| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | A special election for an Alabama state House seat on Tuesday will serve as an early marker of how politically salient the sudden battle over access to in-vitro fertilization will be ahead of this year’s high-stakes contests for Congress and the White House. Look no further than the divergent strategies of Democrat Marilyn Lands and Republican Teddy Powell, a city councilmember, who are facing off for Alabama’s 10th state House District, a competitive seat in the northern part of the state. Lands is basing her message on reproductive health after running (and losing) on education, health care and the economy two years ago, while Powell’s team cut an ad on IVF but chose not to air it.
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Doctors from the Alabama Fertility Clinic take photos as the debate over IVF Fertility Bill in the House Chambers is voted on, March 6, 2024, in Montgomery, Alabama. | Butch Dill/AP | | Lands lost the race by around 7 points in 2022 to Republican David Cole, who resigned over the summer after pleading guilty to voter fraud. In 2020, former President Donald Trump narrowly won this district, and former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones — who is supporting Lands — won it by around 5 points. The race won’t change much in the state House, as Republicans currently have a supermajority. But her campaign is trying something different this time around: bringing abortion-rights messaging to the forefront — especially after the state Supreme Court ruling there that imperiled IVF and grabbed national headlines, before the legislature passed a law restoring access. In a recent television ad, Lands highlights an Alabama woman’s inability to get an abortion due to the state’s ban, and shares her own experience with abortion. One of the headlines flashing on screen refers to the state court’s IVF ruling. Lands said in an interview with Score that while she is still talking about those other issues from her previous campaign, she felt that centering her abortion story was “the exact right thing to do at this moment in time” because “more is at stake for the state right now.” Powell — who supports access to IVF but sees it as a distinct issue from abortion — said in an interview with Score that he doesn’t think IVF will be a big factor in the race, considering the legislation restoring access was enacted. Dalton Dismukes, an adviser to Powell, added that the campaign cut an ad after the ruling featuring a woman who used IVF, but chose not to use it because they did not want to “politicize” the issue. Powell accused Lands of turning it into a “national race” by focusing on reproductive rights, while his campaign has primarily emphasized issues like inflation and local infrastructure. “It's certainly an issue that needs to be dealt with, but not our top issue,” Powell said of reproductive rights. “I don't think that this is the issue that wins or loses the race.” Regardless of the outcome, it will be difficult to draw too many conclusions as to how IVF will play out in more high-profile races come the fall: It’s a special election in a state that won’t get any attention come November, and it’s months before the fight for Congress really heats up. But it could set the tone as Democrats seek to use this as a campaign issue — and Republicans figure out how to respond — in the coming months. Happy Monday! Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Alabama runoffs: 22 Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 29 Days until the Indiana primaries: 43 Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 50 Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 57 Days until the Texas runoffs: 64 Days until the Republican National Convention: 111 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 147 Days until the 2024 election: 225 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
| | IT’S A NO FROM ME — Democratic New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy ended her campaign for Senate on Sunday, clearing the way for Rep. Andy Kim to secure the Democratic nomination. “It is clear to me that continuing in this race will involve waging a very divisive and negative campaign, which I am not willing to do,” Murphy said. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez last week said that he was not running for reelection as a Democrat, but left the door open to an independent bid should he be exonerated from his bribery charges. HEADING FOR THE EXITS — Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) is calling it quits — months earlier than he said he would. Gallagher earlier this year said he would not seek reelection, but would serve out the rest of his term. But on Friday, he said he’s leaving on April 19. WI-08, a safe red district, will now stay empty through the rest of the term; he would have had to leave by April 9 to trigger a special election. State Sen. Andre Jacque and former state Sen. Roger Roth, both Republicans, are already in the running for the seat. INDEPENDENTS’ DAY — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a vocal Trump critic who said she’s not voting for him, did not rule out leaving the Republican Party to become an independent. “I am navigating my way through some very interesting political times. Let’s just leave it at that,” she told CNN’s Manu Raju. Murkowski is up for reelection in 2028. … Former New York Rep. George Santos said he’s leaving the Republican Party to become an independent. Santos previously announced a primary challenge to Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in NY-01, but said he will now file to run as an independent instead. Santos has until May 28 to submit 3,5000 signatures to make the ballot. RESIDUAL RESULTS — The race for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat continues. State Assemblymember Vince Fong and county sheriff Mike Boudreaux, both Republicans, advanced to a special election runoff on May 21 to finish the rest of McCarthy’s term. Both have already made it to the regularly scheduled general election, but the victor of the May runoff will have an advantage when voters decide who will earn the full term in November. … In California’s competitive 45th District, Democratic lawyer Derek Tran appears set to face off against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel. Tran and Garden City Councilmember Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, also a Democrat, were neck-and-neck for the second spot in the general election, but Nguyen-Penaloza conceded the race to Tran over the weekend before The Associated Press called it. … There’s still one tight race we’re waiting on from California’s Super Tuesday primaries. Democrat Sam Liccardo, the former mayor of San Jose, made it through the primary in the race to replace longtime Rep. Anna Eshoo in deep-blue CA-16. But the race for second place between Democrats Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian and state Assemblymember Evan Low has come down to just a handful of votes. FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — IfNotNow Movement, the liberal-leaning Jewish group, has rolled out endorsements for Democratic Reps. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Summer Lee (Pa.), Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.). They’re all members of The Squad who are seen as vulnerable to primary challenges this cycle because of their support for Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war. IfNotNow — which will focus on fieldwork in these districts — is part of Reject AIPAC, a broader coalition that launched this cycle to counteract an anticipated barrage of outside spending from the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee. … The Alabama Democratic Conference, a caucus of Black Democrats in the state, endorsed Shomari Figures over state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels in Democratic primary runoff for AL-02. The court-created district was drawn to give Black voters more representation in the state’s congressional delegation. The conference previously endorsed state Rep. Napoleon Bracy — who finished in third — in the primary. THE ROAD AHEAD — Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Jon Tester's (Mont.) prospects in November “essentially hinge on how successfully they can emphasize local investments they helped secure in Democrats’ big bills and their representation of their own constituents — rather than their key roles in determining who runs the Senate next year,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett writes. “Republicans will do everything they can to focus on the latter, and engaging on that message does Brown and Tester no good in their red states.” ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Both parties are scrambling in Arizona over a proposed abortion-rights ballot initiative, “a model for how the issue is shaping competitive races nationwide,” our Alice Miranda Ollstein writes from Phoenix. Democrats believe it will “juice turnout on the left” up and down the ballot, while “some Arizona conservatives acknowledge that a referendum on abortion rights could dim their electoral chances, and are working to keep the issue off the November ballot.”
| | CASH CRUNCH — Inside Trump’s constellation of donors, “there is an acknowledgment that the campaign needs to begin building up its war chest — and quickly bring more backers on board,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw write. But donors “aren’t panicking,” saying that “they expect money will only make so much of a difference in an election rematch between two candidates who are already well known and well-defined.” THREE’S COMPANY — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been in talks with Libertarian Party Chair Angela McArdle to run on the Libertarian Party presidential ticket. “The party switch would ease his ballot access hurdles and buttress his campaign with an organized network of supporters,” our Brittany Gibson writes, and the campaign said it is “keeping all its options open.”
| | PRESIDENTIAL — Trump has a lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The former president has 50 percent of support, compared to Biden’s 42 percent (1,097 registered voters, March 13-18, MoE +/- 3.6 percentage points). But it’s much closer in Pennsylvania, where Trump and Biden each have 46 percent of support, per the CNN poll (1,132 registered voters, March 13-18, MoE +/- 3.8 percentage points).
| | OH-Sen — Brown is featuring law enforcement officials touting his work to “crack down on illegal drugs being smuggled across the border” — including legislation he sponsored that Trump signed. UT-Sen — Conservative Outsider PAC, a super PAC supporting Republican Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of late Sen. Orrin Hatch, is up with an ad contrasting the Senate candidate with Biden. The PAC has placed $1.8 million on advertising ahead of the June 25 primary. ND-Gov — Republican Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller is responding to an attack ad from Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong. “Fake news might work in D.C., but not here,” she says. IN-Gov — Indiana Innovation Council — a 501(c)(4) with ties to Republican former state commerce secretary Brad Chambers, as reported by the Indiana Capital Chronicle’s Whitney Downard — is hitting Chambers’ primary rival Sen. Mike Braun. The ad features a Tucker Carlson segment from 2020 saying that Braun supports the Black Lives Matter movement. WV-Gov — Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is up with a spot emphasizing the work he’s done in response to opioid overdoses. … Republican Chris Miller vows not to give lobbyists positions in his administration and advocates for term limits.
| | FIRST IN SCORE — The Center for American Progress, the liberal think tank, is out with a new report detailing how some blue-leaning states have passed state-level versions of the Voting Rights Act, after the landmark piece of federal legislation has slowly been chipped away in courts. So far, six states — California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington — have passed state laws that look to mirror or expand upon the federal law. “State VRAs can both help fill the holes left by the courts’ gutting of the federal Voting Rights Act and offer expanded protections not currently available under the federal law,” the report reads. “Even if federal legislation passes, state VRAs are still important, as they can provide state-specific protections and open an avenue for voters to protect their rights in state court.”
| | IN THE STATES — Republican Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte vastly outraised his likely Democratic challenger, Ryan Busse. Gianforte raised more than $1.2 million from Jan. 1 through March 15, compared to Busse’s close to $418,000.
| | — Meredith Sumpter is president and CEO of FairVote, the electoral reform group that advocates for ranked choice voting. Sumpter most recently was CEO and president of the board of the Council for Inclusive Capitalism and the Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “The people in Ohio, what they care about is when they go to McDonald’s, they can’t afford French fries.” — Republican Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno when CNN asked if he thinks Trump won the 2020 election. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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