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Friday, January 5, 2024
This Surprising Sector Beat Tech Last Month
Tech stocks soared last year... The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose more than 50%. And it closed 2023 at a new all-time high.
This Surprising Sector Beat Tech Last Month
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Tech stocks soared last year...
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose more than 50%. And it closed 2023 at a new all-time high.
All signs point to another strong year for tech, too. It's still one of the top sectors in the Power Gauge.
But over the past month, a surprising sector has fared even better. This sector has more than doubled the performance of tech stocks over that span.
It's currently the top sector in the Power Gauge. And it holds a "bullish" rating.
Unlike tech, this sector didn't rip higher overall in 2023. In fact, it only moved up about 10% on the year. That's less than half of the S&P 500 Index's massive 24% gain.
But with such a big move higher recently, we want to be paying attention to this sector.
So today, let's take a closer look...
We'll turn to the Power Gauge to see if this is an early sign of a rotation into this sector. And we'll see if it looks like an opportunity to get ahead of an even bigger move higher...
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I'm talking about financials.
In the Power Gauge, we measure this space using the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). Throughout 2022 and most of 2023, financial stocks struggled. Take a look...
XLF tumbled 27% to its low in October 2022 before clawing back some gains by the end of the year. Then, it languished mostly sideways as the broad market ripped higher in 2023.
But at the end of this past October, its momentum shifted. Now, as you can see in the next chart, XLF has broken past the resistance level it struggled against back in February...
Better still, financial stocks have outperformed tech stocks over the past month...
Since early December, XLF is up about 4%. Meanwhile, the tech sector – as measured by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) – is up less than 2%.
Financial stocks have more than doubled tech stocks' performance over the past month.
Turning to the Power Gauge, financial stocks look strong...
As I mentioned earlier, XLF is currently the top sector in terms of its Power Bar rating. And as you can see in the screenshot below, our system is "bullish" on XLF today...
XLF currently holds 45 "bullish" or better stocks. And perhaps more importantly, it doesn't have any "bearish" or worse holdings. That's a great sign for the financial sector.
It means big banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are emerging from last year's slowdown. Credit-processing giant Visa (V) is looking up, too.
But as you've likely noticed, the first few days of the new year are off to a bumpy start...
The broad market has moved lower over the past few days. And it's possible that this blip of outperformance in the financial sector boils down to just a few bad days in tech.
So... where does that leave us?
We can't deny the power of the tech sector right now. It dominates the market.
But financials had an unusually tough year in 2023. And the sector's underperformance compared with the S&P 500 means it has some catching up to do.
We might be seeing the start of that now. And surprisingly, lower interest rates could help...
That's because lower rates will lead to more lending.
Put simply, many businesses and consumers hit the "pause" button when interest rates soared. But in the year ahead, we'll likely see lower rates across the board.
In turn, businesses will pivot to tactical projects. And we're already seeing the beginnings of that unfold...
On Tuesday, major corporations raised more than $29 billion with new bond issuances. They're taking advantage of investors expecting lower rates. And at the same time, they're preparing capital for the coming year.
The financial system is starting to unclench. So it makes sense that the Power Gauge sees an opportunity.
I'll be watching this sector closely. And I recommend you do the same.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.110%
11
18
1
S&P 500
-0.310%
143
300
55
Nasdaq
-0.520%
36
51
12
Small Caps
-0.170%
714
908
297
Bonds
-1.520%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Health Care
+2.20%
Utilities
+1.36%
Energy
+0.75%
Staples
+0.46%
Financial
-0.37%
Communication
-1.86%
Materials
-1.96%
Industrials
-2.48%
Real Estate
-2.79%
Discretionary
-4.21%
Information Technology
-4.65%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Aerospace & Defense Services
7
20
5
Over the past 6 months, the Aerospace & Defense subsector (XAR) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +1.89%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
MOG.A
Moog Inc.
HII
Huntington Ingalls I
TXT
Textron Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
CCL
+3.06%
EPAM
+2.68%
PODD
+2.65%
DG
+2.65%
RVTY
+2.57%
Losers
APA
-7.35%
WBA
-5.12%
ON
-3.92%
NXPI
-3.85%
ENPH
-3.72%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
AYI
MSM
STZ
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.
Q1
$0.66
Beat by $0.04
LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Q2
$1.45
Beat by $0.03
CAG Conagra Brands, Inc.
Q2
$0.71
Beat by $0.03
* * * *
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