| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Vladimir Putin’s saber-rattling remarks come ahead of this week’s Russian presidential election — a vote he’s all but guaranteed to win to secure his fifth term in office. | Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi, Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt| Email Eric Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s threat today that he’s “ready” for nuclear war with the West shouldn’t cause immediate concern, officials and experts told NatSec Daily. But it’s still very possible the Kremlin leader could drop nukes in the future, and Washington needs to be clear about the consequences that Moscow would face if he does so, MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, an exiled Russian oligarch and vocal Kremlin critic, told a small group of journalists today. “What is going to stop him? Only an unequivocal position, a firm position of his opponents that would show the risks if he uses nuclear weapons,” Khodorkovsky said in response to a question from NatSec Daily. “Attempts to persuade him that, ‘We will give you anything, just don't use nuclear weapons’ — that is not going to work.” Putin’s saber-rattling remarks come ahead of this week’s Russian presidential election — a vote he’s all but guaranteed to win to secure his fifth term in office, though he’s nonetheless facing a simmering opposition movement. There are two scenarios, Khodorkovsky explained, in which Putin would give the nuclear green light: If he loses the annexed territory of Crimea, and if he feels a nuke is needed to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield. Neither of those are likely to happen anytime soon, he said. Still, the U.S. must maintain a tough stance and promise that Russia will face severe consequences if he moves forward with using such weapons, Khodorkovsky added. He also noted China’s potential for persuasion, as Chinese leader XI JINPING personally warned Putin last year against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine — a recommendation that holds weight due to Moscow’s close ties with Beijing during the war. Putin’s rhetoric about using nuclear weapons “has been reckless and irresponsible” ever since he launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022, National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told NatSec Daily. But it doesn’t appear that the new threat symbolizes a change in stance from the Kremlin, a U.S. official told NatSec Daily: “We have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture,” and there haven’t been indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, said the official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. Still, the U.S. hasn’t completely ruled out that a catastrophic attack could happen — and is ready if it does. In October 2022, U.S. officials prepared rigorously for a nuclear assault after receiving information that Russia might pull the trigger, CNN and The New York Times reported over the weekend. The U.S. should continue to worry about nuclear threats in the Ukraine war, JAMES ACTON, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, told NatSec Daily. But “this particular threat, given the battlefield situation right now, is not a particular concern.” Khodorkovsky had a blunter analysis, suggesting a nuclear attack by Putin would lead to the end of his regime: “I don't think Putin is somebody who … wants to commit suicide,” he said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | POWER PUNCH: The head of the U.S. Agency for International Development asked Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU “to improve compliance with international humanitarian law” during her visit to Israel late last month, our own DANIEL PAYNE reports. SAMANTHA POWER revealed the details of her conversation with Netanyahu at POLITICO’s Health Care Summit today in Washington. “Even if Hamas doesn’t care about civilian life, and it’s proven that again and again, that doesn’t relieve the obligation of a combatant to observe those principles,” she said. “Clearly, more needs to be done.” ‘FLOODING THE ZONE’: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN this afternoon called on Israel to do more to allow humanitarian aid to reach Palestinians, especially via land crossings. “We need to see flooding the zone when it comes to humanitarian assistance for Gaza,” Blinken told reporters. He said the maritime corridor that will be set up by the U.S. and partners will take time to provide results. It can only complement, not substitute, the larger amount of aid that could be getting through on land, he added. Today, a coalition of 25 humanitarian and human rights organizations also said that delivering aid to Gaza via airdrops and the sea is no substitute for providing it from land. “While States have recently ramped up airdrops of aid in Gaza, humanitarian professionals stress that this method of aid delivery alone has in no way the capacity to meet the massive needs in the enclave,” the groups, including Amnesty International and Oxfam, wrote in a joint statement. Israel permitted a convoy of trucks carrying food to enter northern Gaza from Israel on Tuesday for the first time since the war began, according to the country’s military. This morning, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), who co-led a letter on Tuesday urging the U.S. to stop arming Israel, said the Biden administration still has options to pressure Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, calling airdrops “a drop in the bucket.” “We have to continue to use more levers of U.S. influence to insist that the Netanyahu government open the Erez Crossing in the north,” he said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event. Van Hollen also sharpened his criticism today of President JOE BIDEN’s comment that a Rafah invasion would be a “red line” for him: If Biden “draws a red line, the president needs to ensure that there's an enforcement mechanism, otherwise you look feckless,” Van Hollen said, adding that if Israel ignores Biden’s warning, “it just undermines our effectiveness." TALKING TO TEHRAN: U.S. officials tried to convince Tehran during secret talks to use its influence over Houthi rebels in Yemen to stop attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, Financial Times’ FELICIA SCHWARTZ and ANDREW ENGLAND report. “The indirect negotiations, during which Washington also raised concerns about Iran’s expanding nuclear programme, took place in Oman in January and were the first between the foes in 10 months," FT writes, citing U.S. and Iranian officials. White House Middle East adviser BRETT McGURK and Iran envoy ABRAM PALEY led the delegation, according to the outlet. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister ALI BAGHERI KANI, also Iran's top nuclear negotiator, was included in the talks. UKRAINE HITS OIL: Ukrainian drones launched a second consecutive day of heavy attacks on Russian oil refineries, jolting global oil prices, according to Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and LIDIA KELLY. The attacks, concentrated on the Rostov and Ryazan regions, produced no casualties, but did result in several refineries and facilities briefly halting operations as crews worked to put out fires. Oil prices climbed 2 percent this morning in response to the attacks and their potential disruption to global energy supplies. Putin has claimed that the drone attacks are part of an effort by Kyiv to disrupt his country’s presidential election. MONEY FOR KYIV: Months of deadlock over reimbursing European Union countries for military aid to Ukraine was broken today after ambassadors agreed to back a new $5.5 billion fund, our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI reports. The deal creates the Ukraine Assistance Fund — part of the EU's off-budget European Peace Facility that is used to partially reimburse member countries for the weapons they provide to Ukraine. The agreement brings the fund to nearly $19 billion, of which $12 billion is allocated to Ukraine with the rest going to other regions like Africa. So far, the EPF has paid out almost $7 billion for Ukraine aid. "We made it," the EU's top diplomat JOSEP BORRELL tweeted. "The message is clear: we will support Ukraine with whatever it takes to prevail." IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | HOUSE PASSES TIKTOK BILL: The House passed its bill today forcing TikTok’s Chinese owner to sell the app or face a ban on app stores in the United States, according to our own REBECCA KERN. The bill was backed by a wide bipartisan coalition, with 352 members voting in favor and only 65 voting against. The bipartisan push to pass the bill surprised ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, which put together a last-ditch effort to thwart the bill, according to the Wall Street Journal’s STU WOO, GEORGIA WELLS and RAFFAELE HUANG. The bill’s opponents included conservatives like Reps. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), who expressed concerns that the bill would amount to unlawful censorship. It also included progressives like Reps. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) and ROBERT GARCIA (D-Calif.), who say Congress should pass privacy legislation covering all social media sites, not just TikTok. From TikTok’s perspective, the House battle may be lost, but the war to save the app continues. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) did not commit to bringing the bill to a vote when asked about it at a leadership press conference Tuesday, and senators on both sides of the aisle have voiced concerns that the bill may be unconstitutional.
| | BOOM BOOM POW: A small solid-fuel rocket made by Japan's Space One exploded today as the company attempted to become the first in the country to put a satellite into orbit, Reuters’ KANTARO KOMIYA reports. The 59-foot Kairos rocket went boom only five seconds after liftoff, leaving behind a large cloud of smoke, fire and fragments of the vessel: "The rocket terminated the flight after judging that the achievement of its mission would be difficult," said Space One’s President MASAKAZU TOYODA. The company pledged to investigate what went wrong. It’s a setback for both Space One and Japan’s broader space industry, as the country ramps up its space program amid national security concerns and a high demand for commercial satellites. MARINES AT U.S. EMBASSY IN HAITI: U.S. Southern Command today dispatched a team of Marines to the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince, according to our own LARA SELIGMAN. The team, sent at the request of the State Department, follows the decision to evacuate the embassy and reduce operations amid the uptick in violence. Read: Former national security, defense officials push for ratification of U.N. convention to boost deep-sea mining by our own JORDAN WOLMAN and JAMES BIKALES
| | | | JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | DEMS UP HAITI AID PRESSURE: House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) urged House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON today to release millions of dollars being blocked by top Republicans for the multinational security support mission to Haiti. “It is not in America’s national security interests to hold up the transfer of funds that support security stabilization in Haiti, particularly given the present crisis on the ground,” Jeffries wrote in a letter to Johnson. As we reported yesterday, Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, are holding up $40 million in funding for the Kenyan-led multinational security support mission. The blockade comes as armed gangs have increased their control of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, threatening to topple the country’s embattled central government. Other Democrats warned that further delay could exacerbate a worsening migration crisis. “Every day that we're delaying, this is every day that people are living and thinking that they might not survive the next day,” Rep. SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fla.), co-chair of the Congressional Haiti Caucus, told Eric. “We don't want Haitian people to feel so desperate that they hit the waterways, which we've seen before in other crises.” “The number one thing that the administration and Congress can do is make sure we provide the funding right now and restore civility,” she continued. Republicans, for their part, acknowledge the migration concerns. But they are defending the hold, arguing that additional review is needed to ensure the funding is adequately accounted for and won’t backfire on the U.S. and Haitian government efforts to thwart the gangs. Outside the Capitol today, McCaul said his “biggest concern is we want assurances — we don’t throw a bunch of money and weapons into Haiti that’s gonna go to the warlords.” Rep. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.), who chairs the House Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, added that the extra review was “responsible.” “McCaul wants to know where’s that going to go,” she told Eric today. “It’s money going out, the taxpayers’ money. We need to give some type of accountability to the taxpayers.” Read: Florida braces for surge in Haitian migrants by our own KIMBERLY LEONARD
| | | |   | | | | | MAKING AMENDS ON UKRAINE: French President EMMANUEL MACRON will travel to Berlin on Friday to meet German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ in an effort to reduce tensions over Ukraine that have spilled into the open in recent weeks, top German and French officials told our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD, GORDON REPINSKI and CLEA CAULCUTT. Polish Prime Minister DONALD TUSK will join the French and German leaders later in the day, according to a German official, marking the first meeting of the “Weimar Triangle” — a dialogue format between the three countries — since Tusk became prime minister of Poland again in December. Long-simmering tensions began to boil over in late February when Macron refused to rule out sending Western troops to fight in Ukraine, vowing to do “whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” A more cautious Scholz shot back, ruling out the use of ground troops from European countries. Read: Germany’s Scholz says sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine is ‘out of the question’ by our own JOSHUA POSANER
| | — DIANA SHAW will leave her role as the State Department’s acting inspector general on April 5 for a job in the private sector. CARDELL RICHARDSON’s nomination to take over the role full-time has cleared the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Homeland Security as well as Governmental Affairs Committee. It awaits a vote by the full Senate. — ELIZABETH LOPEZ-SANDOVAL is now deputy director of public affairs for the Transportation Department. She previously oversaw USAID’s press response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | — YULIA NAVALNAYA, The Washington Post: Putin isn’t a politician, he’s a gangster — PATRICIA COHEN, The New York Times: Malaysia rises as crucial link in chip supply chain — MICHAEL KIMMAGE and MARIA LIPMAN, Foreign Affairs: Forever Putinism
| | — Potomac Officers Club, 8 a.m.: Achieving transformative cooperation for national defense forum — German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: A discussion on recent NATO developments, Latvian-U.S. security cooperation and 20 years of Latvian membership in the alliance with Defense Minister ANDRIS SPRŪDS — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: A hearing on "Posture of United States Northern Command and United States Southern Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency perspective on artificial intelligence autonomy at the DOD — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11 a.m.: Navigating turmoil: the dynamics of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in 2024 — Government Executive Media Group, 11 a.m.: A virtual discussion on the state of the Marines with Commandant ERIC SMITH — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: The future of U.S.-Israel relations — Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: Taiwan's urgent need for asymmetric defense — RAND Corporation, 3 p.m.: Climate change and conflict: implications for U.S. Central Command — Atlantic Council, 4:30 p.m.: Reinforcing the transatlantic alliance through climate and energy cooperation — Women's Foreign Policy Group, 5 p.m.: Voices of bravery: women war correspondents Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who never takes our threats seriously. We also thank our producer, Gigi Ewing, who joins us in our firm opposition to Emma. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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