There's an adage about bull markets and how they tend to end: Bull markets don't die of old age, they're killed by the Federal Reserve. And, in fact, we saw exactly that happen recently. The Fed began one of the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycles in March 2022, taking its target rate from near zero to above 5.25% by August 2023. Sure enough, the last bull market ended, and a bear market ensued - with the S&P 500 falling 25% from early January 2022 through mid-October that year. The market tends to start falling before rate hikes start, and then bottoms before they end as investors anticipate what the Fed will do. You can see that in action in this chart... |
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