Monday, March 25, 2024

Showdown in Cowtown

Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Mar 25, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by

Electronic Payments Coalition

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QUICK FIX

The financial policy saga to watch this week is unfolding in Fort Worth, where a Trump-nominated federal judge is giving the CFPB unexpected support in a brawl with banks.

At issue in the fight is a new CFPB rule that would cap credit card late fees at $8, down from $32. With billions of dollars on the line, industry groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Bankers Association quickly sued the bureau after the rule was finalized on March 5, accusing it of exceeding its authority and advancing policy that was driven more by politics than economics.

They took the CFPB to court in Texas, which the agency immediately blasted as “forum shopping.” While Fort Worth may be home to the world’s largest honky tonk (which MM can recommend if you’re into that kind of thing), the CFPB argues it’s not the headquarters for any of the major banks impacted by the rule.

All of the above was expected. But the quick smackdown that ensued from District Judge Mark Pittman was not, and it’s raising fresh questions about the business world’s legal tactics as trade groups ramp up litigation against Biden-era regulations.

In a stunning move, Pittman last week rejected a request by the banking trade groups to quickly pause the rule before it takes effect on May 14. Lawyers for the banks had argued that an immediate halt was necessary because of the time and effort it would take to print and issue new disclosures.

Pittman was unmoved. In a two-page order, he all but scolded the business groups for their “efforts to educate the court on what they believe the court does and does not need.” He also gave a nod to concerns about his Texas district becoming a magnet for litigation, noting that it saw more than 7,000 filings last year, compared to nearly 4,500 in the District of Columbia.

"Given these statistics, the court does not have the luxury to give increased attention to certain cases just because a party to the case thinks their case is more important than the rest," he wrote.

Pittman drafted the order just days after the Judicial Conference of the United States announced new steps to combat judge-shopping. As the Congressional Research Service highlighted in a report last week, there’s a new focus on the issue because of the growing prevalence of emergency litigation and nationwide injunctions against government actions.

This week, analysts expect Pittman to decide on whether the case should stay in Fort Worth or be moved to the nation’s capital, where the CFPB, Chamber and ABA are based.

Pittman signaled skepticism about keeping it in his court last week when he wrote that there “appears to be an attenuated nexus to the Fort Worth Division.” (The Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce is one of the plaintiffs.)

It's shaping up to be another potential blow to the banks. BTIG director of policy research Isaac Boltansky told clients in a note this weekend that the industry will probably either stay in front of an “antagonized judge” or the case will be moved to a “less ideologically sympathetic jurisdiction.”

Boltansky said the high conviction that the rule would be put on hold appears to have been misplaced “given the combination of industry's execution failure in court coupled with a healthy serving of bad luck.”

“We are still in the early innings of this litigation,” he said. “But it has not started the way anyone expected.”

Happy Monday — Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CRS: NO EVIDENCE THAT DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL WOULD HELP CONSUMERS OR SMALL BUSINESSES The independent Congressional Research Service (CRS) is the latest organization to release a report questioning whether the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill would help consumers or small businesses. CRS echoed an earlier report by the Richmond Fed noting that consumers failed to see any meaningful cost savings because of similar legislation imposing routing mandates and price caps on debit card interchange. Learn more HERE.

 
Driving the Week

Monday … Fed Governor Lisa Cook will give a lecture at Harvard on the dual mandate at 10:30 a.m. … The Consumer Bankers Association begins its CBA LIVE conference, which will include appearances from CFPB Director Rohit Chopra and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu

Tuesday … The Conference Board releases consumer confidence data at 10 a.m. … White House CEA Chair Jared Bernstein discusses the benefits of full employment in a Peterson Institute virtual discussion at 1 p.m.

Wednesday Graham Steele and Sheila Bair discuss the future structure of U.S. banking in a Peterson Institute virtual discussion at 9 a.m. … Fed Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at an Economic Club of New York reception at 6 p.m.

Thursday … University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for March is out at 10 a.m. … ABA’s economic advisory committee will release its economic forecast at 10:30 a.m.

Friday … U.S. markets are closed for Good Friday … February PCE data is out at 8:30 a.m. … Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks as part of a moderated discussion with Kai Ryssdal at a San Francisco Fed conference at 11:30 a.m.

 

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Driving the day

Inflation watch — This week’s big economic data drop is Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index for February. As Bloomberg reports, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price increases remained “uncomfortably high” last month, underscoring why central banks are being cautious about cutting rates too soon.

The Fed signaled last week that three cuts are still on the table this year. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Friday he now expects just a single quarter-point reduction because of persistent inflation and stronger-than-expected economic data.

According to Reuters, Bostic told reporters that he’s “definitely less confident than I was in December" that inflation will continue to fall toward the Fed's 2 percent target.

White House econ moves Navtej Dhillon has been promoted to NEC deputy director and deputy assistant to the president, after serving as NEC chief of staff ... Mike Konczal, previously of the Roosevelt Institute, is joining the administration as special assistant to the president for macroeconomic policy.

Trump deadline — The NYT has a look at the potential road ahead for seizing property from former President Donald Trump if he doesn’t come up with nearly half a billion dollars today to pay a civil fraud penalty.

“The buildings at the heart of the lawsuit — several that dot the Manhattan skyline, like 40 Wall Street, as well as a 212-acre property north of the city in Westchester County — sit like the smallest figurine inside a Russian nesting doll, protected by layer upon layer of legal entities. Lawyers specializing in bankruptcies, foreclosures and corporate insolvency warn that getting control over, and trying to liquidate, any of the former president’s flagship properties is an uphill battle.”

 

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China

Yellen to China — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is planning a return trip to China in April to meet with the country’s senior leadership, our Daniel Lippman and Phelim Kine scoop. It’s a follow-up to her Beijing visit in July that resulted in new economic and financial working groups aimed at solidifying U.S.-China communications.

Top China hawk to exit — Rep. Mike Gallagher, the top Republican on the House China select committee, has made the surprising decision to leave Congress on April 19. The move means House Republicans will have a one-vote majority. As for the China committee, a staffer said the panel’s work is expected to continue uninterrupted.

IMF chief’s message to Beijing — Per the FT, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that China’s economy is at a “fork in the road” where it must choose between past policies or “pro-market reforms” to unlock growth.

Regulatory Corner

FDIC scandal update — Michael Stratford reports that the FDIC special committee investigating workplace harassment allegations has appointed three new members as it aims to wrap up in the coming months.

The committee added as non-voting members Audient Group CEO Linda Miller, the former deputy executive director of the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee; European Central Bank supervisory board member Elizabeth McCaul; and Valmo Ventures founder Valerie Mosley, a former executive at Wellington Management.

Gensler’s crypto jab — SEC Chair Gary Gensler suggested that digital assets businesses are among those seeking to "whittle away at the SEC's disclosure regime," CoinDesk reports. He cited crypto firms’ refusal to register with the agency.

"Many would agree that the crypto markets could use a little disinfectant," Gensler said.

Payments company shut down — State regulators across the country ordered Sigue Corp. to halt money transmission activities because of its declining financial position, per the Conference of State Bank Supervisors.

 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CRS QUESTIONS WHETHER DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL WOULD HELP ANYONE AT ALL Every member of Congress should read the CRS analysis which discusses the impact the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill could have on small businesses and American families. Report after report has plainly demonstrated that consumers and small businesses did NOT save any money when Congress passed the 2010 Durbin Amendment, imposing new mandates on debit cards. Now, a decade later, why would anyone assume a monumental restructuring of our nation’s secure, worry-free credit card system would yield different results? After considering the facts, the only logical solution would be to strongly OPPOSE the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill. Click HERE to learn more.

 
Markets

Exploding Treasurys — The WSJ has a deep dive into the massive expansion of the $27 trillion market for U.S. government debt and why it’s making some investors nervous. For now, demand remains solid thanks to the lack of alternatives, with the primary buyers being hedge funds, money-market funds and foreign investors.

 

Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.

 
 
 

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