Wednesday, June 5, 2024

The right’s case for tax hikes

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Jun 05, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Sam Sutton

Presented by Citi

Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

QUICK FIX

American Compass, a conservative think tank that’s increasingly influential among populist-leaning Republican s, is taking a big, new swing at the GOP’s fiscal cognoscenti, Zach Warmbrodt reports.

In a survey and budget model out today, the group argues that Washington must embrace tax increases as well as spending cuts to tame the deficit. It follows other signals from Republican leaders including House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith that there may be bipartisan support for a corporate tax hike when Congress addresses the expiring Trump tax cuts next year.

American Compass says the goal should be finding $250 billion in spending cuts and $150 billion in tax increases that “both sides could tolerate and see through.”

The group says that years of “proposals and posturing” from Republicans and Democrats alike “imagine away politics, envisioning a world in which one side achieves all its priorities and the other gets nothing.”

“Democratic budgets make emergency spending permanent and leave trillions in deficits as far as the eye can see, while Republican budgets rely upon spending cuts that not even Republicans support or rely upon economic growth to close gaps,” the group says. “Such proposals are not only dead on arrival in Congress, but also disregard the overwhelming preference of American voters for deficit reduction through a combination of both higher taxes and lower spending.”

To set the stage, American Compass says a March survey conducted by YouGov found that the typical American would address the deficit through 40 percent tax increases and 60 percent spending cuts. Per Zach’s reporting, most Democrats believe at least half of deficit reduction should come from spending cuts and most Republicans believe at least a quarter should come through tax increases.

Clean energy programs, higher education and student loans, and defense are the three most popular areas to cut, while Medicare and Social Security are the least popular targets. As for revenue, a “broad consensus” would focus tax increases on incomes over $250,000, corporate profits and tariffs.

IT’S WEDNESDAY — Zach’s doing his best Pacino-in-Godfather, Pt. III impression, it seems. Send tips and suggestions to me at ssutton@politico.com.

A message from Citi:

How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape. Central banks are working across global stakeholders to help determine what future adoption might look like – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses. Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.

 
Driving the Day

A House Appropriations subcommittee votes on the fiscal 2025 financial services funding bill at 8:30 a.m. … Trade deficit data for April is out at 8:30 a.m. … SEC Chair Gary Gensler will appear on CNBC at 9:10 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a hearing on tokenization at 9 a.m. … Senate Budget holds a hearing on climate and insurance at 10 a.m. … Gensler, New York Fed head of markets Michelle Neal and Treasury assistant secretary Josh Frost speak at the ISDA/SIFMA Treasury forum at 11:10 a.m. … CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam speaks at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Trading Conference in New York at 12:30 p.m.

 

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Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our financial services reporting team—including Zach Warmbrodt, Victoria Guida and Declan Harty—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of financial policy and the financial services industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.

 
 
Remembering Ben White

The Morning Money team learned yesterday that our friend, colleague and mentor Ben White — the architect of this newsletter — had died over the weekend due to complications from ongoing heart issues. He was 52 years old.

Like many of you, I had followed and admired Ben’s work for years. Few reporters could match his ability to take arcane economic policy stories and spin them into something that would resonate with any audience. It was like watching Mariano Rivera of Ben’s beloved New York Yankees throw a cut fastball, and for this newsroom and beyond, it set a standard for how this work is done.

The reason this newsletter works is because Ben worked. He was a scoop machine. He set the bar exceedingly high. His Rolodex was the envy of every economic and financial reporter. He covered every major story on this beat from the dot-com bust to the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. He had fun doing it, too. It was infectious to those of us who had a chance to work alongside him.

You could see that in the stories he broke. From the staggering price tags on Jeb Bush fundraisers to the economic personnel scoops he delivered like clockwork through the Trump administration — including Jay Powell’s emergence as a top candidate for Fed chair. Trade wars. Debt ceilings. The diminishing returns of baby boomer leadership. From the time he joined POLITICO in 2009, Ben covered it all.

His last report for POLITICO, which arrived shortly before he left for a new opportunity in early 2023, was about how policymakers need to finally “abolish the debt limit in its current form. Kill it. Soak it in gasoline and toss in a match.” Who else had that kind of flair? It’s impossible to read that and not think: “That’s Ben White.”

Most importantly to his friends, he was a kind and patient man. He took the time to listen. He understood what it meant to struggle with a story, and he always lent his hand to reporters who asked for it. He often had an invisible hand on stories that didn’t bear his byline. In a profession where warmth and empathy are sometimes lacking, he was a rare breed. That is why everyone is so heartbroken now that he’s gone.

"He set a high standard — professionally as a journalist, and personally as a human — that so many of our colleagues across the industry are remembering today," POLITICO's Global Editor-in-Chief John Harris wrote in a letter to the newsroom on Tuesday.

We’ll miss you, man.

In lieu of flowers, his family has asked that donations be made to the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI).

h/t Victoria Guida, Katy O’Donnell, Sudeep Reddy 

Congress

Senate movement on cryptoSenate Agriculture ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.) says he’s working closely with committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) on legislation that would overhaul how crypto is regulated in the U.S., Eleanor Mueller reports.

First in MM: Warren and Waters press Gensler on climate enforcement — The SEC’s landmark climate disclosure rule on hold amid legal challenges. But Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and House Financial Services’ top Democrat Maxine Waters of California — along with three dozen additional Democratic lawmakers — are calling on Chair Gary Gensler to step up enforcement of existing climate-related disclosure guidance. And if the rule is upheld, they’re also demanding the agency provide “prompt” guidance on a controversial provision that ties emissions disclosures to their significance, or materiality, according to a letter to Gensler shared with MM.

Credit card bill unaffected by GOP pledge — Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said Tuesday he has received assurances from the Senate Republican Steering Committee that credit card swipe fee legislation from Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin is exempt from a recent GOP pledge to oppose Democratic legislation, Eleanor reports. “The steering committee and myself, we addressed what was or wasn't [covered], and I think we're going to be OK," Marshall, who cosponsors the bill and signed the pledge, told reporters.

 

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Treasury

Yellen optimistic on Russian asset plan Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday told lawmakers that the administration’s plan to provide support to Ukraine with interest that’s accruing on seized Russian assets “seems to be commanding considerable support” among U.S. allies, Michael Stratford reports. “We're hopeful that this can be worked into something to be presented to the leaders at the G7” meeting later this month.

 

POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know.

 
 
The Economy

The Immigration Conundrum Following up on yesterday’s MM, Nick Niedzwiadek dug into how Biden’s immigration order could come at a steep economic expense. “If the executive order is successful in greatly reducing border crossings, then it would have a meaningful impact on the economy,” Chloe East, a University of Colorado Denver economist, said in an interview.

Speaking of the labor market — U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level in more than three years in April, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday. On X, White House Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jared Bernstein said the report shows “that the labor market has continued to come into better balance and has done so while maintaining persistently solid, full-employment-like conditions.”

So many blow-up stick figures, flapping in the wind — With rates still elevated, fewer Americans are buying cars. The New York Times reports that auto dealer inventories have rebounded as chip supplies returned and production resumed. That’s forced some dealers to resort to pre-inflation tactics like discounts and subsidized loans.

A message from Citi:

How will digital currencies shape the future of finance?

As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses.

Blockchain-based products can make a significant impact in terms of wide consumer adoption in digital currency, especially central bank digital currency (CBDCs), gaming, and social. Momentum on adoption has positively shifted as governments, large institutions, and corporations have moved from investigating the benefits of tokenization to trials and proofs of concept.

Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.

 
 

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Sam Sutton @samjsutton

 

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