick, which they seem to have landed with Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — As the Biden campaign’s fundraising reportedly dries up, JILL BIDEN is headlining an Olympics-themed Biden Victory Fund fundraiser Thursday in Paris, according to an invitation sent out this morning that Daniel Lippman obtained. Amounts include $500 to be a guest, $1,000 to be a “qualifier,” $3,300 to be a “torchbearer,” $6,600 for a “bronze,” $10,000 to write/raise for a “silver” and $25,000 to write/raise for a “gold.” The first lady is leading the U.S. delegation to the Olympics, and the event is the campaign’s first fundraiser in Europe.

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — The WSJ reporter was convicted and sentenced to 16 years in a penal colony in Russia today on baseless spying charges in what was widely considered a sham trial, WSJ’s Georgi Kantchev reports. Gershkovich did not admit guilt, and Russia has not publicized any evidence against him. Having been detained for over a year now, Gershkovich’s best chance at release is likely a prisoner swap between the two countries, in which Russia has signaled some interest. Dow Jones, the White House and many others condemned the verdict and sentencing today.

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox speaks during Utah's gubernatorial GOP primary debate on Tuesday, June 11, 2024, in Salt Lake City. (Isaac Hale/The Deseret News via AP, Pool)

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox reversed course and endorsed Donald Trump today. | Isaac Hale/The Deseret News via AP Photo, Pool

1. TRUMP’S BIG WEEK: In the wake of the Republican National Convention and the assassination attempt against Trump, Utah Gov. SPENCER COX endorsed the former president today, the Deseret News’ Samuel Benson scooped — a vote of confidence from a not-so-MAGA Republican leader who just a week ago told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins he wouldn’t vote for Trump. And though MARK ZUCKERBERG told Bloomberg’s Emily Chang that he’s not endorsing in the race, he called Trump’s raised fist after being shot “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”

The new party: “Trump’s overhaul of GOP shows his sway but leaves some on sidelines,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Isaac Arnsdorf and Laura Vozzella

But for some of the most important viewers — undecided voters — Trump’s rambling speech last night left them cold and still despairing over their choices in November, NYT’s Julie Bosman, Jack Healy, Eduardo Medina, Campbell Robertson and David Goodman report from a group of swing voters they’re tracking. “Some found the speech off-putting. A few found bright spots. None were swayed.” And they’re not happy about Biden either. And for all the rhetoric about the GOP shifting to a unity message, the Guardian’s Sam Levine reports that election denialism and conspiracy theories still ran rampant at the convention.

As law enforcement continues to investigate shooter THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS, CNN’s Zachary Cohen, Evan Perez and Holmes Lybrand report new details about his online activity before the incident: The FBI and Secret Service told lawmakers that Crooks had searched for information about ETHAN CRUMBLEY, a Michigan school shooter, and his parents. And though there are still few clues about his motives, authorities are looking into the theory that Crooks just wanted to commit a mass atrocity and alighted on the Trump rally. Meanwhile, Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) raised new questions, based on whistleblower claims, about whether DHS assigned the right security to the event.

Secret Service Director KIMBERLY CHEATLE will testify before House Oversight on Monday, the agency said.

2. REALITY CHECK: “Mike Johnson Tempers Expectations About What a New GOP Majority Can Actually Achieve,” by NOTUS’ Reese Gorman: “‘I don’t know that repeal and replace is on the agenda,’ [Speaker MIKE] JOHNSON told NOTUS when asked about Obamacare. … Johnson didn’t have a clear answer on how Congress could approve substantial funding for a wall or help Trump deport millions of immigrants who entered the country illegally. … Asked if he’d need to see spending cuts paired with [new] tax cuts — which didn’t happen last time — Johnson suggested he would.”

3. TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: With Trump — and the prospect of weakened U.S. support for Ukraine — rising, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN now is getting closer to being proven right that he could outlast the West in the war in Ukraine, NYT’s Anton Troianovski reports. “All told, the arc of American foreign policy could be moving closer to Mr. Putin’s expectations of it,” and the Russian media is intently focused on Trump’s gains in the election.

But Ukraine’s troubles also go much deeper: Reuters’ Stephen Grey, John Shiffman and Allison Martell have a special report from Kramatorsk on how the U.S. and NATO failed since 2014 to bolster their supplies of artillery shells, leaving Kyiv shorthanded when Russia invaded. “A decade of strategic, funding and production mistakes played a far greater role in the shell shortage than did the recent U.S. congressional delays of aid, Reuters found.”

The U.S. is also working on responses to Russia that range far beyond Ukraine. WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Lara Seligman scooped that U.S. intelligence is warning Russia might give anti-ship missiles to the Houthis — and the Biden administration has been working through diplomatic channels to try to stop Moscow from doing so. Bloomberg’s Anthony Capaccio reports that the Space Force is also launching new ground jammers that could mess with Russian or Chinese satellites in the future.

 

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN MILWAUKEE!

Watch the full event from the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the RNC HERE.

The program featured Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications, as well as a conversation with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill for discussions about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election.

 
 

4. SWING-VOTER DISPATCH: “This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don’t trust either party to fix it,” by FiveThirtyEight’s Monica Potts: “The Jacksonville community has experienced steep increases in housing prices and cost of living over the past five years, and many voters say they aren't hearing a compelling message on these issues from either side. The Jacksonville voters we spoke to feel that politics has become as much about culture wars as it has about issues like economic policy.”

5. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: “Inside the Risky U.S. Probe of Allegations That Drug Mafias Financed a Campaign of Mexico’s President López Obrador,” by ProPublica’s Tim Golden: “[T]he Drug Enforcement Administration knowingly risked a political furor to try to penetrate [ANDRÉS MANUEL] LÓPEZ OBRADOR’s campaign organization [in 2010] before Mexicans could elect a government that might be beholden to the traffickers. … The inquiry was shut down by senior Justice Department officials in late 2011 … That decision effectively ended U.S. law enforcement scrutiny of the matter.”

6. THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE: Abortion-rights ballot initiatives, advocacy groups and abortion clinics themselves are getting financial boosts from a new wave of wealthy donors, especially younger ones, WSJ’s Juliet Chung and Laura Kusisto reports. That includes PHOEBE GATES, KARLIE KLOSS, WENDY SCHMIDT and CONNIE BALLMER, who have each steered millions of dollars to the cause.

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Allen Weisselberg was released from jail.

Corey Comperatore’s visitation is drawing big crowds today.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Trade hotel in Milwaukee last night after Trump’s acceptance speech: Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle, Eric and RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump, RNC Chair Michael Whatley, Roger Stone, Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Andy Surabian, Ted Goodman, Rod Blagojevich, Asawin Suebsaeng, Justin Sayfie, Nigel Farage, Jon Adams, Ryan Coyne and Steve Hilton.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers hosted its Equipped to Party yesterday at the historic St. James, honoring the Indiana, Idaho and Wisconsin delegations at the RNC. Darryl Worley played to a crowd of hundreds of guests. SPOTTED: Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Michael Rulli (R-Ohio), Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), John James (R-Mich.), Michael Guest (R-Miss.), Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Iowa Lt. Gov. Adam Gregg and Alex Russ.

— SPOTTED at an RNC recovery brunch hosted by Ferox Strategies yesterday morning in Milwaukee: Reps. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), August Pfluger (R-Texas), Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), Mike Ezell (R-Miss.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Mark Williams, Michael Taggart, A.J. Ilardi, John Byers, Al David Saab, Ben Cantrell, Ben Elleson, Fred Sottnick, Jeff Kimbell, Claire Burghoff, Kristan Nevins, Travis Gibbons and Diego Zambrano.

— SPOTTED this week at an after-hours RNC cigar lounge in the Fiserv Forum hosted by Invariant, FanDuel, Draft Kings, Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey and Swishers: Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) and David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Stanton Dodge, Cory Gardner, Chris LaCivita, Steven Mnuchin, Devin Nunes, Reince Priebus and Amy Swonger.

— SPOTTED at Tabard Inn for a surprise party last night hosted by Chris Sheeron to celebrate the 40th birthday of his wife Kate Ballou: Addison Smith, Dan Sachs, Will and Charlotte Suk, Alan Sakar, Oli and Lisa Wolf, Skye Perryman, Peter and Mollie Benton-Sullivan, Nick Scinta and Amanda Toles, Seth Levey, Ruben Olmos, Torrey Shearer, Morgan Gress, Monica Farrow, Karina Keating and Samir Kapadia.

— SPOTTED at Meridian International Center’s annual reception honoring embassy social secretaries and cultural attaches yesterday evening: Carlos Elizondo and Mark Dumas, Catherine Fenton, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Alicia Adams, David Adler, Kimberly Bassett, John Botello, Josh Eastright, Natalie Jones, Shannon Ricchetti, Marcellus Rolle, Aviva Rosenthal, Ellie Warner and Tamara Brunhart.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Christina Carr is joining the Economic Speakers Bureau as its first director. She previously was comms director for the Joint Economic Committee Dems, and is an SBA and Ruben Gallego alum.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Narayan Subramanian is now director for energy transition at the NSC. He previously was an adviser to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm for clean energy projects and supply chains.

TRANSITIONS — Jason Suslavich is joining Applied Intuition Defense as senior director for government affairs. He most recently was director of national security space policy at Blue Origin, and is a Dan Sullivan and Don Young alum. … Alexander Mathews announced that he’ll retire from his role as president and CEO of the Animal Health Institute at the end of the year.

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