Tuesday, January 2, 2024

🐦A Soft Landing Is No Guarantee for a Smooth Market Ride

Good morning. The past two months have seen a strong rally in the markets, as investors have seen...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The past two months have seen a strong rally in the markets, as investors have seen inflation moderate and central bankers start to pause on hiking interest rates. Banks themselves are all but declaring a victory over inflation, as well as a "soft landing" scenario that tightens conditions without causing a recession.

While that appears to be the case, it's no guarantee that stocks will continue to trend higher without a pullback. Markets ended the year at overbought levels that leave stocks ripe for a 3-5 percent drop in the coming weeks.

That should give traders some solid opportunities for some fast downside plays. And investors will likely have some better buys on a small pullback in the weeks ahead. Following that, where markets go from there will depend on how the data unfolds.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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With many of them wondering if this could spell the end of their retirement altogether.

The world is a scary place… and it's only getting worse.

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MARKETS
DOW 37,689.54 -0.05%
S&P 4,769.83 -0.28%
NASDAQ 15,011.35 -0.56%
*As of market close
Markets were closed on Monday, in observation of New Year's Day.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Business Model Is Paying Off for Investors
There are many ways to run a business, and just as many ways to get customers to pay. One popular business model is the recurring revenue model. Rather than getting a big one-time payment, and potentially not hearing from a customer again for years, the recurring model offers consistent, if smaller payments.

This model has been popularized across a number of industries. The entertainment industry has leaned heavily into it, particularly with streaming services.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Agree Realty (ADC)
John Rakolta, a director at Agree Realty (ADC), recently bought 13,335 shares. The buy increased his position by 4 percent, and came to a total cost just under $833,000.

The buy came a few weeks after another director bought 1,700 shares, for just over $103,000, and the company CEO bought 1,300 shares, paying just over $76,000. Over the past year, company executives and directors have been steady buyers of shares on over a dozen occasions.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Option Activity: Alibaba (BABA)
Chinese e-commerce platform Alibaba (BABA) is down 15 percent over the past year, as China's economy has failed to grow faster following the end of its pandemic lockdowns. One trader sees a further decline in the coming weeks.

That's based on the January 26 $69 puts. With 24 days until expiration, 7,091 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 239, for a 30-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.42 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Gasoline Prices Predicted to Drop This Year

Moderating oil prices and the operation of new global gasoline refineries could help to keep gas prices relatively low this year, according to analysis from GasBuddy. Oil prices initially rallied in 2023, but closed the year lower, one of the few assets to do so. GasBuddy expects gas prices to average $3.38 per gallen for 2024, down from the current average near $3.51 per gallon.
China's Economy Expected to Worsen This Year

China will likely report that it grew at 5 percent in 2023, slightly below the 6 percent or higher average annual growth in the prior decade. Predictions then expect a further slowing in the country's growth rate, as slowing output and high debt levels weigh on the country.
Apple Posts Longest Revenue Slide in 22 Years

Consumer tech giant Apple (AAPL) was the worst-performing big tech company of 2023, although shares did rally nearly 50 percent for the year. The underperformance came as the company reported four consecutive quarters of declining sales, its worst streak since 2001. Apple faced hardware issues, had Apple Watches removed from stores in December, and didn't release a new iPad model.
Shield AI Raises $300 Million in Series F

Shield AI, an early-stage defense tech startup, has raised $300 million in equity and debt, on top of an additional $200 million raised in November, in its Series F funding. The company is now valued at $2.8 billion. Shield AI is developing an "AI pilot" capable of turning an aircraft into an autonomous system.
M&A Volume Dropped 20 Percent in 2023

Globally, volume dropped 20 percent for mergers and acquisitions in 2023 compared to 2022, with total volume valued at about $3 trillion. Overall, many deals weren't completed for regulatory reasons, or simply because potential buyers and sellers failed to come to an agreement on prices.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
BSX 2.718%
MOH 1.372%
HSY 1.266%
MCK 1.198%
KR 1.196%
BOTTOM
ALB 3.313%
WBD 2.652%
PYPL 2.647%
UBER 2.487%
BXP 2.474%

Quote of the Day
A few rate cuts make sense because inflation has fallen. I think it's likely to be sticky at around 3%. The market is like a spoiled child. It gets a few and it wants more, and that's a very typical situation that we're finding ourselves in right now.
- Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, on why interest rates could come down this year, although rates may not move significantly lower if inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's target.

Sponsored Content
Worried About Making Ends Meet? It's About to Get Worse
In the first 9 months alone… 98 companies have slashed their dividends.

For retirees, this is a living nightmare. Once solid dividend payouts are drying up… leaving investors scrambling to make ends meet.

With many of them wondering if this could spell the end of their retirement altogether.

The world is a scary place… and it's only getting worse.

But that doesn't have to be YOUR story.

There is a way out… (though I do caution you… while it has worked like a charm… not closing out a single losing trade in over 6 years… this strategy isn't for everybody).

In this exclusive presentation, you'll uncover the exact steps you need to take right now to secure your investments from the financial carnage... along with anything the markets throw at us in the future. The man behind this plan has used it for the past 20 years to rack up incredible profits… it even helped him retire after just 10 years... with a 5.3 million "nest egg" that helped him sail worry - free through every Financial Crisis and market crash since.

But don't just take my word for it.

To see what these sentences are, You can see the urgent details right here.


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