| In the interest of maintaining the majority, House leadership and former President Donald Trump have largely been on the same page with endorsements this cycle. But Colorado’s 5th District, a safe red seat, is an exception — Trump is backing embattled Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams, while Speaker Mike Johnson is supporting conservative commentator Jeff Crank. Democrats are grappling with their own intraparty conflicts. In the safe blue New York 16th District, a high-dollar primary challenge to the Squad’s Rep. Jamaal Bowman is the latest example of the Democratic Party’s divisions over the war in Gaza. Elsewhere in the state, Democrats are picking their nominees to take on Republicans in battleground races that will play a major role in determining control of the House. Here are the races to watch today: — New York: Incumbents have proved hard to unseat this cycle. But Bowman could be the first Democrat to lose a reelection bid this year. The two-term incumbent has to overcome his public blunders and a barrage of spending from outside groups to beat George Latimer, a popular county executive. The contentious race is the biggest bet so far for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has dropped millions in primaries on both sides of the aisle this year. And while Bowman’s race won’t affect the chamber’s majority — the winner would cruise to victory in November in the deep-blue seat — control could be determined elsewhere in New York this fall, and Tuesday’s will set those battleground races. Two contested Democratic primaries are taking place in the 1st and 22nd Districts to take on Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Brandon Williams, respectively. In the 1st District on Long Island, former CNN anchor John Avlon and Nancy Goroff, a former professor who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2020, are facing off in an increasingly contentious and expensive primary. Farther upstate, Williams will find out whether his challenger in this district that President Joe Biden won in 2020 will be state Sen. John Mannion or town councilor Sarah Klee Hood, who came in second place in the Democratic primary during the midterms. A handful of other House battlegrounds don’t have primaries, but will be competitive in November. Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. — Colorado: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert abandoned her 3rd District and is now running in the 4th District, a deep red seat that former Rep. Ken Buck left earlier this year. There are two contests on the ballot today: the special election to replace Buck for the rest of the year and the primary for the full term starting in 2025. Boebert chose not to run in the special election so she wouldn’t have to vacate her current seat. (Greg Lopez, Republicans’ special election nominee, is not running for the full term.) A half-dozen candidates are running in the GOP primary field, and Boebert has a strong financial advantage, as well as the coveted endorsement from Trump. Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former congressional and campaign staffer, will face Lopez in the special election. She’s also running for the full term, where she’s up against Ike McCorkle and John Padora, both of whom have her beat on the fundraising front. In Boebert’s old seat, Democrat Adam Frisch — a strong fundraiser who came less than one point away from unseating her two years ago — is attacking Jeff Hurd, establishment Republicans’ preferred pick, in an effort to boost Republican Ron Hanks. Hanks has a controversial past that could put into play what might otherwise be an uncompetitive seat. And that’s not the only primary meddling going on in Colorado. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, two super PACs that have played in safe-seat Republican primaries across the country this cycle in an attempt to thwart potential troublemakers, have dropped close to $2 million combined in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, boosting Crank over Williams, the state party chair who has aligned himself closely with Trump. Most critically, the state party endorsed former state Rep. Janak Joshi over state Rep. Gabe Evans, who has the support of national Republicans like Johnson, for the GOP nod to take on Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the battleground 8th District. Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. — Utah: The Utah Republican Party is backing a handful of Republicans running to the right of incumbents, including state Rep. Phil Lyman, who’s running against Gov. Spencer Cox, and Colby Jenkins, who’s looking to unseat Rep. Celeste Maloy. Maloy can boast having the Trump endorsement, along with the backing of most of her congressional delegation (except Sen. Mike Lee, who’s supporting her opponent). Cox, who has spoken out against the former president, may not have that to rely on, but he is one of the most popular governors in the country. The Trump factor is also prevalent in the race to replace one of his biggest critics: retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney. Trump is backing Trent Staggs, a local mayor who also has the state party’s nod in the crowded field. But polling has shown Rep. John Curtis with a lead. There are five Republicans in the contest to succeed Curtis in the red 3rd District, including state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who has the party backing, and self-funding businessperson Case Lawrence. Polls close at 10 p.m. EST. — South Carolina: The power of Trump’s endorsement is once again put to the test in the Republican primary runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District. Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns and nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs, who has the backing of Gov. Henry McMaster, are facing off in the safe red seat to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan, and the winner of today’s race will likely cruise to victory in the fall. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action have mobilized against Burns. Polls close at 7 p.m. EST. It’s Tuesday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Republican National Convention: 20 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 55 Days until the 2024 election: 133
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