| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | TALKER — “The Unpredictable But Entirely Possible Events That Could Throw 2024 Into Turmoil,” in which POLITICO Magazine brings together a collection of “futurists, political analysts and other prognosticators” to write about the possible “Black Swan” moments that could disrupt the presidential election.
|  Joe Biden speaks about Bidenomics at CS Wind on Nov. 29, 2023 in Pueblo, Colorado. | Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images | BIDEN SETS THE STAKES — One way to think about the last three years of American politics is as an ongoing effort to hold DONALD TRUMP accountable for his actions on Jan. 6, 2021. It started as a bipartisan effort that treated Trump as a pariah, but then it quickly polarized into just another red-blue issue, one that rehabilitated Trump among Republicans while generally benefitting Democrats electorally. Ever since, the accountability effort has pingponged through different branches of government, the states, and other legal and political institutions. First up was Congress with Trump’s post-riot impeachment, which was ultimately rejected by Republican senators, including Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who argued that there were better ways in other parts of the government to seek accountability. Next was the House Jan. 6 committee, which had no power over Trump but served as a catalyst for the next two forums of accountability: the 2022 midterms, where Republican candidates who supported election subversion were generally defeated, and the Justice Department, which indicted Trump. Then came the GOP presidential primaries, the Republican Party’s internal system of candidate accountability. By then Jan. 6 had so fully matured into a partisan issue that trying to use it against Trump strengthened him and damaged the attacker. Trump will spend the anniversary on Saturday at two rallies in Iowa. As the AP reminds, Trump “has called it ‘a beautiful day’ and described those imprisoned for the insurrection as ‘great, great patriots’ and ‘hostages.’ At some campaign rallies, he has played a recording of ‘The Star-Spangled Banner’ sung by jailed rioters — the anthem interspersed with his recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance.” The Jan. 6 accountability project will dominate 2024, as the issue is taken up by the states deciding whether Trump is an insurrectionist and should be allowed on the ballot, juries in Georgia and Washington, D.C., deciding two criminal cases, and the Supreme Court which seems poised to decide three major issues related to these efforts. But all of these efforts — the GOP primaries, the 14th Amendment movement, the JACK SMITH and FANI WILLIS indictments — might sputter out, just as impeachment did three years ago. That would leave President JOE BIDEN and his reelection campaign as the last tool of accountability. So it is no surprise that Biden is kicking off the 2024 election today with a speech reminding voters of Jan. 6 and alerting them to the threat he believes Trump poses — one he prepped for by meeting with a group of historians at the White House. “Using the anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection to frame the stakes of the 2024 campaign, the president will draw upon the history of the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, setting Friday to argue that his likely rematch with Donald Trump will be a seismic test of the republic’s foundation,” Jonathan Lemire writes this morning, citing senior Biden advisers who offered a preview of the speech. “‘Democracy is not a sideline issue: It is a sacred cause,’ said one of the advisers, granted anonymity as part of the ground rules during a call with reporters. ‘When major events occur, people render the judgments in national elections. Voters won’t forget Jan. 6.’” The content of the speech will be studied carefully by Democratic strategists who are in the middle of the same electoral debate they had in 2022: Should the party emphasize Jan. 6 and the threat to democratic norms, or should it focus on traditional policy issues? There was a cottage industry of pundits ahead of the midterms who argued Biden was making a mistake by emphasizing the former, which was allegedly not as important to voters, at the expense of the latter. But post-election analysis suggested that Democrats prevailed in places where they convinced voters to take “the MAGA threat” seriously, and suffered in places where that message didn’t break through. It’s not a strict binary choice, of course, but a question of emphasis. Biden will use the MAGA and Jan. 6 as an umbrella threat that affects numerous policies. As Lemire writes, “Biden will extend the concept of freedom to other issue areas during his remarks on Friday, aides said. That includes access to vote, abortion rights and economic fairness.” Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: Annuities deliver financial certainty like traditional pensions of old.
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A Department of Labor proposal would shut down access to options for middle-income savers. It’s out of step with bipartisan support in Congress to expand access to guaranteed lifetime income. Stand with us. Protect retirement for all. | | | JUST POSTED — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) pens an op-ed, “What January 6 Made Clear to Me,” for The Atlantic: “The threat to our democracy is real, present, and urgent.” TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest column: “The Fight Over Claudine Gay Was Not Really A Right-Versus-Left Battle” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — NIKKI HALEY is going up with a new ad in New Hampshire featuring DON BOLDUC, the former Army general and failed 2020 and 2022 GOP Senate candidate in the state, who embraced Trump in his second run. “Look, I’m MAGA all the way. I’ve always been America First. But this time, I’m for Nikki Haley for president. She’s tough on the border, tough on China. She’s got real plans,” Bolduc says in the ad. “With Trump, there’s too many distractions. There’s too much risk of losing. Nikki’s a strong conservative. She’ll take Joe Biden to the cleaners, and she’ll make our country proud.” Watch the 30-second spot MEANWHILE, IN IOWA — Haley and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS participated in dueling town halls on CNN, just a week before the two will face off in a CNN-sponsored debate ahead of the Iowa caucuses. While neither candidate made much news, they held back most of their barbs for each other and spent a lot of energy going after Trump.
|  Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop, Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo | In perhaps the most interesting moment of her session, Haley addressed her comments about the cause of the Civil War, which she said at a campaign stop was about “basically how government was going to run.” Last night, Haley said: “If you grow up in South Carolina, literally in second and third grade you learn about slavery. You grow up and you have — you know, I had Black friends growing up. It is a very talked-about thing,” Haley said. Trying to own up for the comment, Haley said: “I shouldn't have done that. I should have said slavery. But in my mind, that’s a given, that everybody associates the Civil War with slavery.” As for Trump, Haley called her former boss “the right president at the right time,” but added that “the reality is rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him and we all know that's true. … And we can’t have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. We won’t survive it.”
|  Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a campaign event, Jan. 3, 2024, in Waukee, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP | “Among DeSantis’ most aggressive attacks on Trump were on the former president’s abortion record. At one point he answered, ‘Of course not’ when moderator Kaitlin Collins asked him whether he considered Trump to be ‘pro-life,’” Kimberly Leonard writes. “If you’ve run before, promised things, didn’t deliver, and then you’re running on the same things, wouldn’t it be reasonable to say, ‘Gee, I don’t know that I can take that to the bank going forward?’” DeSantis said of the former president’s comeback attempt. “Yes, I think the fact that he’s campaigning on something, that does not mean that he would actually follow through on it.” In DeSantis’ brief focus on Haley, he accused the former South Carolina governor of running “on her donors’ issues.” He also started out by handing Collins a basketball jersey of Iowa Hawkeyes superstar CAITLIN CLARK, whose name Haley recently mixed up with Collins’. More from CNN … Top takeaways from Kimberly and Lisa Kashinsky PLAYBOOK DEEP DIVE: ALL YOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT 2024 — With election year here and the Iowa caucuses just days away, questions abound. Is there a chance Trump could stumble in Iowa or New Hampshire? What exactly happened to the DeSantis campaign? Why is it that everyone underestimated Haley? Would Trump have been weaker in the primary if the justice system never came after him? Why didn’t anybody with real political heft challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination? Just how seriously should we take third-party candidates this time? And could it be that the two most important people affecting the 2024 election are BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and JOHN ROBERTS? On today’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive, Ryan discusses all that and more with Jonathan Martin, POLITICO’s politics bureau chief, in a wide-ranging, deep and hilarious conversation. Listen now on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Everyone should be able to achieve retirement security. A Department of Labor proposal would limit access to guaranteed lifetime income. Protect retirement for all. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … We’re closing out the week with another salvo in the border wars: As House Republicans visited South Texas yesterday to highlight the flood of migrants rushing to the U.S.-Mexico border, the Biden administration accused the GOP of voting to cut border agents and slow-walking its recent funding requests. Now RAJ SHAH, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s comms director, is firing back in a new memo, accusing the White House of “Using Phony Numbers” and calling the administration’s latest funding request “More Smoke & Mirrors.” Read the memo At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning before departing for New Castle, Delaware. In the afternoon, Biden will travel to Philadelphia for a campaign event with first lady JILL BIDEN. They will return to New Castle in the evening. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.
| | | | GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Donald Trump speaks at a commit to caucus campaign event at the Whiskey River bar on Dec. 2, 2023 in Ankeny, Iowa. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | TRUMP’S HIGH EXPECTATIONS — In the homestretch before the Iowa caucuses, there is a clear expectation that Trump will win, but the margin is becoming the focal point with just days to go. “Having largely eschewed the nuts and bolts of campaigning during his first two runs for the White House, he is leaving nothing to chance this go around,” David Siders writes. “But Trump and his aides also face a unique problem, one that is now falling plainly into view.” “Expectations for a romp are sky high and Trump himself has set them there. On the cusp of the Iowa caucuses and, shortly after, the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, Haley doesn’t have to beat Trump in either state to wound him. She can inflict damage simply by beating his high bar.” More top reads:
- To no one’s surprise, Trump has become “obsessed over his scorecard of endorsers,” NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman, which only grew larger this week. “He calls endorsements the ‘E word’; when lawmakers merely say they ‘support’ him, he considers it insufficient and calls that the ‘S word.’ In recent weeks, his allies have told lawmakers that Mr. Trump will be closely watching who has and hasn’t endorsed him before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.”
- BARACK OBAMA is a boon for the Biden campaign. The former president is again appearing with the current president in a fundraising video, another installment in Obama’s involvement, which is “accounting for more than $4 million in grassroots fundraising overall so far,” NBC’s Mike Memoli reports. “According to the campaign, a contest for donors to win a chance to ‘Meet the Presidents’ raised $2.6 million for the re-election effort, its most lucrative contest so far.”
- Trump’s dominance over DeSantis in the governor’s home state shows no signs of stopping: “Miami-Dade County Republicans overwhelmingly chose Trump over DeSantis to be their presidential nominee in a straw poll the party’s executive committee held this week,” Kimberly Leonard reports from Miami. The breakdown: “Of 65 party members who met in Miami Wednesday night, 53 votes went for Trump. Only five voted for DeSantis.”
MORE POLITICS
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People hold placards as they protest against Florida's 15-week abortion ban in Miami. | Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images | ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — The groups seeking to place a constitutional amendment on Florida’s 2024 ballot protecting abortion rights are on the cusp of securing enough valid signatures. But there’s still a long road ahead, Arek Sarkissian reports from Tallahassee, Florida. “If successful, voters in the country’s third most populous state could undo Florida’s abortion bans, keeping access open to thousands of patients throughout the south who travel to Florida from neighboring states — and from as far away as Texas — to avoid more restrictive prohibitions. “It would also deliver a blow to Florida Republicans, who have tightened controls over abortion under Gov. Ron DeSantis and made it harder for groups to successfully use ballot initiatives to amend the state Constitution. The GOP is so concerned about the threat that Republican state Attorney General ASHLEY MOODY is mounting an aggressive effort to block the measure in the state high court.”
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Americans deserve financial guidance. Learn how a DOL proposal would shut down access. | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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The amphibious dock landing ship USS Carter Hall and amphibious assault ship USS Bataan transit the Bab al-Mandeb strait on Aug. 9, 2023. | Mass Communications Spc. 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/U.S. Navy via AP | THE MUDDY MIDDLE EAST PICTURE — Biden administration officials are increasingly worried that the war in Gaza will spark a wider protracted regional conflict and are beginning to draw up potential scenarios for more direct U.S. involvement, Erin Banco, Lara Seligman and Alexander Ward report. “The military is drafting plans to hit back at Iran-backed Houthi militants who have been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, according to three U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. That includes striking Houthi targets in Yemen, according to one of the officials, an option the military has previously presented. Intelligence officials, meanwhile, are coming up with ways to anticipate and fend off possible attacks on the U.S. by Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria, according to one of the officials.” The developments will be viewed not only through the lens of regional security, but also with an eye on the 2024 presidential race back home. Biden, our colleagues note, entered office with vows to end wars and now ends his first term as the West’s champion for the defense of Ukraine and key enabler of Israel’s retaliation against Hamas. More top reads:
- Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is embarking on another trip to the Middle East this weekend — his fourth in three months — for a visit that is expected to “focus largely on easing resurgent fears that the Israel-Hamas war could erupt into a broader conflict,” AP’s Matthew Lee writes.
- A Houthi sea drone “got within a ‘couple of miles’ of U.S. Navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea before detonating on Thursday, just hours after the White House and a host of partner nations issued a final warning to the Iran-backed militia group to cease the attacks or face potential military action,” AP’s Tara Copp reports.
- “Russia has used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and is seeking Iranian missiles, U.S. says,” by AP’s Colleen Long and Aamer Madhani
THE WHITE HOUSE BIDEN’S BORDER BOTHER — As Biden pivots to big themes of democracy with the 2024 race snapping into sharp focus, he is still feeling the crunch on immigration, with calls to address the stream of migrants at the border coming from all over, NYT’s Michael Shear and Miriam Jordan report. “What used to be a clear-cut, ideological fight between Democrats and Republicans has become a bipartisan demand for action, and some of the most intense pressure on Mr. Biden is coming from places like Boston, Denver, Chicago and New York, where leaders in the president’s own party are issuing cries for help.” The outcry has also “increased the likelihood that Mr. Biden and Democratic lawmakers will approve immigration concessions to Republicans that would have seemed improbable just a few years ago.” CONGRESS ON THE WAY OUT — Rep. BLAINE LUETKEMEYER (R-Mo.) will retire from Congress at the end of his term this year, becoming the latest member to head for the exits in a volatile election year. “Luetkemeyer had been a frontrunner in the race to replace retiring House Financial Services Chair PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.) as the top Republican on the committee. His departure now clears the way for other contenders like Reps. FRENCH HILL (R-Ark.), ANDY BARR (R-Ky.) and BILL HUIZENGA (R-Mich.),” our colleague Eleanor Mueller reports. BEYOND THE BELTWAY TROUBLING TREND — “State government buildings face bomb threats for second consecutive day,” by NBC’s Adam Edelman: “In Mississippi, ‘multiple bomb threats at various locations across the state’ prompted officials to take “precautionary measures” and put in place ‘standard emergency procedures,’ the state’s Department of Public Safety wrote on X. … In Arkansas, the Pulaski County Courthouse in Little Rock was also forced to evacuate after a bomb threat was received, a spokesperson for the Arkansas State Capitol Police said. Local media reports in Florida, Massachusetts and Maine indicated that similar threats had prompted the evacuations of state and local government buildings in those states.” A PLOY NAMED SUE — “Eric Adams sues for $700 million from Texas bus companies in latest move against Gov. Abbott,” by Jason Beeferman: “The lawsuit comes as Adams has continued to press federal officials for more migrant aid while blasting Abbott’s busing program as ‘cruel’ and a ‘use of migrants as potential as political pawns.’” MEDIAWATCH THE MESSENGER BAG — “Conservative buyers eye The Messenger at a $60 million valuation,” by Axios’ Sara Fischer: “The investor group met with Finkelstein at Mar-a-Lago, the Florida private club and residence of former President Trump. It includes OMEED MALIK, a financier who backed TUCKER CARLSON’s new media venture; GARRETT VENTRY, a Republican political operative; RYAN COYNE, founder of digital media agency Starboard; and GEORGE FARMER, the former CEO of Parler who sits on the board of Britain's conservative news network, GB News.” SUNDAY SO FAR … ABC “This Week”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Julie Pace and Susan Page. CBS “Face the Nation”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Liz Cheney … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). CNN “State of the Union”: Mike Pence … Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.). FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). Panel: Stef Kight, Meghan McCain, John Delaney and Josh Holmes. NBC “Meet the Press”: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Panel: Mike Memoli, Peggy Noonan and Kimberly Atkins Stohr. MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) … Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.).
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kelly Loeffler is making a comeback with RallyRight, a campaign tech company. Eleni Kounalakis is the latest victim of swatting. Josh Lyman — er, Bradley Whitford had to set the record straight on Martin Sheen’s involvement (or lack thereof) with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. TRANSITIONS — Gabriela Castilla Madrid is now senior public policy manager for global government affairs at X. She most recently was director of the Office of Industry Engagement at the International Trade Administration of the Commerce Department. … Amanda Wait, Carsten Reichel and Vic Domen are joining DLA Piper’s antitrust and competition practice as litigation partners. The trio previously were at Norton Rose Fulbright. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine … former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (8-0) … Gautam Raghavan of the White House … Allison Price … DOT’s Jessie Torres Perkins … WSJ’s Nick Timiraos … POLITICO’s Russell Vea … Ally Flinn of the Cook Political Report … John Solomon … Jeff Hauser … former Reps. Tom Davis (R-Va.), Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.), Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) (8-0) and Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) … Nick Lanyi … Allison Biasotti of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Caroline Anderegg … Pedro Ribeiro … Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Christine Hall … Danielle Melfi … Niskanen Center’s Matthew La Corte … Josh Galper … Kristen Grimm of Spitfire Strategies … former CIA Director George Tenet … David Bauder … Andrew Mills … Patrick Ottenhoff … David Simas … Mimi Mager … Mandi Merritt Risko of FTI Consulting … Alexis Bataillon Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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