Monday, February 26, 2024

Newsom’s recall redux

Presented by Californians for Energy Independence: Inside the Golden State political arena
Feb 26, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Presented by Californians for Energy Independence

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 07: California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a "Vote No" get out the vote tour  campaign stop at Mission Language and Vocational School on September 07, 2021 in San Francisco, California. With seven days to go until the California recall election, California Gov. Gavin Newsom continues to campaign throughout the state.   U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will be joining Gov. Newsom at a campaign event in the San Francisco Bay Area on Wednesday. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a rally during his 2021 anti-recall campaign. | Getty Images

THE BUZZ: GROUNDHOG DAY — It’s recall season in California once again as conservative activists look to put Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom back on the defensive.

Critics of the governor announced today that they are launching another recall attempt against him, hoping to capitalize on voters’ frustrations with the state’s significant budget deficit and to snuff Newsom’s political star before he can run for president.

As our colleague Christopher Cadelago scooped this morning, recall organizers plan to formally serve Newsom with recall papers when his office opens today, the first step in what’s likely a long road to try to qualify for the ballot.

The news comes less than 24 hours after Newsom announced that his PAC will wage another red-state advertising blitz over abortion and unveiled a TV ad accusing conservative officials of holding women hostage by imposing restrictions on their travel for reproductive care.

Newsom handily defeated the last recall election against him in 2021, though the election was costly and sucked up the oxygen in Sacramento for months.

The new effort is led by Rescue California and its campaign director Anne Dunsmore, who was involved last time. Retired Yolo County sheriff’s sergeant and conservative activist Orrin Heatlie also is part of the conservative coalition.

Newsom has faced at least five other recall attempts, but none prior to 2021 came close to making the ballot.

The recall déjà vu comes as Republicans seek to counter Newsom’s effectiveness as a top Democratic surrogate for the reelection campaign of President Joe Biden. Dunsmore said Newsom has “abandoned the state to advance his presidential ambitions.” She said “blowing up” Newom’s national efforts for Democrats is an added benefit, though not their chief motive.

Newom has become a fixture on the national stage. His new ad, which he debuted Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and shared with POLITICO, shows a young woman handcuffed to a hospital bed as she cries out “help, help!”

The ad will air in Tennessee and is aimed at calling out proposed legislation that makes it a felony offense to help an underage woman obtain an out-of-state abortion without parental permission. “Don’t let them hold Tennessee women hostage,” the ad’s narrator says.

Newsom has increasingly gone on the offensive in red states, including running abortion-related TV spots and billboards in states like Florida, Texas and Ohio.

The ad blitz has come as Newsom seeks to build his national political profile as one of Democrats’ top offensive players. He’s framed his national outreach as necessary pushback to what he calls a MAGA-led assault on basic freedoms, citing Republican efforts to outlaw abortion, contraception, ban books in schools and curtail rights for LGBTQ people.

“We’ve defined the lines of this debate,” Newsom told “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker. “We’ve been on the offense, not on the defense. The Republican Party is on the defense on this issue.”

The recall attempt has a ways to go, and Newsom could parlay it for some quick cash. But it could put him more on the defensive in his home state, where his approval rating in some public polls has begun to show signs of sagging in recent months due, in large part, to voter frustration over persistent problems in the state as he burnishes his profile. In fact, one poll from November directly linked his outside California activity to his shrinking approval rating.

Nathan Click, a spokesperson for Newsom, suggested the governor isn’t taking the challenge lightly. He said the governor is being targeted because he’s a surrogate for Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Republicans, if nothing else, will likely savor the chance to distract and even lock down one of Democrats’ top guns.

MORE HIGHLIGHTS from Newsom’s “MTP” interview:

On chatter about him running for president in 2024 instead of Biden: “It's a damning conversation, frankly, the other side wants us to have … I'm deeply mindful of the anger machine and all the entertainment industry out there on Fox and elsewhere that love ginning this stuff up.”

On concerts about Biden’s age and mental acuity: “I’ve seen him up close, I’ve seen him from afar, but here’s my point: It’s because of his age that he’s been so successful. It’s because of the wisdom and character that’s developed over years.” More here.

On Democrats’ odds in the November election: “We continue to win. We continue to outperform. Donald Trump is a big part of that and he’s going to be the nominee of the Republican Party.”

On Trump and House Republicans killing a border deal: “The Republican Party is responsible today, now, for the conditions that persist because of their unwillingness to work with this president who went farther than any Democratic president in my lifetime.”

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Back in California after a busy week in Washington.

 

A message from Californians for Energy Independence:

As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues. But instead, California energy policies are shutting down in-state oil production faster than we can build adequate replacement energy - increasing our dependence on more costly imported oil. Get the facts on California Energy Policies

 
THE SCOOP

Susan Eggman is pictured. | AP Photo

State Sen. Susan Eggman, center. | AP Photo

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: EGGMAN’S NEXT STEP — State Sen. Susan Eggman told Playbook that she’s seriously exploring a run for state treasurer in 2026 to ensure California follows through on its ambitious plans to expand the mental-health treatment system.

Eggman, a former social worker, said it will be crucial for the next treasurer to get funding out the door quickly to build more treatment facilities and housing units for the homeless. As a legislator, she has worked closely with Newsom to revamp how the state mandates treatment for people with chronic mental illnesses and addictions.

“Finances are wonky, except that they have a direct impact on people’s lives,” Eggman said in an exclusive interview. “The whole point is to make sure that the programs are able to make the impact that they were intended to make.”

Eggman had previously opened a fundraising committee to run for lieutenant governor, but recently transferred her $103,000 warchest to a new committee for treasurer.

The race could be crowded. Former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf announced her candidacy last month. Other possible contenders have opened fundraising committees, though they haven’t made their intentions clear. Among them: former Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon and Assemblymember Phil Ting.

 

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CAMPAIGN YEAR

Rudy Salas asks questions during a hearing.

Rudy Salas, a Democratic congressional candidate and former state lawmaker. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

FULL SPEED AHEAD — The Democratic establishment is pulling out all the stops to ensure former Assemblymember Rudy Salas makes it into the top two in the race for incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley seat.

As Lara and our colleague Jessica Piper report, Democrats in Washington have funneled more than $100,000 to Salas to avoid getting locked out of one of their best pickup opportunities in the nation.

The institutional giving underscores the national party’s unusually early involvement in the race — choosing to boost Salas over Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, even as it sits out other competitive primaries.

A POLITICO analysis of campaign filings show Salas has received $15,000 from 10 members of Congress, including some familiar names — Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi as well as House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. He also received $40,000 from major Democratic PACs, including California Leadership United For Victory, which is associated with Aguilar.

In addition to members and leadership PACs, Aguilar’s CA House Majority Fund PAC has helped Salas raise nearly $50,000 this primary season.

SELLING THE FARM — Rep. Katie Porter is making a ‘Hail Mary’ fundraising move to pump cash into her campaign for Senate, holding a fire sale for her coveted private database of donor emails and phone numbers.

As our colleague Chris reports, it's a highly-unusual and risky gambit for a politician to sell their fundraising list during a primary. The move speaks to the desperate moment Porter faces as she tries to eke out a second-place finish in the March 5 primary, so she can advance to the general election in November.

Democratic frontrunner Rep. Adam Schiff has more than twice as much cash on hand. He’s also spending heavily to boost Republican and former baseball star Steve Garvey, a shrewd move that could effectively ensure Schiff locks down the safe-blue seat in the primary. Recent polls suggest Porter and Schiff remain locked in a dead heat for the second spot.

 

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CASH DASH

Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and former baseball player Steve Garvey.

Senate candidates, from left, Rep. Barbara Lee, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Katie Porter and former baseball player Steve Garvey. | Damian Dovarganes/AP

FEC FILINGS DIVE — Thursday’s FEC campaign finance reports gave us our final glimpse into candidates’ raising and spending operations before the March 5 primaries. We told you about several of California’s most heated fights for the Senate and the House last week, but here are some other big money storylines:

Adam Schiff’s campaign is reaching near-presidential levels of spending. He has dropped more than $22.3 million on advertising of all forms — including TV, digital and print — in roughly six weeks. Overall, ad spending accounted for about 85 percent of his total $24.8 million in spending, a massive amount of money overall.

Schiff spent $21 million in January alone, including about $19.1 million on advertising-related expenses. By comparison: The campaigns of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump spent far less combined on TV advertising last month, according to campaign finance reports filed earlier this week. The two leading presidential contenders spent $6.6 million on advertising expenses, though that excludes any digital spending that ran through other affiliated groups.

Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.).

Democratic Rep. Josh Harder. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

— Some California challengers are in the red. A handful of swing districts here could decide control of the U.S. House. But many challengers in those key races are not exactly flush with cash for the general election.

In CA-9, Republican Kevin Lincoln, the mayor of Stockton, seems likely to advance to the general election to face Democratic Rep. Josh Harder. But Lincoln raised just $44,000 over the first six weeks of the year while spending $115,000. He had $224,000 cash in the bank as of Feb. 14, compared to nearly $2.8 million for Harder.

Over in the 49th District, where the NRCC is targeting Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, GOP candidates Margarita Wilkinson and Matt Gunderson spent around $1 million and $750,000 respectively over the month and a half of 2024 while taking in relatively few contributions.

Two other Republicans, Marine veteran Kate Monroe and auto executive Sheryl Adams, also have a shot of making it through the top-two primary, but they would need to substantially up their fundraising after bringing in just over $30,000 and $6,000, respectively, in the six-week period.

George Whitesides pulls ahead. The Democratic businessman challenging Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in CA-27 has previously had no problem donating hundreds of thousands of his own dollars to his campaign, but this latest round of filings, which encompassed the first six weeks of 2024, shows he raised over $575,000 from donors alone. That’s more than double the $216,000 Garcia raised in the same period.

Heading into the primary, Whitesides now has $2.5 million cash on hand, while Garcia has $1 million.

— with help from Zach Montellaro, Madison Fernandez and Jessica Piper.

 

Don’t sleep on it. Get breaking New York policy from POLITICO Pro—the platform that never sleeps—and use our Legislative Tracker to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.

 
 
ON THE AGENDA

— Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire this morning is expected to announce legislation to combat fentanyl and retail crime.

— State Attorney General Rob Bonta is in LA for a 10 a.m. press conference with labor leaders regarding “important action to protect Californians.”

— The Assembly will convene at 1 p.m.; and the state Senate convenes at 2 p.m.

TOP TALKERS

— Los Angeles school board candidate Graciela Ortiz has been removed from her job as an L.A. Unified counseling administrator after a civil lawsuit was filed alleging Ortiz and a political ally are liable for the actions of a campaign worker, who pleaded no contest to sexual misconduct with an underage volunteer. (Los Angeles Times)

— California Rep. Adam Schiff has used his perch as a hero of the MAGA resistance to implore advertisers to boycott Fox News. Now, Schiff is violating his own entreaty. On Saturday, the Burbank Democrat began running TV ads on Fox. (POLITICO)

— San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s ballot measure to boost office conversions could backfire, city analysts say. (San Francisco Chronicle)

 

A message from Californians for Energy Independence:

California faces a $68 billion deficit, a rising cost of living, and has some of the highest gas prices in the country. Now, California energy policies could make matters worse.

That’s because California is shutting down in-state oil and gas production before we have adequate replacement power. That forces our state to spend $25 billion a year importing more costly oil to meet our needs - sending billions that could be supporting California’s economy out of state instead. These energy policies threaten California’s access to reliable energy, while increasing our gas and utility prices.

As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues - rather than increase our dependence on more costly imported oil.

Get the facts on California Energy Policies

 
PLAYBOOKERS

BIRTHDAYS — Li Zhou … (was Saturday): Terry Semel ... Jan Koum ... Kevin Lewis Bruce Andrews Owen Gleiberman … Amazon’s Lindsay Hamilton … (was Friday): Frank Luntz Michael Benaroya

MEA CULPA — Friday’s Playbook misstated a result from the latest PPIC poll. It found Democratic Rep. Katie Porter one point ahead of Republican Steve Garvey for second place in the Senate race.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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