| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear in the past about Israel’s intentions to enter Rafah, the timing of his latest comment is notable. | Pool photo by Ohad Zwigenberg | With help from Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A coalition of nearly 50 humanitarian organizations sent a letter to the White House condemning a potential Rafah invasion, saying that despite Israeli claims, “no such credible humanitarian plan is feasible.” Led by Win Without War, Oxfam America, and Middle East Democracy Center, the groups outline their concerns about the potential danger to the 1.4 million Palestinians sheltering in the southern city if Israel decides to invade. Today, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said Israel will move on the city, regardless of whether Hamas agrees to the latest Israeli proposal for a cease-fire. “We fear an offensive in Rafah would spur escalating violence across the region and derail ongoing negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza and for the release of the remaining Israeli hostages,” the groups wrote in the letter addressed to President JOE BIDEN. If Rafah is invaded, they say, the main aid distribution hub for the territory would collapse. Netanyahu said Israel will enter the city to “eliminate the Hamas battalions there — with or without a deal, in order to achieve the total victory.” Some families of hostages held by Hamas also urged the prime minister today to “withstand the international pressure” to halt the war in Gaza, according to Netanyahu’s office. The Biden administration and European leaders are mostly aligned with the aid groups’ position. But Netanyahu’s remarks suggest that any pressure campaigns to avert an invasion don’t seem to be working. “There is no doubt in Israeli leaders’ minds — no doubt — our view about the perils of a major ground operation conducted in Rafah,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today. Last month, Biden said an invasion that doesn’t protect civilians would be a “red line” for the U.S. The U.S. still hasn’t seen an indication that there's a plan to ensure the safety of Rafah’s population, Kirby said, though Israel has said it plans to move Palestinians to “humanitarian islands” elsewhere in central Gaza. European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN also said an invasion would be “completely unacceptable” and U.N. Secretary-General ANTONIO GUTERRES said the operation would be an “unbearable escalation.” While Netanyahu has been clear in the past about Israel’s intentions to enter Rafah, the timing of his latest comment is notable. Negotiators have been working to secure a hostage deal that would lock in a cease-fire before Israel decides to invade the city. There’s been talk of a hostage deal and a Rafah invasion for months, but seemingly little movement on either. Biden, the groups argue, must exert more pressure on Israel: “The regional stakes have not been this high since the war began. We urge your administration to use all of its influence to prevent such an operation from occurring.”
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | ATACMS DOWN: The U.S. rebuked Russia’s claim that its forces shot down six U.S.-provided long-range missiles that were launched toward Crimea today. “We have no indications this claim is accurate, and the Russians do have a long history of embellishing and inventing battlefield achievements,” a U.S. official, granted anonymity to detail private assessments, told our own ALEX WARD. Russia’s defense ministry said 10 Ukrainian drones, six Army Tactical Missile Systems and two guided “Hammer” missiles made by France were shot down. The claims come as Ukraine struggles to make headway against Russian troops, though the new influx of U.S. assistance may lead to more offensives from Ukraine in the coming months. For now, there doesn’t seem to be much change in the war: A Russian airstrike hit a school in the Black Sea port of Odesa today, killing at least five people, Reuters’ IRYNA NAZARCHUK reports. Read: Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasoline by our own GABRIEL GAVIN ANDRÉS EXPECTATIONS: Celebrity Chef JOSÉ ANDRÉS blasted the Israel Defense Forces for its treatment of humanitarian aid workers in Gaza today, urging the military to do more to protect those working in the territory. In a Washington Post op-ed, the chef explained that his food charity, World Central Kitchen, is heading back to Gaza after seven of its workers were killed in an Israeli strike earlier this month, citing the dire need of Palestinians in the densely packed enclave. But he’s still unclear how Israel plans to protect aid workers — and called on its forces to respect Palestinians who are part of his team. Protection and respect “has been rare since we have been in the region,” Andrés wrote. “For example, though every team member is vetted and cleared before every food delivery mission, our Palestinian team members have been stripped and humiliated by Israeli soldiers while engaged in work that has been coordinated with, and approved by, the IDF.” His convoys have been held up at IDF checkpoints for hours despite coordination with the Israeli government, he wrote, making their aid efforts more difficult. “The biggest challenge is the one the Netanyahu government has almost entirely failed to address,” he continued. “Without law and order on the ground in Gaza, there is a constant threat to civilians around any food aid.” UN DECISION ON ARMS TO ISRAEL: The United Nations’ International Court of Justice decided today against ordering Germany to stop sending arms to Israel, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports. Nicaragua had accused Germany in March of “facilitating genocide” by supplying Israel with military and financial aid as it fights Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Western intelligence officials and diplomats told POLITICO they believed Nicaragua had filed the case against Germany at the U.N.'s top court at the behest of Moscow, saying that Russia intended to undermine the ICJ’s authority by making it a venue for specious legal arguments. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | THE SECOND TERM DOCTRINE: There’s a lot of foreign policy nuggets to unpack in former President DONALD TRUMP’s sweeping interview with Time’s ERIC CORTELLESSA. Trump didn’t shut the door on aid to Ukraine, saying “I’m going to try and help Ukraine but Europe has to get there also and do their job … if Europe isn't going to pay, who are gravely more affected than we are. If Europe is not going to pay, why should we pay?” That statement contradicts what Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN said after his March meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. At the time, Orbán told Hungarian state media Trump wouldn’t give any more funding to Ukraine. On NATO, Trump said he sees no need to restructure the alliance, re-upping his charge that European members of the alliance have not been meeting defense spending targets. “I don't need to renegotiate the terms of the treaty. All I need to do is have them pay their bills. They don't pay their bills,” he said. He also expressed doubts that NATO allies would defend the U.S. in the event of an attack on its mainland territory, saying: “But I believe if we were attacked, NATO wouldn't be there. Many of the countries in NATO would not be there.” (The only time Article V has ever been triggered was in response to the Sept. 11 attacks.) Meanwhile, Trump’s enmity with Netanyahu continues. Trump said “Bibi Netanyahu rightfully has been criticized for what took place on October 7” and praised his rival BENNY GANTZ. He also cast cold water on the idea of a two-state solution at the end of the war, noting: “There was a time when I thought two states could work. Now I think two states is going to be very, very tough.” He also called the IDF the “Israel Defense Fund.” Read: What Canada wants Trump to know if he wins by our own ALEXANDER BURNS
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | NOT USING 702 AS MUCH? A government transparency report released today found a steep decline in the number of times FBI analysts used a contentious foreign spy tool to sift for Americans’ communications in 2023, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!). FBI analysts queried the Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act database for information pertaining to Americans 57,094 times in 2023, after conducting those searches roughly 120,000 times in 2022 and 3 million times in the preceding year. Officials attributed the decline to a number of internal fixes the FBI implemented from 2021 to 2023. In prior years, the FBI harnessed the tool, extensively, often flouting internal rules meant to safeguard the privacy of Americans. That provoked a backlash in this Congress to the powerful spy law, which almost expired twice in the last five months. Lawmakers finally approved a plan to re-up Section 702 two weeks ago, but the transparency report could have reignited debate over the legislation since privacy advocates say it was jammed through without proper debate.
| | IN TURNER’S ORBIT: The top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee challenged Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on the Biden administration’s refusal to release more information about Russia’s anti-satellite capabilities in space. At a House Armed Services Committee hearing today, Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) noted Russia’s veto of a U.S. and Japan-led U.N. Security Council resolution last week and asked Austin about the threat of a nuclear detonation in outer space. Austin acknowledged the risks a space-deployed nuclear weapon would pose but stopped short of directly discussing Russia’s efforts to potentially develop such weapons. Turner then pressed Austin on why the administration was not releasing that information: “The reason why you’re stumbling is because the Biden administration refused to declassify this information,” Turner said. “I believe that this is a Cuban Missile Crisis in space, and this administration is sleepwalking itself into an international crisis.” Read: House NDAA will stick to $895B defense spending cap, Rogers says (for Pros!) by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CLOSE THE LOOPHOLES: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill today that would help close loopholes that allow unregistered agents of foreign adversaries to lobby in the United States. The Preventing Adversary Influence, Disinformation and Obscured Foreign Financing (PAID OFF) Act would aim to fix loopholes in the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-Rhode Island), along with Reps. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas) and JASON CROW (D-Colo.) introduced the bill. “For too long, America’s adversaries have taken advantage of loopholes in our lobbying system to influence policymaking through multimillion-dollar disinformation campaigns,” Cornyn said in a statement. The legislation requires foreign agents “from countries like China and Russia to register and disclose political activity to the Department of Justice.” The Foreign Agents Registration Act hasn’t been updated since the 1990s, and lawmakers argued that it hasn’t kept up with modern influence campaigns. Co-sponsors on the bill include Sens. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa), MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla), BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), and DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.). BIDEN’S ASSAD BILL MOVE: The White House swatted efforts from lawmakers, and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to add sanctions against Syrian leader BASHAR AL-ASSAD to the foreign aid package passed last week, according to The Washington Post’s JOSH ROGIN. A bipartisan group of lawmakers sought to include the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act in the supplemental, which would sanction Syrian politicians and figures in Arab Gulf countries working to rehabilitate the pilloried regime. But the Biden administration, and powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), have blocked the measure and the White House kept it from being included in the supplemental. A White House official told the Post that they believe they have the requisite tools at their disposal to punish Assad and his partners. They also worry that additional sanctions would further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Syria while doing little to hold the Assad regime accountable.
| | | SCARBOROUGH SHOAL-DOWN: The Philippines accused China of damaging two of its vessels at the Scarborough Shoal, Reuters reports. At a press conference in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN defended China’s response, saying the vessels violated Chinese sovereignty over the disputed waters and adding that the “China Coast Guard took necessary measures to expel them in accordance with the law.” The damage to the ships, allegedly caused by a Chinese water cannon, represents the latest spike in tensions between China and its neighbors over access to the disputed South China Sea. It is also the first time in recent weeks that a vessel was targeted at the Scarborough Shoal, as most flare-ups in recent weeks have occurred at the Second Thomas Shoal. The incident follows several high-level bilateral engagements between the Philippines and the U.S., as countries in the region increasingly voice concerns about China’s military provocations in the economically vital stretch of sea.
| | — Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) is the new chair of the House Armed Services Cyber subcommittee. He replaces former Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.), who officially left Congress during last week’s recess.
| | — ELISABETH BRAW, POLITICO: As Russia’s shadow fleet menaces Sweden, here’s how the EU could help — MICHAEL MAZARR, TIM SWEIJS, DANIEL TAPIA, RAND Corporation: The sources of renewed national dynamism — JACOB STOKES, Center for a New American Security: Beyond China's black box
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | — Senate Finance Committee, 9 a.m.: Hacking America's health care: assessing the change healthcare cyber attack and what's next — PunchBowl News, 9 a.m.: A discussion on "the news of the day, national security modernization and warfighter readiness in the U.S" with Rep. ROSA DeLAURO (D-Conn.) — Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 10 a.m.: A virtual discussion with GREG RYCKMAN, deputy DIA director for global integration — U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, 10 a.m.: A virtual discussion on the 2024 Annual Report, marking the 25th anniversary of the enactment of the International Religious Freedom Act. — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Conflict and humanitarian emergency in Sudan: an urgent call to action — George Washington University Space Policy Institute, 10:30 a.m.: A book discussion on "The Oxford Handbook of Space Security" — Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy, 12 p.m.: Human rights and political prisoners in Tunisia — Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: Foreign policy priorities for Britain's Labour Party and the case for progressive realism — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Naval Institute, 1 p.m.: DOD's warfighting concept — House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: A hearing on the cyberattack on Change Healthcare and how it impacts patients and providers — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Pivotal states: Russia and U.S. global strategy — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: From 1979 to 2024: evaluating the Taiwan Relations Act and assessing the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations — House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Surveying CIRCIA (Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act): sector perspectives on the notice of proposed rulemaking — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: FY2025 request for the United States army — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: FY2025 budget request for national security space programs — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Cyber incident reporting in the communications sector — Vandenberg Coalition, 6 p.m.: “Celebrating NATO's 75th Anniversary," focusing on the "enduring utility of NATO and their recommendations for its continued success in the 21st century." Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who should be sent before the International Court of Justice. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would be a fair judge.
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