CLIMATE BUZZ: The Biden administration has signaled it could move aggressively to craft new climate trade rules if Joe Biden is reelected to the White House for a second term, a former White House official said. “They are clearly beginning to think about what a robust ‘term two’ climate and trade agenda might look like,” Peter Harrell, a former senior Biden White House economic official, said during a discussion hosted last week by the Washington International Trade Association. One concrete sign is a speech that White House climate adviser John Podesta gave last week at Columbia University, Harrell said. “Right now, our existing trade policies and the international rules that govern them don’t pay enough attention to the emissions embodied in tradable goods,” Podesta said in those remarks at the university’s Global Energy Summit. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is on the new White House Climate and Trade Task Force that Podesta announced last Tuesday. It is expected to focus on three areas: — Developing a climate and trade policy toolkit. — Obtaining credible, robust and granular data to implement smart climate and trade policies. — Identifying what more the U.S. can do to help its domestic producers. Tai also told Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) at last week’s Senate Finance Committee trade hearing that she reviewed Podesta’s speech before it was delivered. What about Trump: The WITA discussion brought together four former Trump and Biden administration officials to discuss what direction trade policy could take, depending on which candidate wins the November presidential election. Steven Vaughn, who served as USTR general counsel under Donald Trump, said he thought the former president was skeptical of the clean energy subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act — but he wouldn’t necessarily seek to reverse every one. Kelly Ann Shaw, a former Trump White House official, said it would be hard for Trump to repeal the IRA unless Republicans grab control of both the House and Senate. But Trump likely would tighten some of the regulations to keep Chinese companies from benefiting, she said. Also, even though Trump and many other Republicans don’t embrace the “theology” of climate change, they could still pursue new agreements that raise environmental standards to eliminate the competitive advantage some countries have, Shaw said. Trade deals: Speakers at the WITA event saw little chance that Biden would change course and begin negotiating free trade agreements if elected to a second term. Vaughn said Trump would likely pursue new trade deals, but only after increasing his leverage by threatening to raise tariffs or actually taking that action. He said Trump’s threats to impose a new universal 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, and to hike tariffs even further on Chinese goods, should be taken seriously. Greta Peisch, who recently served in the Biden administration as USTR general counsel, said the business community should give up any hope of the United States returning to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But Podesta’s memo signaled “a lot of creative thinking” about how the U.S. could use trade tools to support goals like addressing climate change, she said. USMCA renegotiation: Both Harrell and Peisch said they expected Biden would aggressively use the mandatory Year Six review of the USMCA beginning in 2026 to fix any problems that have emerged in the agreement. Vaughn and Shaw argued there would be a far more “robust” USMCA renegotiation if Trump is re-elected because of his willingness to use tactics such as tariff threats to exert pressure on Canada and Mexico. CHINA HITS WASHINGTON WITH CHEMICAL TARIFFS: China slapped a 43.5 percent tariff on U.S. imports of propionic acid — a chemical often used as a preservative — inflaming tensions as officials from the world's largest economies call for stronger cooperation. The announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce references an investigation from July, in which the agency found the chemical was being dumped in the country at rock-bottom prices, and that Chinese industry was materially damaged as a result. Tensions rise: The move comes as Biden urges USTR to consider tripling the current Section 301 tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. Tai said last week that the Biden administration was in the final stages of its review of whether to modify any of the tariffs that Trump imposed during his time in office on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. Keep in mind: U.S. officials and those from other western governments have repeatedly warned that China could flood the global market with low-priced goods as a result of industrial capacity and its subsidies for manufacturing. China has rejected those accusations and accuses the U.S. of embracing protectionism instead of boosting global competition. HOUSE APPROVES BILL TO DIVEST TIKTOK: The House passed a measure Saturday that aims to force a sale of TikTok, seize frozen Russian assets to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, and impose sanctions and other measures against Russia, China and Iran. The bill, filled with GOP policy sweeteners, was included in Speaker Mike Johnson’s foreign aid funding package as a way to bolster Republican support for tens of billions of dollars in long-delayed aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific, our Congress team writes. What’s next: After Saturday’s House vote, the set of aid bills including the TikTok provision heads to the Senate. It’s expected to pass, since it’s considered priority legislation for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. One step back: The Senate previously sat on the earlier, House-passed TikTok bill in mid-March, letting it stall in the Senate Commerce Committee. This version, however, was updated based on negotiations with key senators, including Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), to help it hold up in the courts. No guarantee: One potential hold-up is Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). He has opposed the TikTok bill from the start, as well as the larger aid package, and could filibuster it. That’d force Schumer to invoke cloture, requiring 60 votes to stop debate on the bill and move to a roll call vote. Rebecca Kern has more. TOMATO GROWERS SUFFER LEGAL SETBACK: Florida tomato growers suffered a legal setback last week at the Court of International Trade in their campaign to persuade the Biden administration to impose anti-dumping duties on imports from Mexico. The CIT ruled in favor of a case brought by a large Mexican grower that challenged the Commerce Department’s methodology to calculate the potential duties. This ruling delays a court decision on the Florida Tomato Exchange’s petition for the Commerce Department to terminate the current “suspension” agreement with Mexico and impose anti-dumping duties. Still, the Exchange said it was undeterred.
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