Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Election-year politics hampers the Hill

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

Alejandro Mayorkas testifies.

Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas testifies during a hearing on Capitol Hill on Nov. 15, 2023, in Washington. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

ONE STEP CLOSER — The House Homeland Security Committee voted shortly after 1 a.m. to advance impeachment articles against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS on an 18-15 party-line vote. With no Democratic support expected on the floor, Republicans can afford to lose hardly any votes — and Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) said he’s leaning toward voting no.

The backlash is significant: The WSJ editorial board is the latest GOP-friendly voice (joining JONATHAN TURLEY, ALAN DERSHOWITZ, MICHAEL CHERTOFF and others) to warn that impeachment is a bad idea, reiterating that “[a] policy dispute doesn’t qualify as a high crime and misdemeanor.” That indeed is the “emerging consensus among legal scholars”: There’s no impeachment-worthy evidence yet, NYT’s Karoun Demirjian reports.

But Republicans are pushing ahead: House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE said on Fox News that the matter will come to a floor vote next week. And as the Times notes, even an impeachment drive doomed to fail in the Senate would still “force an election-year trial in which Republicans will have the chance to air their indictment of Mr. Biden’s immigration policies.”

THINGS FALL APART — The conventional wisdom in Washington is that legislating grinds to a halt during an election year. Rather than make risky compromises, lawmakers worried about their campaigns revert instead to posturing for their constituents and donors. Partisan show votes become the name of the game, and nothing gets done.

This week, we’re seeing just how true that is. Despite high hopes for bipartisan accord, campaign-trail dynamics have two big Capitol Hill deals hanging by a thread

TAX TROUBLES: Let’s start with the bipartisan tax bill, chock-full with nearly $80 billion worth of cuts — just the sort of election-year goodies you’d think lawmakers would love to tout. Most, in fact, would. But the House GOP’s governing woes are coming home to roost, with an unhappy faction of centrist Republicans borrowing a page from an unlikely source to register their opposition: the House Freedom Caucus.

The group, mainly from New York, is demanding that the deal enhance the state and local tax deduction (aka SALT) for their high-cost districts, and they caused a serious commotion on the House floor yesterday when they almost tanked an unrelated rule to register their opposition.

They eventually fell in line after Speaker MIKE JOHNSON agreed to yet another meeting. (Ways and Means Chair JASON SMITH (R-Mo.), who brokered the deal, steamed to his office and slammed his door shut.)

Johnson will be hard-pressed to offer the SALT crew any concessions — most Republicans abhor the idea of handing a costly break to mostly blue-state taxpayers — but if he doesn’t, he’s potentially compounding his governing challenges by alienating the centrist bloc: As our colleagues Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report, they say they’re just getting started and are not ruling out grinding floor action to a halt to get what they want.

And that’s where the election-year politics come in: Johnson is counting on the New Yorkers to keep the GOP’s majority, and they know it.

“The point that has been made multiple times this Congress is that there are strength in numbers. But for us that delivered the majority, this is the issue that matters,” Rep. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) told them.

 

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BORDER DISARRAY: Meanwhile, it’s been increasingly clear over the past couple of weeks that a bipartisan border security deal was an increasing long shot as DONALD TRUMP and allies moved to snuff out the talks. But, the thinking went, the deal would die in the GOP-controlled House after the Democratic Senate — with its cadre of governing-minded Republicans insulated by six-year terms — sent over a bill.

Now even Senate passage is seriously in doubt, our colleague Burgess Everett reports, with GOP senators — even those who back a border agreement — striking an increasingly grim note. After all, why invite attacks from Trump and the Republican base when Johnson himself says the yet-to-be-released bill is DOA in the House?

For that reason and more, it “certainly doesn’t seem like” a border package can move to the House, Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) predicted to Burgess.

“There are a number of our members who say, ‘Well, I’ll join a majority of the Republicans but if it doesn’t enjoy that sort of support, then count me out,’” he added. “The whole idea of passing something that the House won’t even take up is another challenge.”

Said Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.), “Why would a bunch of us spend political capital on a cause that can’t pass?” And Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.): “I think at some point, unless you’re able to win the debate based on the merits of the policy, that the hill is getting steeper.”

The rapidly changing sentiments come just days before the Senate is due to leave town for a two-week recess. Senate leaders had wanted to hold a vote on the deal before then, but the text isn’t even out yet.

There’s trouble brewing on the left, as well. As our colleagues Ursula Perano and Nicholas Wu report this morning, progressives already furious with the White House over its handling of the situation in Gaza are beginning to balk at the details of the emerging agreement, which abandons the longtime Democratic goal of winning permanent status for Dreamers and other undocumented immigrants.

— “The president would just do very well to remember it has never worked for Democrats to just take up Republican talking points and think that somehow Republicans are going to turn around and thank us for it,” said Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.).

— “I don’t think that we should be accepting a hostage-taking situation and Trump-light policies as Democrats,” said Rep. GREG CASAR (D-Texas).

So how is all this going over at the White House, which has been counting on a border breakthrough to ease the path for Ukraine aid and stabilize President JOE BIDEN’s polling numbers?

Despite all evidence to the contrary, the Biden bubble continues to project optimism that a bill will eventually get to the Resolute desk.

According to one Biden adviser, they plan to continue running the GOP squeeze play: highlighting the hypocrisy of Johnson and other lawmakers who have sounded off for months, if not years, about a crisis on the border then walking away when a deal is at hand. Eventually, they predict, Congress will act.

And, yes, we’d love some of what they’re smoking.

Related reads: “Biden Faces Blame for Border Crisis, Swing-State Voter Poll Shows,” by Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove and Gregory Korte … “Texas border city on edge as Gov. Abbott dials up battle with Biden,” by WaPo’s Arelis Hernández in Eagle Pass … “House passes bill to strengthen penalties for undocumented immigrants fleeing authorities in motor vehicle,” by Anthony Adragna

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and take up judicial and EPA nominations throughout the day, with an early-afternoon recess for weekly conference meetings. MARK ZUCKERBERG, LINDA YACCARINO, SHOU ZI CHEW, EVAN SPIEGEL and JASON CITRON will testify before the Judiciary Committee about online child sexual exploitation at 10 a.m., as Rebecca Kern previews.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY and other cyber leaders will testify before the China select committee at 11 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. Today’s big tech CEOs hearing will double as a promo opportunity for Judiciary Committee senators pushing bills that would hem in online platforms — such as the Kids Online Safety Act from Sens. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.) and RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) aimed at mitigating social media’s harms, and the DEFIANCE Act, a new bill from Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) and AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) that would essentially ban sexually explicit “deepfake” images and videos made without a subject’s consent.
  2. The latest Supreme Court amicus brief filed by members of Congress comes from  263 Democrats who want the high court to overturn a lower-court ruling that threatens access to mifepristone, aka the abortion pill. The 56-page brief, which lays out congressional intent regarding the FDA’s regulatory powers, comes two weeks after 179 Republicans asked the court to reject 14th Amendment insurrection claims and keep Trump on the 2024 ballot.
  3. The spy-powers debate that flared up just before the holidays got punted, and now the long-discussed rewrite of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act doesn’t have to be resolved until April 19. But Jordain Carney reports that Johnson is moving to get a leg up ahead of the new deadline, appointing a working group from various interested House GOP factions. Agreement from the group, Washington Times’ Kerry Picket adds, would strengthen “his position to negotiate with President Biden and Senate Democrats.”

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will have lunch together at 1:15 p.m.

Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will also host a Lunar New Year reception at 6 p.m.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

President Joe Biden answers questions while departing the White House.

President Joe Biden answers questions while departing the White House on Jan. 30, 2024, in Washington. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

THE MONEY GAME — Florida was the center of the financial universe yesterday when it came to the presidential race. Biden appeared at multiple fundraising stops, telling assembled supporters that Trump is a “loser,” per the Orlando Sentinel. Biden also said Trump’s comment that he hopes any economic crash happens on Biden’s watch is “close to un-American.” Meanwhile, the leaders of Trump’s and NIKKI HALEY’s campaigns pitched top GOP donors in Palm Beach, WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Maeve Reston report. Haley’s team argued that Trump’s chaos would cost the GOP the House if he’s the nominee, while Trump’s said his victory is inevitable.

There are some mixed signals from big GOP donors: KEN GRIFFIN was revealed to have given $5 million to Haley in recent weeks before the Iowa caucus, AP’s Michelle Price reports, though his continued support is up in the air. ROBERT BIGELOW told Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer that he’d given $1 million to cover Trump legal fees and plans to give $20 million more to Trump’s super PAC.

And new filings are providing some striking revelations about the state of the campaigns’ finances, most notably this report from NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher that Trump spent $50 million of donors’ money on his legal/investigation fees. (Haley again picked up on this as a new line of attack.) The documents show that Trump is “facing enormous financial strain.” … Meanwhile, the RON DeSANTIS-linked Never Back Down super PAC was revealed to have sent $2.75 million to the Club for Growth-affiliated Win It Back PAC as it attacked Trump last summer, per Jessica Piper. … And ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. raised $7 million last quarter, more of it coming from Trump donors than Biden donors, Jessica reports.

MORE POLITICS

CASH DASH — A flurry of fundraising reports is coming in this week. Among the notable numbers:

  • FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project raised $35 million in the latter half of 2023 and has $40 million on hand. (Last cycle, the PAC spent $26.1 million.) And over the whole year, AIPAC PAC brought in $18 million. That was up from $14.5 million in 2022.
  • House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES raised $113 million for Democrats throughout 2023. In the fourth quarter, he brought in $4.8 million for his own campaign and has $7.7 million on hand. More from The Hill
  • The RNC this month raised $12 million, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. (No word yet on its 2023 total.)
  • Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC announced that it raised $46 million in the second half of last year, besting its rival Senate Leadership Fund. SMP has $61.5 million on hand.
  • The Democratic Governors Association pulled in $71.5 million throughout 2023, Axios’ Stef Kight reports.

UNEXPECTED SOURCE — “Patagonia’s Profits Are Funding Conservation — and Politics,” by NYT’s David Gelles and Ken Vogel: “$71 million of the clothing company’s earnings have been used since September 2022 to fund wildlife restoration, dam removal and Democratic groups.”

BAD NEWS FOR DEMS — Fair Fight, the STACEY ABRAMS group that played a key role in flipping Georgia to Democrats in the presidential and Senate contests, is buckling under $2.5 million in debt and laying off three-quarters of its staffers, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. LAUREN GROH-WARGO is coming back as interim chief executive to try to right the ship.

SINEMATOGRAPHY — “Inside Kyrsten Sinema’s reelection decision: Will ‘voters even care’ about her record?” by WaPo’s Liz Goodwin and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: “As [Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA and her campaign team ponder this question, the senator has blown past some of the deadlines the team set for themselves last year.”

CONGRESS

ERIC SCHWERIN SPEAKS — “Biden Ex-Bookkeeper ‘Not Aware’ of Any ‘Compensation’ President Made Off Family Deals,” by The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam

SCARY STUFF — “Surge in false ‘swatting’ calls adds to lawmaker security concerns,” by Roll Call’s Chris Marquette: “At least 34 members of Congress since Christmas have been the target of swatting incidents … The [Capitol Police] said it is working to track down those who made the calls, but there are limited options to stem the false reports.”

THE FUTURE IS NOW — “Congress confronts security risks as it seeks to expand Hill’s AI use,” by Katherine Tully-McManus: “Lawmakers are determined not to miss the technological wave this time around. But with artificial intelligence, that comes with significant threats.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

CIA Director William Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines depart from the U.S. Capitol.

CIA Director William Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines depart from the Capitol on Jan. 30, 2024, in Washington. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

WAR REPORT — As the world awaits Biden’s response to the drone strike that killed three U.S. troops, the U.S. is already taking steps to improve air security at the base targeted in Jordan, CBS’ David Martin and Caitlin Yilek report. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS and DNI AVRIL HAINES briefed House Intel members and other House leaders on the attack yesterday, per Anthony Adragna. One surprising response came from the top Iranian-supported militia in Iraq, which said it would pause its operations against the U.S., per CNN; the Iraqi government is taking credit, but U.S. officials are receiving the news with a grain of salt for now.

The attack highlights the thousands of U.S. troops still deployed to fight terrorism in Syria and Iraq, who pose a difficult question for the Biden administration about when they should be withdrawn, WaPo’s Louisa Loveluck and Missy Ryan report. And the human tragedy is hitting home in Georgia, where all three of the slain Army reservists lived, WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Tim Craig write.

GAZA LATEST — Progressives urged the Biden administration to resume its funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, saying it provides critical humanitarian aid in Gaza, per Matt Berg. But U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD said the U.S. needs to see “fundamental changes” first, Matt reports. Hamas, meanwhile, said it was reviewing a proposal for a cease-fire/hostage release deal, in what some observers considered a positive sign for an agreement, per Reuters.

More top reads:

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE

POTUS ON THE ROAD — “Biden to visit Michigan on Thursday ahead of primary election,” by The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke: It’ll be “an event hosted by the United Auto Workers on the heels of his endorsement by the union last week.”

Incidentally … “Biden to Offer $1.5 Billion Loan to Restart Michigan Nuclear Power Plant,” by Bloomberg’s Ari Natter: It “would be the first restart of a shuttered US nuclear reactor.”

TRUMP CARDS

Fani Willis speaks during an interview.

District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during an Associated Press interview on Dec. 12, 2023, in Atlanta. | Brynn Anderson/AP

WHAT WILLIS WON’T BE TALKING ABOUT — A high-profile hearing planned for today that attracted lots of eyeballs to the Fulton County, Georgia, election subversion prosecution has been canceled after special prosecutor NATHAN WADE reached a divorce settlement with his wife, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Bill Rankin and Charles Minshew report. Wade and DA FANI WILLIS had been expected to face questioning after they were accused of having an inappropriate relationship; they’ve denied any wrongdoing.

More top reads:

POLICY CORNER

STARTING TOMORROW — “Medicare to kick off first drug price negotiations, and it could get heated,” by NBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr.

OBAMACARE BY ANY OTHER NAME — “‘The politics have changed’: South warms to expanded health benefits,” by Megan Messerly: “Southern conservatives have for years privately flirted with extending public health benefits to more low-income people. Those talks are now moving out of the shadows.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Cori Bush slammed Troy Nehls for calling her husband a “thug” and calling her too “loud.”

David Rubenstein is buying the Orioles.

Elon Musk has 55 billion reasons why he’s mad at Delaware.

Gisele Barreto Fetterman is struggling to take a break from social media.

Marjorie Taylor Greene said Lauren Boebert should worry about her reelection.

SPOTTED: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd having lunch Monday at Old Ebbitt Grill.

IN MEMORIAM — “Jean Carnahan, former U.S. senator and first lady of Missouri, dead at 90,” by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Mark Schlinkmann: “Carnahan was Missouri’s first female U.S. senator and the wife of two-term Gov. Mel Carnahan. … [I]n the Senate, she developed a reputation as a cautious, practical politician. She joined the Centrist Coalition, a bipartisan group of senators, and also emphasized defense issues.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a toast to Olivier Knox at P.J. Clarke’s last night: Antonia Ferrier, Steve Collinson, Justin Sink, Zeke Miller, Jeff Mason, Julie Mason, Amy Gardner, Jordan Fabian, Michael Feldman, Joel Johnson, Jen Loven, Jen Lewis, Theo Meyer, Carol Lee, Brianna Keilar, Jim Acosta, Carl Hulse, Peter Baker, Pam Stevens, David Jackson, Anne Gearan, Nedra Pickler, Glenn Thrush, Dana Milbank, Jon Garcia, Liz Aiello, Jodi Schneider, Dave Clarke, Matt Lee, Margaret Carlson, Margaret Chadbourn and Patrick Ferrise.

— SPOTTED at a celebration last night of Chasseny Lewis’ new role as VP of federal relations at Aflac, which included food from James Beard semifinalist Keem Hughley: Keenan Austin Reed and Michael Reed, John Mason, Leroy Nix, Maia Estes, Moyer McCoy, Cachavious English, Zoe Cadore, Nicole Tisdale and Amena Ross.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Democratic National Convention Committee is staffing up its comms team as it prepares for the Chicago convention: Nora Keefe will be director of surrogate comms, Emily Soong will be press secretary, Haley Wint will be deputy press secretary, and Isabella (Isa) O’Connor will be surrogate comms assistant.

MEDIA MOVES — Sarah Ewall-Wice is now a senior U.S. political reporter for DailyMail.com. She most recently covered the economy and politics for CBS News, and is a Fox News alum.

TRANSITIONS — James Coughlan is now SVP and general counsel at the Ex-Im Bank. He most recently was a partner at Holland & Knight, and is a U.S. International Trade Commission and Carl Levin alum. … Amna Arshad has returned to Crowell & Moring as a partner in the aviation and transportation practices. She most recently was head of the U.S. transportation and aviation regulatory practice at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, and is a Transportation Department alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Holly Otterbein, a national political reporter at POLITICO, and Quinn O’Callaghan, a middle school teacher, welcomed Cian Joseph O’Callaghan on Monday. He came in at 8 lbs, 7 oz. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.), Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) (5-0), Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) and Russell Fry (R-S.C.) … Dylan Byers … national climate adviser Ali Zaidi … CNN’s Clarissa Ward … Fox News’ Martha MacCallumDavid Plotz … former House Majority Leader Dick GephardtNic Pottebaum … NYT’s Katherine MillerHeather RileyChris MarklundDavid Karol of the National Association of Manufacturers … Barbara SlavinNathan Lewin … former Reps. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) and Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) … David Thomas … NBC’s Christine Romans and Sarah BlackwillSam Dorn … POLITICO’s Angel Torres and Michael DoyleTricia McLaughlin … NPR’s Peter SagalTim Naftali … USTR’s Conor Harrington Christopher Semenas … BGR Group’s Erskine WellsTom O’DonnellMichael Kempner of MWW … Fred Karger Amos Friedland (5-0) … Mikhail ZygarLisa Duvall Matthew Gottlieb

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