| | | | |  | | By Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Displaced Palestinians in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip carry their belongings as they leave following an evacuation order by the Israeli army on May 6, 2024. An estimated 1 million people have been displaced from the Rafah area alone since Israel’s invasion of the southern city in May. | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Miles Herszenhorn and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric As the number of Palestinians displaced in Gaza nears 2 million, aid groups and advocates are trying to call attention to the rising global problem of displacement — and that countries like the U.S. could be doing more. More than 1.5 percent of the world’s population is currently displaced, according to a report from the United Nations Refugee Agency this week. It’s the 12th consecutive year displacement increased worldwide, affecting 117.3 million people by the end of last year. Global responsibility to solve the crises is falling short, UNHCR spokesperson KATHRYN MAHONEY told NatSec Daily, making the assistance from Washington and other wealthy nations crucial to addressing the core issues. “More than ever, we need countries like the United States to continue to provide humanitarian support, to keep attention on forgotten crises like Sudan, and maintain focus on finding solutions,” Mahoney told NatSec Daily, noting that the U.S. provides considerable funding for the U.N. Refugee Agency’s global operations. In 2022, the U.S. gave $2.19 billion to the agency, surpassing any other country’s contribution. Advocates have traditionally tried a few ways to solve the issue: voluntary repatriation, integration into a country where a refugee sought asylum, and resettlement in a third country. But displacement has been a near impossible problem to solve: It’s difficult to find the resources for mass waves of people who are forced to leave their homes, and granting asylum to refugees is often a thorny political issue. Processing refugees takes time, as does guaranteeing them a job and path to citizenship. Wars that lead to displacement aren’t going to stop, and Mahoney struck a pessimistic tone: “The question we should be asking is, ‘Has the international community collectively lost the ability to broker peace?’” she said. Gaza presents a particularly tricky situation. About 1 million people have been forced to flee the Rafah area alone following Israel’s invasion of the southern city in May, according to U.N. estimates. “They can’t leave, and neither can the hostages being held, so all their futures depend on the acceptance of President Biden’s cease-fire proposal,” International Rescue Committee head DAVID MILIBAND told NatSec Daily, referencing the three-phase proposal unveiled by President JOE BIDEN late last month. Solving displacement has been a challenge for President JOE BIDEN in recent years: Aside from Israel-Gaza, the U.S. has been unable to bring Sudan’s civil war to an end, and the Biden administration is still working to resettle Afghan allies after the withdrawal from Kabul in 2021. “But that is not a reason for fatalism or border crackdowns,” Refugees International head JEREMY KONYNDYK told NatSec Daily, as the Biden administration faces its first lawsuit over its restrictive asylum policy at the southern border. “This is a manageable situation if countries choose to manage it.” | | BASHING BEIJING: G7 leaders will warn China over its trade practices and support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to a draft statement seen by our own SUZANNE LYNCH and CLEA CAULCUTT. “We are not trying to harm China,” the leaders say in the latest G7 summit statement, but “we express our concerns about China’s persistent industrial targeting and comprehensive non-market policies and practices.” China has been at the forefront of the G7 leaders' concerns as tensions have increased with the U.S. and trade relations have soured with Europe. The European Commission announced this week that Chinese electric cars shipped to the EU will face duties of up to 38.1 percent starting July 4. The G7 leaders also hardened their tone against Beijing over its support of Russia and called on China to “cease the transfer of dual-use materials, including weapons components and equipment, that are inputs for Russia’s defense sector,” according to the latest draft statement, which is set to be adopted this evening. Read: Rich countries unite against China ... sort of by our own ADAM CANCRYN and DOUG PALMER ISRAELI AID DISRUPTION: The U.S. will impose sanctions on an Israeli group for attacking humanitarian aid convoys that were trying to deliver assistance to starving civilians in Gaza, Reuters’ SIMON LEWIS reports. The sanctions will hit Tsav 9, a group with ties to Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, which has blocked, harassed and damaged aid shipments, U.S. officials told the outlet. Israeli soldiers and police have given far-right settlers tips on which vehicles may be carrying aid into Gaza. Their actions have hindered aid progress in the enclave, where some 2 million Palestinians are at risk of famine. Tzav 9 members have for months “repeatedly sought to thwart the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, including by blocking roads, sometimes violently, along their route from Jordan to Gaza, including transiting the West Bank," State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said in a statement seen by Reuters. QUESTIONING ISRAEL’S DEADLY STRIKE: Israel likely knew displaced people were sheltering in an area where an Israeli strike hit last month, leading to a massive fire and the deaths of dozens of Palestinians in Gaza last month, according to a New York Times investigation. “The Times’s analysis shows that the site targeted was within the borders of the camp, and suggested Israel had failed to take adequate care to safeguard civilians. The camp was well-known, the metal sheds were spaced just over a meter apart, and there were tents in the area,” the Times writes. Israeli officials deny that they knew the compound targeted was in an area where displaced people were. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU called the strike a “tragic accident” following international backlash, but the Times analysis raises questions about Israel’s assessment before the strike that civilian harm would be unlikely. UKRAINE PEACE (RUSSIA’S NEW VERSION): Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN is pushing a hardball proposal for peace that Kyiv says is dead on arrival. According to Reuters’ VLADIMIR SOLDATKIN, Putin said today that Russia will stop the war immediately if Ukraine pulls troops from four of its eastern regions — a proposal that clashes with Kyiv’s firm position that it would not concede land to Russia in exchange for peace. The new Russian position comes on the eve of the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland, to which Moscow was not invited. Ukraine is leaving the door open for peace, while still voicing its distrust that Russia and Putin are working in good faith. Read: The secret arms deal that cost Putin an ally by our own GABRIEL GAVIN DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring PAUL ROSEN, Treasury’s assistant secretary for investment security, aka the guy who runs the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. When Rosen’s finished overseeing hundreds of billions in investment activity — and managing CFIUS’ recommendations to Biden on whether a transaction is a threat to the U.S. or not — he likes to sip on a draft beer while watching a good baseball game. He’s not picky about the type of beer, as long as it’s cold. But don’t expect to see Rosen throwing one back at Nats Stadium too often: He’s a loyal Dodgers fan, and their ballpark is where he’d prefer to be. A draft there “pairs well with a Dodger Dog,” Rosen said. Dinner of champions. Cheers! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | THE PASSION OF THE PONTIFF: POPE FRANCIS took his advocacy on AI on the road, visiting with G7 leaders in Bari and granting his stamp of approval on a new program to recognize companies that agree to safely and ethically develop AI tools. Speaking to the world leaders, the 87-year-old Jesuit warned that “we would condemn humanity to a future without hope if we took away people’s ability to make decisions about themselves and their lives, by dooming them to depend on the choices of machines.” He added “human dignity itself depends on” world leaders crafting clear ethical guardrails around the use of AI technology. AI has become a pastoral priority for the Bishop of Rome and a place of unexpected moral leadership for the Catholic Church in recent years. The Vatican, despite its complicated relationship with science, has tried to work with companies and world governments to rein in excesses in the burgeoning technology. (The Pope was also the subject, or victim, of a viral AI-generated image of him wearing a Balenciaga puffer jacket). ENTER THE CYBER FORCE: The Senate version of the NDAA will include provisions calling on the military to study the creation of a potential separate Cyber Force within the Pentagon, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The language, which was added by amendment to the House version of the defense bill, was also added to the Senate version during this week’s markup of the legislation. Scroll down to On the Hill to read more about the House version of the NDAA.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | ‘NEVER SAY NEVER’: European allies are upping pressure on the U.S. to further loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. Publicly, the Biden administration says it has not changed its policy, which currently restricts the use of U.S.-provided weapons to Ukrainian soil and the immediate region across the border from the besieged city of Kharkiv. But even American officials say nothing is off the table. “If you look back over the course of the conflict, you can find a number of areas where we were reluctant to do something and then we did it,” a senior Defense Department official told Lara. “So never say never.” ISRAEL'S MEDIEVAL WEAPON: If you thought that video of Israeli forces using a catapult to launch fireballs over a wall was a deepfake, you were wrong. Israeli troops used a trebuchet, a catapult that uses a heavy weight, to fling flaming fireballs over a large concrete wall on the northern border with Lebanon, as they fend off Hezbollah militants, The Wall Street Journal’s OMAR ABDEL-BAQUI and ANAT PELED report. An Israeli spokesperson said it was used in an isolated event on a specific target. The device was created by reservists, some who said it was created to burn brush used by militants as cover. The catapult’s creation was not an official Israeli directive, though the fires caused by the projectiles have led to spreading infernos and raised concerns about escalation in the area.
| | | NDAA PASSES HOUSE: The House narrowly cleared defense policy legislation today after Republicans tacked on divisive provisions restricting abortion access, medical treatment for transgender troops and efforts to combat climate change, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s move to permit culture war amendments to the annual National Defense Authorization Act turned a widely bipartisan bill into a measure supported almost entirely by Republicans. The tactic represented a gamble for Johnson, who could have pushed to pass a more bipartisan version with the help of Democrats, but instead catered to a sliver of his right flank. That gamble ultimately paid off for Johnson as enough Republicans united to win the final vote. But the most conservative parts of the House defense bill stand no chance in the Senate, and the dispute likely won’t be sorted out until after the November elections. MITCH’S NEXT MOVE: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL is stepping down from his long-held post in January, but he has no plans to let go of the reins of power — especially when it comes to defense spending. According to Axios’ STEF KIGHT, McConnell is eyeing a return to the Senate Appropriations Committee, where he hopes to chair the powerful congressional panel and exert major influence over defense spending and other policy priorities in his political twilight years. The plan is not without potential hiccups: His ally Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) is poised to helm the powerful committee in the next Congress and McConnell and his allies will likely have to find the influential Maine moderate a consolation prize. But the early interest signals McConnell’s continued interest in safeguarding his foreign policy legacy and his desire to check the influence of his party’s growing isolationist wing.
| | | |   | | | | | GERMANY SINKS RUSSIA SANCTIONS: Germany made an eleventh-hour move to nix a sanctions deal against Russia’s gas sector on the eve of the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland, our colleagues in Europe report. The package would have banned countries from re-exporting Russian liquified natural gas from EU ports and financing planned Arctic and Baltic gas terminals. Berlin, our colleagues write, was worried about broadening a measure that would force EU companies to ensure their customers cannot then sell sanctioned goods on to Moscow. That prohibition currently only applies to firearms, battlefield items and dual-use goods. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — IMPOSTER SYNDROME? A group that sells t-shirts and asks for money to support the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front may not be as tied in with the resistance as it suggests, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in. The group in question — called Vets4NRF — has no official affiliation to the National Resistance Front, a senior NRF member said in a statement, and the anti-Taliban organization is unhappy about the veterans group’s fundraising efforts. “No one except for ROBERT STRYK and his team are authorized to represent and lobby for the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan,” said the senior member, granted anonymity to speak candidly, referencing a U.S. lobbyist who initially made a name for himself on K Street by unapologetically representing unsavory global players. Vets4NRF was started by an Afghan-American U.S. Army veteran nicknamed LEGEND who says he worked for retired Gen. JOE VOTEL and is a member of the resistance. The veteran’s full name could not be confirmed. Vets4NRF disputed the reporting, saying in an email that it “contains inaccuracies, misleading information, and is incomplete. It appears to be an unjustified attack on an American veteran organization that is working to support our abandoned Afghan allies in their resistance against the terrorist groups Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and ISIS.” The group didn’t respond to a follow-up email when asked for specifics of what was inaccurate.
| | | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | — South Africa’s African National Congress party reached a coalition deal with the centrist Democratic Alliance party. The party of NELSON MANDELA suffered a major electoral defeat earlier this month, forcing it to enter coalition talks for the first time since the end of apartheid.
| | — JOSH HERSH, Columbia Journalism Review: How the State Department briefing room became ‘bizarroland’ — MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: Don’t Tell the French — But They’re Americans Now — ISHAAN THAROOR, The Washington Post: The small country in the middle of the world’s crises
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