| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | HAPPENING TODAY — POLITICO hosts the first debate in the California Senate race tonight in conjunction with Fox 11 and the USC Dornsife Center. The 90-minute tilt — featuring Democratic Reps. BARBARA LEE, KATIE PORTER and ADAM SCHIFF, plus Republican STEVE GARVEY — kicks off at 6 p.m. Pacific/9 p.m. Eastern. Stream it live from LA Related reads: “The single biggest issue dividing California’s Senate race,” by Dustin Gardiner … “The one issue no one wants to talk about in the California Senate race,” by Camille Von Kaenel
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Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis speaks at a campaign event on Jan. 12, 2024 in Ankeny, Iowa. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | DOWN TO TWO — RON DeSANTIS chose to end his presidential campaign the same way he started it — on Twitter. The Florida governor stood in front of American flags and admitted “we don’t have a clear path to victory” before endorsing the man who for months had called him everything but a child of God: DONALD TRUMP. “It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance,” he said, before slipping in one final jab: “While I have had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the coronavirus pandemic and his elevation of ANTHONY FAUCI, Trump is superior to the current incumbent, JOE BIDEN. That is clear.” No need to detail the precise scale of DeSantis’ epic flameout — the tens of millions of dollars squandered, the political-operative careers derailed, the raw ambition thoroughly foiled. (Read the campaign obit from our colleagues Kimberly Leonard, Sally Goldenberg and Gary Fineout for lots more on that.) Rest assured it will be remembered as a cautionary tale for many campaign cycles to come. The end, in one sense, came slow. The air that inflated the DeSantis bubble in the wake of the 2022 midterms — the sense that hungry-to-win GOP voters would flock to a “Trump without the drama” — hissed out through 2023 as Trump’s indictment bumps and Biden’s poor polling undermined his whole theory of the case. And then the end came very fast: In the days after his distant-second-place Iowa finish, DeSantis was already in postmortem mode, admitting in interviews to campaign missteps and casting forward to 2028. Aides quieted rumors of an impending exit over the weekend as he canceled interviews and stayed away from New Hampshire. But as Gary and Alex Isenstadt report, discussions of an exit strategy were already well underway: “By Thursday, he was thinking seriously about exiting the contest, even though he had been encouraged by the reception he was receiving in South Carolina.” On Saturday, he flew back home to Florida to huddle with aides and family. He made his final decision early Sunday afternoon. As for the reasons behind the DeSantis DeSaster? There’s plenty to point to, starting with the candidate himself, who by multiple accounts suffered from overconfidence, arrogance and social unease. Add to that a flawed media strategy, a truly disastrous split campaign structure, and, as the NYT crew recounts, a badly mistaken reading of the GOP electorate that had DeSantis targeting MAGA voters “ready for a new standard-bearer” who didn’t really exist. Here’s how one person with first-hand knowledge of the campaign described the internal view of DeSantis’ downfall to us last night:
- “The indictments solidified support for Trump.” (Hard to argue with that one: Trump and DeSantis polled closely until the first indictment in March, which forced the other candidates to defend Trump and compelled voters to rally behind him.)
- “The financial struggles of the campaign early on gave permission for [donors] to look elsewhere” — particularly to NIKKI HALEY. (We’ll have to disagree there: Given the campaign's various other frailties, what would more money have accomplished?)
- “The campaign was trying to fight a super PAC that was like deliberately trying to screw it every step of the way until it was restructured.” (Sure, but someone decided to outsource everything to Never Back Down, and it wasn’t JEFF ROE.)
SO WHAT’S NEXT? — Well, don’t expect to see DeSantis at a Trump rally anytime soon: With all the scar tissue built up over the past year, not to mention his Covid-themed jab yesterday, it’s hard to see the diminished governor hop on a stage next to the guy who dubbed him “Ron DeSanctimonious.” (Not to mention that there are plenty of Trump insiders who will do whatever they can to keep him out of the picture.) The bigger and more obvious question is, will the primary continue past Tuesday night? Haley now has the two-person race she insists she wanted all along. But it couldn’t come at a moment with higher stakes: In New Hampshire, she can hardly ask for a friendlier primary electorate. But if she can’t win there — or come close to it — it’ll be a tough sell to stay in the race till South Carolina, four weeks later. It’s not looking good for Haley: The Globe/Suffolk/NBC10 tracking poll has her 19 points behind Trump, 57%-38%, this morning. And as Granite State insiders tell Lisa Kashinsky and Natalie Allison, DeSantis’ exit didn’t help her — it hurt. As veteran Republican operative SCOTT JENNINGS told us last night, there’s little proof that the message Haley is selling — that she’d make the campaign against Biden about issues, not Trump — has an audience: “That is not what a majority of Republican voters are clearly saying over and over again that they want. They want to replay this one more time so Donald Trump can be right.” A DeSantis ally was much more curt (if self-serving): “The primary is over.” The counter-arguments from Haley’s camp are many. That the primary is just getting started. That her support has been rising consistently. That voters aren’t interested in a Trump-Biden rematch. That the votes of 56,000 Iowans aren’t dispositive. That DeSantis and other also-rans are backing Trump “because they’ll be damned if Nikki is the one who can do it and not them,” as one pro-Haley strategist put it. “They want this race to be over before it even starts,” a senior campaign aide said. “There's a reason why Donald Trump is going so hard against Nikki, why he's spending millions of dollars, why she's living rent-free in his brain.” Yep, just ask Ron DeSantis. Related reads: POLITICO: “The Story of the New Hampshire Primary in One Voter” … WaPo: “Haley gets her ‘two-person race’ with Trump. It doesn’t look promising.” … National Review: “Haley Supporters Skeptical She Can Pull Out a Win in New Hampshire” … ABC News: “Immigration, the economy and foreign policy could decide the New Hampshire primary” Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | HARRIS HITS THE ROAD — Later today — the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade — Vice President KAMALA HARRIS kicks off her “Reproductive Freedoms Tour” in Milwaukee. It’s the first of what a senior Harris aide said will be “around five stops” over the coming months in key battleground states for abortion rights. Last week in Wisconsin, Republican legislators introduced a bill that would ban abortions past 14 weeks. In her speech, Harris is expected to tell stories of women she has met and what they’ve had to deal with since Roe fell in 2022 — and lay the blame on Trump. “He made a decision to take your freedoms, and it is a decision he does not regret,” Harris will say, according to excerpts provided to POLITICO. “Just two weeks ago, he said, that for years, ‘they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated.’ And then he bragged, ‘I did it, and I’m proud to have done it.’ “He is proud. Proud that women across our nation are suffering? Proud that women have been robbed of a fundamental freedom? That doctors could be thrown in prison for caring for patients? That young women today have fewer rights than their mothers and grandmothers?” Harris has been the leading voice on abortion rights in the Biden administration since POLITICO disclosed the Supreme Court draft that would become the majority opinion overturning Roe — making the case inside the White House to elevate the issue when other Democrats argued for more of a focus on bread-and-butter economic matters. Now the abortion issue is front-and-center in the Biden campaign, and she is tasked with delivering its core message: Republicans are coming after your freedoms, and abortion is just the start. “The point that she's making is that Americans are realizing, if they're willing to take that, what's next?” the Harris aide said. Related reads: “Abortion fight puts Vice President Harris at center of 2024 election campaign,” by AP’s Chris Megerian and Colleen Long … “Biden expands abortion, contraception protections on Roe anniversary,” by WaPo’s Dan Diamond
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to take up CHRISTOPHER KOOS’ nomination to the Amtrak board of directors, with a 5:30 p.m. cloture vote. The House is out. 3 things to watch …
- Will we finally see text of a Senate border deal? Talks have been underway for two months now and the political environment isn’t getting any rosier. Listen closely to what Sens. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) have to say as put-up-or-shut-up time quickly approaches. To have any shot at voting this week — as Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER wants — things will have to come together quickly.
- Will MIKE JOHNSON put a bipartisan tax deal on the House floor? Friday’s huge 40-3 Ways and Means Committee vote sure sent a message to the speaker’s office, but it’s far from clear what the reception will be. The druthers of GOP tax writers — who paired a costly child tax credit expansion with tens of billions of dollars in corporate tax breaks — might not be in sync with the hard-right bloc threatening Johnson’s gavel.
- Will Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) show up to vote with a smile on his face and a pep in his step? The 56-year-old bachelor proposed Saturday to girlfriend MINDY NOCE on tony Kiawah Island, WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Marianne LeVine scooped. That capped a busy few days for Scott that included a Trump endorsement and a fresh round of VP chatter.
At the White House Biden will return to the White House from Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, in the morning. In the afternoon, the President will hold a meeting of the White House’s healthcare access task force. Harris will travel to Milwaukee to deliver remarks kicking off her nationwide “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour across the U.S. Harris is scheduled to return to D.C. in the evening.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips speaks during a campaign stop, Jan. 18, 2024, in Manchester, N.H. | Charles Krupa/AP | KEEPING HIS OPTIONS OPEN — At an event with voters in New Hampshire, long-shot Democratic presidential hopeful Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) reiterated his interest in running as a third-party candidate, saying he would explore a possible No Labels ticket “as long as the data supports it, to defeat the most dangerous man in the world,” Elena Schneider reports. “Whether it is any third-party entity, if they have data that shows that by putting up a certain candidate, who could actually take votes away from Donald Trump, if it is a Trump-Biden match-up, why would we not all consider that?” Phillips said. Related read: “Biden ally tells New Hampshire progressives to write in the president's name: ‘You don't have to agree 100%,’” by CNN's Ali Main MORE POLITICS DEMS’ MONEY PIT — Adam Schiff has raised $35 million — more than double any other Senate contender in the country — for a race that won’t do anything to affect the balance of Congress. Meanwhile, “some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats,” Ally Mutnick reports this morning. “California alone has seven GOP House incumbents that Democrats have targeted. The campaign accounts of Schiff and his closest Democratic opponent, fellow Rep. KATIE PORTER, could transform those contests. Instead, Schiff and Porter are engaged in an expensive, bruising primary. The tens of millions they’ve raised have largely been spent against each other, not Republicans.” WHAT BOB CASEY IS READING — “In Pennsylvania’s Senate race, McCormick elevates Israel-Hamas war in bid for Jewish voters,” by AP’s Marc Levy TRUMP CARDS
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E. Jean Carroll arrives at Manhattan federal court, Jan. 17, 2024, in New York. | Ted Shaffrey/AP | HAPPENING TODAY? — “Trump may testify in sex abuse defamation trial, but the court has limited what he can say,” by AP’s Jennifer Peltz and Larry Neumeister TIMELINE OF TROUBLES — Ankush Khardori lays out a potential timeline for Trump’s D.C. trial on election subversion charges, including a deep dive on potential legal and political stumbling blocks: “[W]hat is clear is that some lingering courtroom questions are now essential electoral questions as well: When will Trump’s myriad trials take place? And can any jury deliver a verdict before this November?” A looming problem … “[R]ecent polling data suggested that a criminal conviction of Trump, particularly for election subversion, could ultimately sink his reelection bid if he is the GOP nominee. Everything about this is unprecedented, so there is no way to know for sure how reliable or accurate these figures are, but at this point, the trial in Washington looms over Trump’s campaign like a dagger.” More top reads:
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Israeli soldiers move near the Israeli-Gaza border as smoke rises to the sky in the Gaza Strip, seen from southern Israel, Jan. 21, 2024. | Leo Correa/AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen, American, British, and European officials are putting pressure on Israel to allow supplies to flow via the port of Ashdod, NYT’s Vivian Yee, Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Adam Rasgon report: “The ultimate goal, an American and a European official said, is to establish a workable alternative to delivering aid via Egypt in a way that satisfies Israel’s demand for security checks. … The Israeli government has not formally announced the decision to let flour shipments through Ashdod, and the prime minister’s office declined to comment. But the Israeli security cabinet quietly agreed to the plan on Friday.” More top reads:
- Meanwhile … Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU rejected Hamas' criteria for ending the war in Gaza and releasing hostages, which included Israel's total departure from Gaza and Hamas' control of the territory, Reuters’ Emily Rose reports. Such a deal, Netanyahu said in a statement, would amount to “leaving Hamas intact.”
- The U.S. military ended its search for two Navy SEALs lost in the Arabian sea during a mission to intercept Iranian weapons, AP’s Lolita Baldor reports: “U.S. Central Command said the [10-day] search has now been changed to a recovery effort. The names of the SEALs have not been released as family notifications continue.”
THE WHITE HOUSE ESCALATION STATION — The latest attack on American forces in the Middle East over the weekend resulted in no casualties, but Biden and his aides are concerned that it is "only a matter of time" until a larger incident escalates tensions in the region, NYT's Peter Baker reports: “Whenever a report of a strike arrives at the White House Situation Room, officials wonder whether this will be the one that forces a more decisive retaliation and results in a broader regional war.” More context: “Biden administration officials have regularly debated the proper strategy. They do not want to let such attacks go without a response, but on the other hand do not want to go so far that the conflict would escalate into a full-fledged war, particularly by striking Iran directly. They privately say they may have no choice, however, if American troops are killed.” WAR IN UKRAINE KYIV’S AID GAP — “Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid,” by WSJ’s Chelsey Dulaney: “The country faces a $40 billion-plus financial shortfall this year, slightly smaller than 2023’s gap. Funding from the U.S. and EU was expected to cover some $30 billion of that. … Ukraine has introduced a windfall tax on banks, reallocated some tax revenues and ramped up domestic borrowing, which should cover budget spending through February.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Bob Seger and Gretchen Whitmer shared a moment at the Lions game. Judge Judy Sheindlin stumped for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani made a curious cameo outside. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Journalist and NewsGuard co-founder Steven Brill will release “The Death of Truth” ($30) on June 4. The book delves into the relationship between social media and political polarization and examines the individuals and organizations worldwide that have contributed to a divided political environment. The cover — Preston Elliott will be independent expenditure director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. He most recently was a campaign manager for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 re-elect. TRANSITIONS — Barton Gellman is now senior adviser at the Brennan Center for Justice, where he will work with the organization’s experts to respond to the threats of abuse of power and the assault on democratic institutions that may follow the presidential election. He was previously a staff writer at The Atlantic and is the author of “Angler” and “Dark Mirror.” … … Ascent Media has added Rachel Hargett as a senior account executive and producer and Drew Windheuser as junior editor and director of photography. The company has also promoted Lisa Moore as assistant VP and Zack Roday as a partner. Hargett was previously creative media director for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' re-elect. Moore was previously a senior account executive and producer. Roday was previously an executive VP. … Beverly Hart is now head of state and local public policy and advocacy at Etsy. She previously was Director of Federal Affairs at the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society. MEDIA MOVES — Thornton McEnery is now a business and finance reporter at Semafor. He previously was a finance reporter at The Messenger. … Jon Mooallem is now an obituary and features writer at the Wall Street Journal. He most recently was a contributor to the N.Y. Times Magazine. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kristen Thomas, chief of staff at BGR’s executive office, and Kyle Thomas, a congressional affairs liaison at DCSA, welcomed Charlotte Ann Thomas on Wednesday. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) … State’s Francie Harris … Kendra Barkoff Lamy of SKDK … Reuters’ Jim Oliphant … Jack St. John … Dave Schnittger of Squire Patton Boggs … Dan Scandling of APCO Worldwide … Ado Machida … Josh Riley … Rebecca Wasserstein … POLITICO’s Zach Warmbrodt and Jesse Shapiro … WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer Weil … Akin Gump’s Ken Gross … FDA’s Brianna Ehley … AHIP’s Adam Beck … NBC’s Ashley Codianni … former FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn … Josh Earnest … Buckley Carlson of Rep. Jim Banks’ (R-Ind.) office … former Reps. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) ... Kevin Bohn … Heather Kennedy ... Ginny Simmons ... Cara Baldari ... Anna Sperling McAlvanah … Melissa Byrne … Rob Collins of Coign …. Kenneth Romero of the National Hispanic Caucus of State Legislators Correction: Sunday’s Playbook misreported which Fulton County, Georgia, official that Norm Eisen called on to step down. It was Nathan Wade. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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