Monday, January 22, 2024

The Senate debate’s tonight. Play bingo with us

Presented by Chime: Inside the Golden State political arena
Jan 22, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by

Chime

Rep. Adam Schiff is flanked by Reps. Katie Porter, left, and Barbara Lee.

Rep. Adam Schiff, center, flanked by Rep. Katie Porter, left, and Rep. Barbara Lee. | Richard Vogel/AP

THE BUZZ: FIGHT NIGHT — California’s top Senate candidates are hours away from taking the stage in Los Angeles, where they’ll make their pitch to voters and fight for viral breakout moments in one of the country’s top-watched races.

Tonight’s debate, hosted by POLITICO, Fox 11 Los Angeles and the University of Southern California Dornsife Center for the Political Future, is a chance for Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee to distinguish themselves from their fellow Democrats, and for Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey to show California he can play the politics game.

At stake: A seat representing 40 million people that hasn’t been open in a generation.

The debate will be moderated by Fox 11’s Elex Michaelson and our very own Melanie Mason (Don’t miss Melanie’s pre-debate rundown). We’ll be tracking some key dynamics for insights into the candidates’ strategies as we enter the final sprint before the March 5 primary election, from which the top two vote-getters advance to the general.

POLITICO's Ally Mutnick writes about how Porter and Schiff, both prolific fundraisers, are pouring millions into winning this safe Democratic seat when competitive House districts are at stake.

For those following along at home, we’ve drafted a handy bingo card to help you track the candidates’ favorite subjects and turns of phrase. Let us know when you’ve hit bingo by sharing your card with us on X, using #SenateShowdown

Here’s what else we’re watching tonight…

SCHIFF STAYING STEADY — Schiff’s mission tonight will be to not screw up a good thing. With a comfortable lead in the polls and a $35 million warchest, the Burbank Democrat doesn’t need to take any risks — and he shouldn’t. What Schiff needs is to come away from tonight with a solid showing, one that fends off the attacks from his opponents without alienating voters.

RACE FOR SECOND PLACE — The three other candidates have a much trickier problem, as polling has shown Porter and Garvey in a tight race for the second spot in the November general election and Lee closely trailing in fourth.

Garvey has a clear goal here — consolidate the Republican vote while the Democrats cannibalize themselves — but his appearance isn’t without risk. Garvey, who has been running his campaign like a cameo, could come away looking unprepared. And his unwillingness to embrace Donald Trump — or even say he’ll vote for Trump in March or November — also could be a major turnoff for the former president’s MAGA loyalists. Fellow GOP candidate Eric Early hammered Garvey on Sunday, calling it “disgusting” that a Republican would consider voting for Biden.

Lee needs momentum. Her poll numbers have been hovering around single digits for months, and although her early call for a cease-fire in Gaza has distinguished her from Schiff and Porter, she’s struggled to raise money to bring her message to broader swaths of liberal voters, despite aligning herself with progressive superstar Bernie Sanders.

Porter could use a breakout performance to elbow her way into the top two. She’s running on an aggressive platform: swearing off spending on earmarks and holding herself up as the only major Democrat to refuse money from corporate PACs.

Will she go after Garvey? Or will she try to siphon votes away from Schiff or Lee? Stay tuned today for more pre-debate analysis from POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago.

The debate, from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST at the Bovard Auditorium on the University Park Campus, will air live on FOX 11 in Los Angeles, KTVU FOX 2 in the San Francisco Bay Area and be livestreamed on POLITICO.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced today, but he will be out of state Tuesday to Friday to stump for President Joe Biden.

TWEET OF THE DAY: SHADE ALERT

Newsom DeSantis tweet

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THE SCOOP

Freshman state Sen. Melissa Hurtado holds her hand over her heart as she says the Pledge of Allegiance at the start of the state Senate session.

State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a Democrat from the Central Valley. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: OIL AND WATER — The ultra-progressive California Working Families Party is going after moderate Democratic lawmakers who’ve taken corporate oil dollars — a move to push the Democratic party left.

This week, the group will unveil billboard ads along major freeways targeting three moderate Democrats for accepting significant campaign contributions from the fossil-fuel industry: Assemblymember Blanca Rubio from the San Gabriel Valley east of LA; Assemblymember Tim Grayson from the East Bay; and state Sen. Melissa Hurtado from the Central Valley.

Working Families Party Director Jane Kim said the three lawmakers represent areas that have shifted more liberal in recent years as voters of color migrate from expensive city centers to more affordable suburbs.

All three lawmakers voted against landmark environmental bills to require large corporations to report carbon emissions and ban new oil and gas wells near homes.

“Many voters don’t know that their representatives take so much corporate money,” Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor, told Playbook. “Ideally, we would like to change behavior. And if that doesn’t happen, we would like to vote them out.”

Hurtado said the tactic could actually boost her chances of advancing from the March 5 congressional primary, noting that the Central Valley district is home to many oil workers. The Democratic Party has endorsed her rival, a former legislator and fellow moderate, Rudy Salas, for CA-22, a seat held by Republican Rep. David Valadao (Kim said the group is “not trying to help Rudy Salas,” whom she said has a shaky record).

“Oil is important to this region. It’s important to the state economy as well,” Hurtado said, suggesting the billboard shows opponents are worried she’s gaining steam. “That’s just a positive sign for our campaign.”

Rubio is up for reelection to the Assembly while Grayson is running for state Senate. Grayson called the attacks "deceptive" and said he has supported other efforts to hold the industry accountable and make California carbon neutral.

 

CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now.

 
 
CAMPAIGN YEAR

California state Senate President Pro Tempore Toni Atkins looks on during a briefing with district representatives.

State Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, a Democrat from San Diego. | Gregory Bull/AP

SHE’S RUNNING — Senate leader Toni Atkins officially launched her bid for governor on Friday, entering the 2026 fray alongside Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. 

As our colleague Melanie Mason reported, Atkins has made history several times over as the first out lesbian to be Assembly Speaker, as well as the first woman and LGBTQ+ person to lead the Senate. She’s betting that her long resume in elected office coupled with her boundary-breaking profile is the winning formula to distinguish her from the pack.

She may be one of Sacramento’s top dogs right now, but she’s planning to hand over the Senate leadership role to state Sen. Mike McGuire on Feb. 5 and will term out later this year. That departure from power leaves Atkins with a steep climb building name recognition among the state’s voters.

“I know the work is going to be daunting. I know it’s going to be hard,” Atkins told Melanie. “I’m going to spend every waking minute figuring out how to introduce myself to people across California.”

The only question left is… what is Attorney General Rob Bonta waiting for?

 

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People gather at a candlelight vigil for victims of a deadly mass shooting at a ballroom dance studio.

People gather at a Jan. 23, 2023 candlelight vigil for victims of a deadly mass shooting in Monterey Park. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: PAINFUL ANNIVERSARY — Sunday marked a grim milestone for residents of Monterey Park: the one-year anniversary of a mass shooting at a Lunar New Year celebration, when a gunman killed 11 people and injured nine others.

City Councilmember Yvonne Yiu, who is running for state Senate, marked that tough anniversary with a new ad that pays tribute to the friends she lost on Jan. 21 — and outlines her support for stricter gun-safety laws. Among those killed in the shooting was Ming Wei Ma, Yiu’s longtime dance instructor who taught at the studio where the shooting happened.

“I’ll never forget that day… because this can’t keep happening” Yiu says in the ad, which is titled “Vowed.” She has pledged to support legislation to require mental-health screenings for people buying guns and to require gun owners to renew firearm safety certificates after they expire.

 

EXCITING EVENT OPPORTUNITY: The USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in collaboration with POLITICO and Unite America, hosts the Warschaw Conference on Practical Politics on January 30, 2024 at USC. Top experts from politics, government, media and academia will explore the upcoming election season as part of the following conversations: PRIMARY COLORS: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Beyond, NOVEMBER SHOWDOWN: Battle for the Presidency, TRUTH DECAY: Misinformation and Disinformation in Elections, RANKING REFORMS: The Cure for the Ills of Democracy Is More Democracy. Register to attend in person or virtually.

 
 
UNION TOWN

Members with Teamsters Local 2010 join California Faculty Association (CFA) and other California State University (CSU) unions at a rally outside the CSU Chancellor's Office.

Members with Teamsters Local 2010 join California State University unions at a rally outside the CSU Chancellor's Office in Long Beach on Nov. 14, 2023. | Damian Dovarganes/AP

PROFESSORS ON THE PICKET LINE — Faculty at California State University — the nation’s largest university system — plan to strike this week. The union includes professors, librarians, coaches and other faculty members. The union said it intends to walk picket lines Monday through Friday, canceling classes across the system’s 23 campuses.

As our colleague Blake Jones reports, the union wants 12 percent raises this year — which CSU's new chancellor, Mildred García, argues the system cannot afford. (POLITICO Pro)

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SAVING THE NEWS — Rep. Jimmy Gomez and a host of his House colleagues have written a letter to leaders of the Los Angeles Times, imploring them to avoid drastic staffing cuts that could cripple the newsroom. The newsroom guild held a one-day walkout Friday to protest planned staff layoffs.

The lawmakers urged the paper’s owner, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, to consider offering voluntary buyouts rather than drastic cuts and to engage transparently with the guild about his plans. “Preserving democracy is contingent upon a free and robust press, and the LA Times has been instrumental in upholding this democratic principle,” Gomez wrote. The letter was also signed by at least eight other lawmakers.

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TOP TALKERS

GIVETH AND TAKETH — The Los Angeles Times endorsed Assemblymember Laura Friedman in the congressional race for CA-30, the LA-area seat held by Rep. Adam Schiff (who’s running for Senate). The paper said she has built a reputation as a “thoughtful and principled policymaker.” Meanwhile, the paper knocked one of Friedman’s rivals, state Sen. Anthony Portantino, arguing he quietly killed many good pieces of legislation as appropriations chair. The LAT said Portantino’s track record “raises questions about whose interests he is serving.” (Los Angeles Times)

FIELDS OF DREAMS — The effort to build an entirely new city in Solano County has created a bitter rift between tech billionaires behind the project and some of the area’s longtime farming families. (The New York Times)

NO VETO — San Francisco Mayor London Breed criticized the Board of Supervisors for passing a symbolic resolution calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. Then, Breed declined to veto the same measure. (Associated Press)

EARLY BIRD GETS THE WORM — One of the hottest campaigns underway in California is for an office that won’t be on the ballot until 2026. Why is the race for governor so intense so early? (San Francisco Chronicle)

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — Former Sacramento Councilmember Lauren Hammond died late last week. She was the first Black woman elected to the City Council and, as The Sacramento Bee reported, will be remembered as a caring mentor to a generation of women leaders in the capital city.

MEDIA MOVES — Karl Wells is joining WaPo as chief growth officer. He most recently was chief commercial officer at The Information and is a Dow Jones alum. The announcement

BIRTHDAYS — Mark Solomons ... Rick Rivas Elizabeth AshfordAlan J. Heeger … (was Sunday): Assemblymember Ash Kalra (D-San Jose) … POLITICO’s Jen Haberkorn Cindi Leive ... Rabbi Shlomo Einhorn ... (was Saturday): state Sen. Kelly Seyarto (R-Murrieta) ... Michelle Rodriguez ... Melissa Rivers (was Friday): Baruch C. Cohen ... Logan Lerman ... Jessica Abo

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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