News: The non-presidential stories to watch in 2024

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

The non-presidential stories to watch in 2024

Jan 02, 2024

TOP LINE

Welcome to 2024, a monumental year for elections across the country. The presidential race will take up a lot of the attention, but there are plenty of storylines to keep an eye on further down the ballot.

Here are just some of the big ones to watch in 2024:

People wait to vote in-person at Reed High School in Sparks, Nevada.

There are plenty of races further down the ballot to keep an eye on this year. | Scott Sonner, File/AP Photo

— A special bellwether in New York: The fiercely competitive special election to replace embattled former Republican Rep. George Santos on Long Island will take place on Feb. 13. Democrat Tom Suozzi, who represented the district before an ill-fated 2022 gubernatorial run, and Republican Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip are facing off in what is (as of now) the only competitive special election on the docket for 2024.

The district was one of the handful of seats that President Joe Biden won in 2020 and a Republican won in 2022. Democrats are hoping a win could be an indicator of the party’s momentum heading into the rest of the year’s elections. Even more, it would put them one step closer to flipping control of the House. But Republicans are riding the tailwind of a series of local wins on Long Island over the last couple of years. Expect the race to be a high-dollar affair.

— Republicans hoping for a trifecta: There are nearly a dozen gubernatorial races next year, but North Carolina’s is the one to pay the most attention to. Democrats have struggled in recent statewide races here — former President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2020 — with the governorship being one of the few exceptions.

Republicans secured a veto-proof supermajority in the state legislature last year, giving them the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and advance their priorities. They’re now looking to cement their power by flipping the governor’s seat.

Cooper is term-limited and Attorney General Josh Stein has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, although former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan is also in the race. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, state Treasurer Dale Folwell and businessperson Bill Graham are facing off. Robinson is viewed as the heavy favorite, but along with him comes a host of scandals — raising some concerns about his electability. Graham is capable of self-funding and has the backing of some establishment Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), which could scramble the primary.

— Competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle: One of the most highly watched House races this year will be OH-09, a seat held by longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Republicans have a potentially messy primary ahead of them. J.R. Majewski, who lost his bid by 13 points last year after a report that he misrepresented his combat duty, is running again. National Republicans thought they had their candidate of choice in former state Rep. Craig Riedel, but after an audio clip surfaced of him trashing Trump, they scrambled to recruit state Rep. Derek Merrin for the race.

Democrats are expected to have competitive primaries, too. AIPAC is poised to spend big targeting progressive members of Congress, including Reps. Ilhan Omar in MN-05 and Jamaal Bowman in NY-16. These are deep-blue districts (although NY-16’s makeup could shift following redistricting) so the primary victor will likely have a smooth path to the general election.

— An upset in the upper chamber?: The battle for control of the Senate lies in Montana and Ohio — two red states currently held by Democrats. Lots of attention and resources from Democrats will go to those states in an attempt to protect Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown. But Democrats also are hoping to flip a target that has consistently seemed out of reach: Texas.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is facing a challenge from a handful of Democrats, including Rep. Colin Allred and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez. Democrats are already preparing operations to funnel in outside money to take down Cruz. If Democrats are able to pull off a win, it would be a remarkable upset. Cruz isn’t the most popular, but a Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas in three decades and a well-funded, headline-grabbing challenge to Cruz in 2018 failed.

— Abortion on the ballot: Abortion-rights proponents are hoping to put the question of protections to the procedure before voters in a handful of red and purple states, bolstered by wins in difficult states over the last two years. That includes Florida, where nearly 900,000 signatures are required by next month to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would nullify the state’s current abortion ban.

The organizers have indicated that they are on track to do so. But should it make it on the ballot, they still face a high threshold to pass it in November: 60 percent. The efforts also face fierce opposition — the state’s Republican attorney general told the state Supreme Court that the ballot language is misleading and asked that it be kept off the ballot. Campaigns to codify abortion rights are also underway in states like Arizona, Nevada and Montana, all of which will have competitive races this year.

Happy 2024, and welcome back to Score. It’s going to be a wild year — thanks for starting it here. What’s on your mind as we get into it? Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 13

Days until the New Hampshire presidential primaries: 21

Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 35

Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 37

Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 53

Days until Super Tuesday: 63

Days until the Republican National Convention: 195

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 230

Days until the 2024 election: 308

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

Presidential Big Board

LEGAL LOOK — Maine became the second state to say that Trump is not eligible to run for reelection because of his role in the Capitol insurrection. Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows made the determination last week, with Trump calling it “partisan election interference” and vowing to appeal to the state judiciary. The Colorado Supreme Court made a similar ruling last month, and the Colorado Republican Party has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to step in.

… RELATED: “Everything you need to know about Trump and the 14th Amendment,” by POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Kyle Cheney.

EYES ON HALEY — Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is “finally under the microscope” following comments she made about the cause of the Civil War that failed to mention slavery, POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and Natalie Allison write. “With weeks to go before voting starts, Haley is now facing the first major test of her ability to withstand a maelstrom in the presidential campaign. It is a significant moment not only for the former South Carolina governor, but for the broader effort among Republicans hoping to stop Donald Trump from steamrolling to the nomination.”

CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) is running for reelection in a new district, avoiding a competitive rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch in CO-03. Boebert is instead switching to CO-04, a deep red district that will be open after Republican Rep. Ken Buck retires. She joins an already crowded GOP primary to succeed Buck.

“Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a pretty difficult year for me and my family,” Boebert said. Boebert has made national headlines in recent months, most notably after she got kicked out of a performance of “Beetlejuice” for causing a disturbance — an incident that she has since apologized for.

CO-03 is a top target for Democrats, but without the draw of defeating Boebert, it could be more difficult to flip the seat. Frisch, who lost to Boebert by less than one point in 2022, has raised millions in his second bid for CO-03. “We scared Boebert off,” he said in a recent fundraising plea. “This makes our race to D.C. harder, but still very doable.” Other Republicans are already in the race for the district, including attorney Jeff Hurd, who has received support from local Republicans. CO-03 is red-leaning, and would have voted for Trump by around 8 points in 2020.

… Republican California Assemblymember Vince Fong, Kevin McCarthy’s choice to succeed him in CA-20, is able to run for Congress, a judge ruled last week. California’s secretary of state previously said that Fong was ineligible to run because he filed to run for reelection to the state assembly, but then filed for Congress.

… Republican Case Lawrence, a Utah businessperson, launched an exploratory committee for UT-03 to replace Republican Rep. John Curtis, who is toying with a Senate bid. He’s the latest to eye the seat, which is a GOP stronghold. Curtis said in October that he would not run to replace retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, but changed his mind. He could launch a bid as soon as this week, per Reuters’ Gram Slattery.

REDISTRICTING REDUX — Georgia has a new congressional map for the 2024 election, after a federal judge approved the lines drawn by the GOP legislature. It maintains the nine Republican and five Democratic congressional seats, but draws Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath out of the 7th District. She will instead run in GA-06, which was newly drawn as a majority-Black district that does not overlap with her current constituency.

… Wisconsin is poised to draw new legislative maps after the state Supreme Court ruled that they are unconstitutional. Democrats brought the case before the court’s new 4-3 liberal majority, emboldened by liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s win last year that flipped ideological control of the court. (During her campaign for the seat, she called the legislative maps “rigged.”) Republicans in the state are asking the court to reconsider the ruling, arguing that they do not have enough time by the Jan. 12 deadline to submit a proposal for new districts. Republican state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said that he’s looking to get the U.S. Supreme Court involved.

IN THE STATES — More Michigan Republican leaders are in favor of replacing state party Chair Kristina Karamo from her post, MLive’s Simon Schuster reports. More than half of the state’s congressional district party chairs pleaded for her to resign or be removed to “put an end to the chaos in our party.” Efforts have been underway for months to replace her as the party is in financial straits.

AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — Vivek Ramaswamy canceled all of his television ads, saying that such ad spending is “idiotic, low-ROI” and a “trick” from political consultants. Ramaswamy’s campaign had spent over $4 million so far this cycle — less than most of the other Republicans still in the race — according to ad tracker AdImpact, and had announced an $8 million ad buy in November in Iowa and New Hampshire. But he told our Lisa Kashinsky that the campaign is shifting to a more “targeted approach,” including door knocking, digital and streaming ads, and mail.

… Never Back Down, which used to be the primary super PAC boosting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, is also backing down from TV and is instead focusing on spending on the ground. Fight Right, another pro-DeSantis PAC, is filling the void with a spot hitting Haley. And Good Fight, yet another newly launched DeSantis PAC, ran a spot over the weekend in Iowa featuring Florida first lady Casey DeSantis — which has footage repurposed from one the DeSantis campaign ran during his 2022 gubernatorial bid.

… Meanwhile, Haley is leaning into her endorsement from Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. “She's a new generation of conservative leadership who can help leave behind the chaos and the drama of the past,” Sununu says in the spot.

… Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been facing calls to drop out of the race (including from Sununu). Christie refuted that in a New Hampshire spot, saying that he is “the only one saying Donald Trump is a liar.” “I will always tell you the truth,” Christie said in another New Hampshire ad.

… Trump continues to have his sights on the general election, slamming Biden over the border — claiming his immigration policies raise the “the possibility of a Hamas attack” — in ads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

… Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is trying to make a last push in New Hampshire ahead of this month’s primary with an ad about the economy. Democrats are split on what constitutes a win for Biden — and Phillips — in the Granite State in just a few weeks.

NC-Gov — Bill Graham is tying Josh Stein to Biden, blaming their policies concerning Mexico and China for fentanyl deaths. Republicans in governors races in 2023 sought to connect their Democratic opponents to the president, although that didn’t move the needle much.

OH-Sen — Republican Bernie Moreno for months has been running ads touting Trump’s kind words about him — even before he had an official endorsement. And now that he does, he’s leaning into the former president even more.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I’ve been eating everything that’s put in front of me.” — Biden to Ryan Seacrest on what he’s been eating over the holidays.

Follow us on Twitter