THE BUZZ: SPILLOVER EFFECT — There's a political calculus behind why Democrats and Republicans are so focused on a California ballot measure to change criminal penalties: it could have bigger impacts down ballot. Gov. Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders are using hardball tactics to pressure retailers and district attorneys to withdraw their November initiative to erase parts of Proposition 47, a decade-old law that reduced penalties for some drug and property crimes. On the surface, it’s largely been a fight about the policy merits of tough-on-crime laws. But political strategists and lawmakers in both parties say it’s also about swaying the outcome of other elections on the ballot. They argue the emotionally-charged nature of the fight could have a dramatic spillover effect that extends from California to Washington — potentially shaping the outcome of a handful of close House races, and therefore control of Congress. Democrats say having the initiative on the ballot is a Republican tactic designed to stoke voters’ fears. It’s a hook to place crime front and center in their campaigns to help win swing voters. “Ultimately, this initiative is not a policy fight: this is a political and power fight,” argued Natasha Minsker, a policy adviser for Smart Justice California, a progressive group fighting the effort to roll back Prop 47. “The Republican Party in California is very explicit that this initiative will help them turn out voters.” Polling repeatedly has shown that concerns over crime could be a crucial issue for Republicans' ability to flip and hold seats in purple House districts where many independent-minded voters see Democrats as weak on enforcement. “I mean, yes, it’s good politics for us,” said Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher. “But it’s also good policy. People see that Prop 47 is flawed.” Republicans, Gallagher included, have hammered Newsom and legislative leaders over their attempt to get the measure off the ballot through a package of anti-theft bills, calling it a “poison pill” that could deprive voters a say. Democratic Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur, a chief architect of the bill package, argued the GOP approach is out of line with voters’ wishes in a deep-blue state. “I don’t think voters are going to want to adopt something that allows prosecutors to charge a teenage girl who steals lipstick with a felony,” he said. Republicans are sensing an opportunity in forcing Democrats in competitive races to choose between the bill package (and legislative hardball) by their party in Sacramento or the initiative. Rep. Kevin Kiley swiftly got the entire California GOP delegation to sign a letter decrying Democrats’ maneuvers as “an unprecedented threat to the entire initiative process.” Among the signatories are vulnerable Republicans like Reps. Michelle Steel, David Valadao and Ken Calvert. So far, Dave Min, a state senator running for a battleground seat in Orange County, is the only Democratic House hopeful to be publicly put on the spot about the initiative, but he declined to commit to a position, saying he’d have to study the ballot measure. That prompted incredulous responses from the NRCC and his opponent, Scott Baugh, who took the opportunity to announce he was endorsing the measure. Min responded, saying he's focused on “real negotiations on the table right now to get public safety reform done through the Legislature.” Democratic strategists following competitive House races say there’s no need for their party’s candidates to weigh in on the initiative now — that it’s too premature to speculate about what may or may not be on the ballot in the fall. In a statement to Playbook, Democratic candidate Derek Tran, who is running for a House seat in Orange County, emphasized his public safety bona fides without directly addressing the initiative. Others cracked the door open to potential support for the initiative. Will Rollins, who is running for a Riverside County seat, said “Prop 47 needs to be fixed,” though he did not specify his thoughts on the ballot measure. And Rudy Salas, a former legislator running for a House seat in the Bakersfield area, reiterated that he always opposed Prop 47 and tried to partially roll it back as a lawmaker. “The ballot reform measure is in line with what I have been doing,” he said in a statement. — with help from Emily Schultheis GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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