| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE HOPIUM WARS — Our polling guru Steve Shepard is out this morning with new analysis that pokes a few holes in an emerging Democratic argument about DONALD TRUMP’s polling strength. No need to get overly worried about Trump’s persistent swing-state leads over President JOE BIDEN, the thinking goes, since primary polling routinely overestimated Trump’s performance among GOP voters. The tl;dr from Steve: “They shouldn’t count on it. … That’s because the reason polling overestimated Republican margins in the primaries and special elections is unlikely to be duplicated in the general election: It was hard for pollsters to know which voters were going to show up.”
|  For the first time as president, Joe Biden will be at the head table at the Gridiron dinner, as will Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. | Jonah Elkowitz for POLITICO | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: EXCLUSIVE GRIDIRON PREVIEW — Tonight is the 139th anniversary dinner of the Gridiron Club and Foundation, and for the first time as president, Biden will be at the head table in front of hundreds of women in great gowns, beautiful gowns and men wearing ridiculous Penguin suits. Here’s some juicy tidbits on what’s planned … — VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will make their first appearance at the event as second couple. First daughter ASHLEY BIDEN will be attending with her father, and first sister VALERIE BIDEN OWENS will be in the crowd. — Attendees will include 12 Cabinet members, five governors, five senators, three House members, 21 foreign ambassadors and D.C. Mayor MURIEL BOWSER. — An unprecedented two foreign leaders will attend at the head table: Irish Taoiseach LEO VARADKAR and Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS. (The last foreign leader attended in 1898: Republic of Hawaii President SANFORD DOLE.) — For the customary “speech in the dark,” DAN BALZ, the oldest Gridiron president, has a quip or two ready for the oldest U.S. president. He’ll note that Biden’s presence continues a tradition that began with BENJAMIN HARRISON: “The president’s eyes brightened, and he said: ‘Now that was a great show.’” — Among the politicos set to be lampooned in the dinner’s trademark musical skits: Trump, Harris, GRETCHEN WHITMER, LIZ CHENEY, JOHN FETTERMAN, JAMES COMER, JANET YELLEN, TAYLOR SWIFT and COMMANDER (the dog). LAUREN BOEBERT and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE, CHRIS LaCIVITA and JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, and RON DeSANTIS and VIVEK RAMASWAMY are set to get the duet treatment. — In one skit, “Justice CLARENCE THOMAS” will do a personalized rendition of the Beatles’ “With a Little Help From My Friends” (“Lend me your plane / and your yacht would be nice / And please finance my fancy RV”), while in another “Sen. BOB MENENDEZ” will do his take on a NEIL YOUNG classic (“I cashed my vote in / for some bars of gold”).
| | | | A message from Invest in Our Land: In 2022, Congress invested $20 billion in conservation funding to protect America's family farms. Now, they could roll back that investment. These funds help strengthen family businesses, lower costs, and increase profits, but most importantly, they protect the future of American farms.
Congress: Protect conservation funding, and keep farming viable for generations.
Protect Conservation Funding. | | | TRUMP’S PROSECUTORS EXHALE — As we laid out in yesterday’s Playbook, Trump’s opponents in the courts and in politics started the day facing a possible nightmare scenario: that none of the criminal cases against the former president might go to trial before the November election. They lucked out, for the most part. Georgia Judge SCOTT McAFEE opted not to banish Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS from her sprawling election subversion case, and New York Judge JUAN MERCHAN instituted only a three-week delay in Trump’s Manhattan hush-money case. Now, Willis did not emerge unscathed. McAfee had some exceedingly harsh words for her even as he concluded her relationship with subordinate prosecutor NATHAN WADE (who resigned yesterday) did not constitute a fatal conflict of interest. And, as NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim write in a stepback, her problems are far, far from over. “Republicans have smelled blood,” they write. “The G.O.P. lawmakers who dominate Georgia politics have created new ways to investigate Ms. Willis, which could potentially lead to her removal from office. … Mr. Trump has made Ms. Willis’s troubles a recurring talking point at rallies. All of these attacks could help to sow doubts about the district attorney and her case in the minds of future jurors.” Still, it’s a bit of a reset moment for the various Trump prosecutors, who had been getting outmaneuvered in court by the former president’s flurry of filings. As our colleagues Josh Gerstein, Kyle Cheney and Erica Orden write this morning, “the extent of the damage remains unclear, and it still seems conceivable Trump could face a jury in two or three of the cases before the year is out — though each day that passes without resolution makes cramming multiple trials into 2024 unlikely.” Here are the five big questions they are asking about what to expect next:
- Who will go first? “[T]he New York case — unlike the others — appears to stand a chance of going to trial this spring. So even with no set trial date at the moment, it remains the front-runner.”
- Could the Supreme Court further upend the schedule? “A ruling on the breadth of Trump’s presidential immunity could linger until the end of June … [and] reverberate in Trump’s other cases and once again force delays or changes to the charges themselves.”
- What’s taking so long in Florida? “[T]here isn’t even a schedule for arguments on a slew of other motions Trump’s attorneys have made to knock out the whole case and various parts of it. In fact, some of the motions aren’t even public due to an unresolved dispute about whether witness names should be excised from them first.”
- Will a New York delay benefit the Florida prosecution? “The reprieve for Trump in Manhattan could give [U.S. District Judge AILEEN] CANNON some wiggle room to schedule hearings on the pretrial matters she has before her, although that might rankle the judge handling the case in New York.”
- Could the Georgia trial still take place before November? “Though [McAfee] could have forced months of delay — or even the unraveling of the case altogether — if he had agreed to disqualify Willis over allegations of financial impropriety, the case is still wracked with turmoil and appears unlikely to be feasible in 2024.”
Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. COMING DOWN THE PIPE — We’d like to flag a fascinating story from our colleague Ry Rivard about a little-noticed court hearing yesterday that could have huge implications for government efforts to battle climate change. In short, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last year approved a new natural gas pipeline over objections from New Jersey, which said the capacity wasn’t needed and that it would harm the state’s ambitious climate goals. So a state agency and environmental groups sued, and the case is now before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals: “The judges, who were scheduled to hear a half-hour of oral arguments Friday morning, instead kept attorneys from New Jersey, FERC, environmental groups and the pipeline company arguing for nearly two hours,” Ry writes. The upshot: The decision (and a potential appeal to the Supreme Court) could set a major precedent setting out just how aggressively Democratic-run states can fight climate change as federal bodies, such as FERC, prioritize other concerns. One judge yesterday, Ry told us, “questioned if the agency is set up to handle big-picture questions about climate change and the future of energy” as New Jersey and others want it to.
| | | | A message from Invest in Our Land:   Protect Conservation Funding. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden will speak at the Gridiron Club and Foundation Dinner tonight at 10:05 p.m., with Harris and Emhoff also attending.
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“Dirty Jobs” host Mike Rowe is one of the people who was considered for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s VP pick. | Kevin Winter/Getty Images | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. VEEPSTAKES: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. has yet to announce his running mate, but we now know this person will be at least his second choice: Kennedy offered the VP spot to former Sen. SCOTT BROWN (R-Mass.), but Brown declined, he told the New Hampshire Journal’s Michael Graham earlier this week. Another contender is “Dirty Jobs” host MIKE ROWE, who gave NBC’s Allan Smith an inside look at Kennedy’s VP consideration process and declined to say whether he’s been offered the job. Rowe’s interview, which came as a surprise to him, ran through a variety of policy areas, including Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism. And Rowe says Kennedy didn’t mind some policy differences, wanting a “team of rivals” around him. 2. NO TEAM OF RIVALS HERE: A week and a half after NIKKI HALEY dropped out of the presidential race, Trump has yet to reach out to her or her top allies, as bad blood lingers between the two, Adam Wren and Meridith McGraw report. That could complicate his efforts to win over her supporters for the general election. Some big Haley donors say they’ll back Trump, but others are withholding their support for the time being. “It is incumbent on her and her team to try not to be negative against Trump,” one Trump adviser says. Meanwhile, MIKE PENCE said on Fox News yesterday that he will not support Trump — the man for whom he served as VP for four years — or Biden in November. 3. KNOWING TIM MELLON: “A Reclusive Heir Is Giving Millions to Help Trump and RFK Jr.,” by WSJ’s Tarini Parti: “A Wyoming-based recluse who became a major political donor in 2018, Mellon has so far contributed $20 million to Kennedy’s super PAC and an additional $15 million to Trump’s for the 2024 election … Republicans, many of whom had never heard of Mellon until recently, now think of him as a key backer, though most know very little about him. Some involved with super PACs who have received large checks from Mellon say they have never even communicated with him … One of the main issues driving Mellon’s giving is immigration.” 4. AIPAC IT UP: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is treading lightly in the wake of Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s big speech condemning Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s leadership, Hailey Fuchs and Elena Schneider report. The quiet response underscores “the difficulties it faces navigating a conflict that’s testing its own political influence. The war is also proving increasingly fraught for Democrats, and making things uncomfortable between AIPAC and some longtime allies in the party.” 5. ACTING PERMANENT: The White House is grappling with whom to select as HUD Secretary MARCIA FUDGE’s official replacement — and are currently considering names, Jennifer Haberkorn, Katy O’Donnell and Eugene report. Leaving ADRIANNE TODMAN in place as acting secretary for the rest of the year (as the administration is doing with JULIE SU at Labor) would avoid a big Senate confirmation process right before the election. But advocates say Biden should pick a permanent successor to Fudge — perhaps Todman, who is highly regarded — as a demonstration of his commitment to tackling crucial housing issues. The administration hasn’t made a final decision yet. 6. WHAT JARED KUSHNER IS UP TO: “Kushner Developing Deals Overseas Even as His Father-in-Law Runs for President,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman: He’s “closing in on major real estate deals in Albania and Serbia … Mr. Kushner’s plans in the Balkans appear to have come about in part through relationships built while Mr. Trump was in office. Mr. Kushner, who was a senior White House official, said he had been working on the deals with RICHARD GRENELL … Mr. Grenell has said privately that he hopes to be secretary of state in a second Trump administration.” 7. CASH DASH: At Mar-a-Lago, Trump has hosted the likes of LARRY ELLISON and PEPE FANJUL for lots of private dinners lately, mounting a “charm offensive” that his advisers hope could ultimately give his campaign a boost, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman report. Trump is facing a significant cash disparity with Biden this cycle, and multiple Trump donors have been asked lately if they could bump up from seven-figure to eight-figure pledges, as “some top donors remain hesitant” about contributing. Trump’s legal woes loom over his campaign as a significant personal financial drain.
| | | | A message from Invest in Our Land:   Protect Conservation Funding. | | | 8. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Ankle Monitors and Curfews: Inside Biden’s New Tracking System for Migrant Families,” by NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz in Healdsburg, California: “So far, the Family Expedited Removal Management program has tracked more than 19,000 people since May … More than 1,500 of them have been deported and around 1,000 have absconded by prying off their ankle monitors … Although the program has been used in only a fraction of claims, some U.S. officials see it as a test case for a faster way to deal with families seeking refuge in America.” 9. CLIMATE FILES: “The Zombies of the U.S. Tax Code: Why Fossil Fuels Subsidies Seem Impossible to Kill,” by NYT’s Lisa Friedman: “[E]nergy companies have spent more than $30 million since Mr. Biden was elected on lobbying efforts that included preserving the intangible drilling and depletion allowance tax breaks. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spends more than $100 million annually in lobbying on a wide range of issues, also cited energy tax breaks on its lobbying reports. Ending subsidies for oil and gas is not a new idea, but it has never gotten far.” CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies
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Michael Ramirez - Washington Post | GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “End the Phone-Based Childhood Now,” by Jonathan Haidt in The Atlantic: “The environment in which kids grow up today is hostile to human development.” — “My Never-Ending Search for Adderall,” by Jason Diamond in Esquire: “I am a 43-year-old man with ADHD. My life is a complicated mess, but medication works … if I can find it.” — “The War That Israel Could Have Fought,” by Richard Haass in the WSJ: “The horrific assault by Hamas demanded a firm response, but Israel has depended too much on military might and not enough on diplomacy and political vision.” — “Hal Machow Is Going to Die on Thursday. He Has One Last Message for Democrats,” by Sasha Issenberg in POLITICO Magazine: “It is time, he argues, not to reengineer the targeting of 30-second spots, direct-mail pieces and digital pre-roll ads but to rethink their basic purpose.” — “The hero,” by WaPo’s Dan Zak: “Rich Fierro fought in America’s war on terror. Then terror found him at home.” — “The Open-Air Prison for ISIS Supporters — and Victims,” by The New Yorker’s Anand Gopal: “Since the Islamic State fell, tens of thousands of people — many of them children — have been herded into Al-Hol, a giant fenced-in camp in Syria, and effectively given life sentences.” — “Flooded with Migrants,” by the Claremont Review of Books’ Christopher Caldwell: “Holland rediscovers Geert Wilders.” — “Gangsters, Money and Murder: How Chinese Organized Crime Is Dominating America’s Illegal Marijuana Market,” by ProPublica’s Sebastian Rotella and Kirsten Berg and The Frontier’s Garrett Yalch and Clifton Adcock: “A quadruple murder in Oklahoma shows how the Chinese underworld has come to dominate the booming illicit trade, fortifying its rise as a global powerhouse with alleged ties to China’s authoritarian regime.” — “It’s getting weirder: BuzzFeed News’ former royals reporter on Kate Middleton, Palace PR, and distrust in the media,” by Ellie Hall in Nieman Lab: “‘I cannot emphasize enough how out of character it is that a royal press team went on the record in response to what is essentially gossip.’” — “A Mission from God,” By Daniel de Visé in Airmail, excerpted from his new book, “The Blues Brothers” ($28): “How an epic friendship born out of quaaludes, comedy, and a shared love of R&B paved the way for The Blues Brothers.” — “Llamas, Pizzas, Mandolins: AI Doomerism,” by Paul Taylor in the London Review of Books
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Peter Navarro asked the Supreme Court to keep him out of prison. Bernie Moreno is getting — and dishing out — some, uh, creative sex-scandal campaign hits. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s family isn’t happy about those awards. Sam Bankman-Fried considered rebranding as an anti-woke Republican to save his image. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Tuesday night at a party for Carrie Sheffield’s new book “Motorhome Prophecies: A Journey of Healing and Forgiveness” ($29), hosted by Independent Women’s Network at the Graham hotel’s rooftop in Georgetown: Amber Schwartz, Asra Nomani, Roger Ream, Ellen Walter, Christina Gungoll Lepore, Ameshia Cross, Samantha Dravis, Britt McHenry, Gabriella Hoffman, Tom Rogan, Emily Miller, Jan Jekielek, Paul Farrell and Ginny Gentles. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Republican polling firm Cygnal is adding several new hires: Mike Kemp and Fred Cooper as account strategists, Carlisle Sutton as sampling strategist and Paulina Buzaite as executive assistant to CEO Brent Buchanan. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Alex Haskell is leaving his role as chief of staff for the Office of Legislative Affairs, Jennifer Haberkorn reports. He is moving to New York and will help with the Biden reelect. TRANSITION — Jon Hukill has launched a new PR and public affairs firm, Crimson Atlantic Communications. He most recently led earned media teams at Fovndry and kglobal, and previously was a digital news editor and political campaign spokesperson. Due to a production error, yesterday’s Playbook included an incorrect list of birthdays, so we’re including them here alongside today’s birthdays: HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) … Kevin Munoz … Lenny Alcivar … Brendan Buck … George Holman … Jack Limpert … former Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.) … Svante Myrick … POLITICO’s Mallory Culhane and Rebecca Graff … Megan Uhrich … Franklin Davis … Amanda Broun … Kate Dickens of S-3 Group … Patrick Dellinger of FlexPoint Media … Suzanne Smalley … Lauren Marshall of FGS Global … Joe Carapiet … Ariel Hill-Davis … Mark J. Green … former West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin … Tom Baer … Josh Deckard … Dean Rosen of Mehlman Consulting … John Bozzella of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation … Jenny 8. Lee … NYT’s Sopan Deb … Rachel Schindler … Marcus Weisgerber HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) … NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg … AP’s Julie Pace … MSNBC’s Amy Shuster … Art Collins … Jeff Nussbaum … former Reps. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.), Ron Kind (D-Wis.) and Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) (6-0) … WHCA Secretary Sara Cook … Andy Lewin of BGR Group … Ian McCaleb … WaPo’s Dalton Bennett and Ellen McCarthy … Scott Simon … Boeing’s Kevin Varney … Adam Blickstein … TechNet’s Carl Holshouser … Jordana Cutler … Brian Young … NYT’s Neil Vigdor and Brian Rosenthal … Gary Emerling … Blue Cross Blue Shield’s Ben Steinhafel … Rebecca Coffman THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): Fox News “MediaBuzz”: Donald Trump. CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) … Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine … Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). CBS “Face the Nation”: Mike Pence … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) … Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) … Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) … Catherine Russell … Kara Swisher. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) … Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Texas AG Ken Paxton … Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson. Panel: Kash Patel and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.). ABC “This Week”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … John Kirby. Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Rick Klein and Susan Glasser. NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … José Andrés. Panel: Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin and Symone Sanders-Townsend. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Elie Honig’s name.
| | | | A message from Invest in Our Land: In 2022, Congress invested $20 billion in America’s farmers and ranchers. These funds supported land conservation and profits for future generations of farmers. Now, Congress is considering rolling back this $20 billion investment in the upcoming Farm Bill, putting crucial programs out of reach for thousands of family farms. Protecting this $20 billion investment in conservation programs ensures more of America's farmers and ranchers can access these programs, and with them, the tools and supplies they need to power our nation’s agricultural economy.
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