| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE MAGA CASH MACHINE — “Trump’s super PAC raised $46 million in 6 months,” by Alex Isenstadt: “The rise in donations reflects the growing belief among the Republican Party’s donor class that [DONALD] TRUMP is all but certain to be the GOP’s nominee.” HAPPENING TODAY — PETER NAVARRO will be sentenced for his conviction on a contempt of Congress charge after he defied a Jan. 6 committee subpoena, ABC’s Laura Romero previews. … Separately, the E. JEAN CARROLL defamation damages trial against Trump will pick back up, ABC previews. … The Commerce Department will release Q4 economic growth stats at 8:30 a.m., WSJ previews.
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House Speaker Mike Johnson walks with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on their way to a meeting at the U.S. Capitol Nov. 29, 2023, in Washington. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | HOW THE BORDER COULD UPEND TAX RELIEF — The main story on Capitol Hill right now is how two Republican leaders — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL — are both finding it exceedingly difficult to lead. Let's start with Johnson, whose leadership skills — let's face it — were already in doubt. He’s now facing a new and unexpected test in the form of a rare, election year, bipartisan tax deal that could provide relief to low-income families and businesses. House conservatives have spent their recess poring over the roughly $80 billion package negotiated between House Ways and Means Chair JASON SMITH (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), which would expand the child tax credit and undo restrictions on a trio of popular corporate breaks. Some of those conservatives, we hear, don’t like what they see — and the bill is at risk of getting entangled in a much thornier issue, the border crisis. The crux of their concerns is a worry that undocumented immigrants who are in the country illegally and bore children in the U.S. will receive the CTC benefit. (Never mind that this has been the case for years — under both Republican and Democratic control — and that children born in the United States are natural-born American citizens regardless of their parents’ immigration status.) Now, the politics of the southern border have pushed the issue to the fore in a way that could complicate passage. “We’re not at all happy about the rather expensive further expansion of the child tax credit, which … by the way … wouldn’t rule out tax credits basically going to children of illegal aliens,” Freedom Caucus member Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) told Playbook. “It’s a real problem that we’re concerned about given the current dynamic and what’s going on at the border.” Under normal circumstances, objections from the right wouldn’t matter much since the package is bipartisan: Democratic support should more than make up for no votes from the Freedom Caucus. But House leaders are looking at bringing up the bill next week under suspension of the rules, requiring a two-thirds vote, to bypass the House Rules Committee — the same maneuver Johnson and ex-speaker KEVIN McCARTHY used to sidestep conservatives on spending bills. “This is not a good way to do business,” said Roy, who sits on Rules. Already, there are potential problems beyond that HFC.
- New York Republicans want to include an expansion of the state and local tax deduction that benefits their high-cost constituencies.
- Some progressives are unhappy that the CTC expansion doesn’t go far enough in providing relief that could lift children out of poverty.
- The left is also balking at the fact that under a permanent extension of these breaks, businesses would receive around four times as much over a decade as low-income families claiming the CTC ($525 billion versus $180 billion).
- That’s not to mention concerns in the Senate, where Republicans have balked at the pay-for laid out in the bill — rolling back a controversial pandemic-era corporate tax credit — suggesting it’s a gimmick.
Meanwhile, outside conservative forces are starting to organize. Last week, the WSJ editorial board derided the compromise as “a tax deal that undermines work,” citing a paper from the American Enterprise Institute suggesting the expanded CTC could lead 700,000 people to quit their jobs. And yesterday, as our colleague on the Pro tax team Bernie Becker writes, Advancing American Freedom, a conservative policy group founded by MIKE PENCE, argued that the deal turns the CTC into a de facto welfare program. (Notably, PAUL TELLER, a well-connected and influential former Hill aide, is now executive director of AAF.) Left unsaid: All this complicates Johnson’s job. The speaker, our colleagues on the Politico tax team have reported, wants a large show of GOP support for the package — not a situation where more Democrats than Republicans back the bill, as was the case with his unpopular continuing resolutions. Yet getting there could prove complicated. Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | Speaking of politics upending bipartisan policy … McCONNELL’S SECOND THOUGHTS — Once upon a time (as in, just a few days ago) Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL was pretty blunt in encouraging GOP senators to accept the yet-unveiled border deal Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) has been negotiating with Democrats. So much for that. In a private meeting yesterday, the Kentucky Republican cast doubt on his conference coalescing behind a border security deal in an election year. While McConnell noted that the party used to be united in finding a solution, he argued that the politics “have changed” since Trump is basically the GOP presidential nominee — and the former president wants the issue for his 2024 campaign more than an actual solution. “We’re in a quandary,” McConnell said — news our friends over at Punchbowl first broke last night and we independently confirmed. “We don’t want to do anything to undermine” Trump. The remarks come less than a week after McConnell — not to mention his GOP allies like JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) and even Trump ally LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) — framed the looming deal as a once-in-a-generation policy win. “One of the things that I keep reminding my members is if we had a 100% Republican government — president, House, Senate — we probably would not be able to get a single Democratic vote to pass what Sen. Lankford and the administration are trying to get together,” McConnell said last week. “So this is a unique opportunity to accomplish something in divided government.” To be fair, McConnell’s change in tune reflects reality: Trump and other conservatives have been pressuring their GOP colleagues not to give JOE BIDEN a win on an issue that’s crippling him in the polls. McConnell is clearly heeding this warning. And to be sure, McConnell didn’t entirely surrender on the matter. CNN reports that he played the role of “historian” in the meeting and even quoted Trump complaining in 2018 that Democrats wouldn’t give an inch on the border — all to emphasize that the deal coming together now is better than anything they’ve secured from Democrats in recent memory. The development has far-reaching consequences for not only the border, but also Ukraine. Without a border deal, Ukraine funding — which McConnell has championed almost every day in floor speeches for nearly a year and which continues to enjoy considerable support inside the Senate GOP — won’t pass the House. Period. End of story. And McConnell has to know that. Already, some Republicans are trying to blame Democrats for talks falling apart. “The Democrats prefer the issue than any solution,” Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) told Fox News’ LAURA INGRAHAM last night. Yet we can all clearly see what’s happening here — and that ain’t it. As one rather frank senior GOP aide said to us last night: “It’s very clear that a large group of Republicans in the Senate and the House no longer want to do border security. … Trump wouldn’t have his issue to run on. That’s what’s going on here: They don’t want to give up that issue.”
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and will take up judicial nominations throughout the day. The House is out. 3 things to watch …
- Will Turkey finally get its F-16s? Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO has cleared a major obstacle to approval of the major arms deal, which has been held up in part by Turkish President RECEP TAYYEP ERDOGAN’s slow-walk of the alliance’s expansion. But, as Reuters scooped, the Biden administration is now asking leaders of House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations to assent to the deal. Lingering concerns about Erdogan’s regime might still make that tricky.
- He’ll be back: Boeing CEO DAVE CALHOUN made a mea culpa tour among senators yesterday — including with Commerce Chair MARIA CANTWELL (D-Wash.), who showed little patience for the company’s safety lapses and “culture of leadership.” She’s pledging to drag Calhoun back to D.C. for a yet-to-be-scheduled hearing. More from the Seattle Times
- The band’s getting back together — as in the trio that led House Democrats for the better part of two decades. Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.), the former majority whip, announced yesterday he’ll seek a 17th term, per USA Today’s Deborah Berry — joining former speaker NANCY PELOSI and former majority leader STENY HOYER in hanging around the House.
At the White House Biden will fly to Duluth, Minnesota, where he’ll speak about his infrastructure/economic agenda at the Earth Rider Brewery in nearby Superior, Wisconsin, at 2 p.m. Eastern. He’ll return to the White House in the evening.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a Get Out The Vote Rally at Exeter High School in Exeter, N.H., on Jan. 21, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | SHE’S DOWN. IS SHE OUT? — On the ropes after her New Hampshire loss, NIKKI HALEY returned to her home state for a campaign event last night — and took a much tougher tack against Trump. She said she raised $1 million in grassroots donations in a day, blasted Trump’s mental fitness, challenged him to debate her and did away with her biographical stump speech. And she’s got almost a dozen fundraisers on the books before the South Carolina primary, the N.Y. Post’s Lydia Moynihan notes. But let’s be real: Even her big-name donors who oppose Trump are starting to flee. REID HOFFMAN is turning off the money spigot to Haley, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. Same with ANDY SABIN, per WaPo’s Amy Wang, Azi Paybarah and Meryl Kornfield. Two big GOP conferences in the next week (and a Dallas confab with HARLAN CROW’s wife, KATHY) will show how much other donors are willing to keep funding Haley, Puck’s Teddy Schleifer reports. But Trump is starting to squeeze: He posted on Truth Social that anybody who donates to Haley “will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp.” If Never Trump Republicans have anything to feel good about, it’s not Haley hope: It’s signs of general-election weakness from the former president, Lisa Kashinsky reports from Manchester. Iowa and New Hampshire showed there are still tons of moderates and independents who aren’t on board the Trump train, NYT’s Michael Bender and Lisa Lerer write. Jessica Piper also has a revelatory data dive into the Granite State results that shows warning signs all around for Biden, Trump, Haley and Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.). Stat of the day: Haley and Trump got more write-in votes in the Democratic primary than did the ceasefire write-in campaign, per NBC’s Mike Memoli. More top reads:
CONGRESS GAETZ-GATE — More details are emerging on the newly active House Ethics investigation into Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.): The panel has contacted the woman whom Gaetz was accused of sleeping with when she was a minor, CNN’s Paula Reid and Annie Grayer scooped. (Gaetz denies the allegation and any wrongdoing outright.) They’ve reached out to JOEL GREENBERG, the former Gaetz friend who was imprisoned for sex trafficking and other crimes, per ABC’s Will Steakin. “The House Ethics probe is still being conducted on a staff level and has not been elevated to the full committee,” report The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger and Reese Gorman, who dive into the panel’s sex crimes investigation. THE OTHER IMPEACHMENT — The House Homeland Security Committee has interviewed Trump officials MARK MORGAN and RODNEY SCOTT as part of its work to impeach DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, ABC’s Luke Barr reports. HOT ON THE LEFT — Forty-nine of the 51 Senate Democrats and independents signed onto Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ’s (D-Hawaii) amendment endorsing the creation of a Palestinian state, per Axios’ Andrew Solender. Only Sens. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) and JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) held off. ANOTHER ONE — “The Third Foreign Connection in Bob Menendez’s Spiraling Scandal,” by The Daily Beast’s William Bredderman. (This time, it’s Albania!) AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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President Joe Biden attends a meeting of the Reproductive Health Task Force at the White House on Jan. 22, 2024, in Washington. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | HOW THE HOUTHIS COULD REALLY HURT BIDEN — The spate of attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea isn’t just a military problem for the White House: It also threatens to push inflation back up around the world right when Biden can least afford it politically, Meredith Lee Hill, Ari Hawkins and Adam Cancryn report this morning. The Red Sea is a crucial shipping lane with potential long-term impacts for U.S. consumer goods. Nonetheless, the attacks continue: Yemen’s Houthi rebels yesterday fired at two U.S.-flagged ships that were carrying things for the Defense Department and State Department, per AP’s Jon Gambrell. The Navy, which was accompanying the ships, intercepted some of the fire, and no one was hurt, Maersk said; the ships turned around.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | TRUMP CARDS READING THE TEA LEAVES — Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s latest scheduling decisions indicate she doesn’t expect the Trump election subversion trial to start before mid-April, Kyle Cheney notes. ALL EYES ON ELIZABETH PRELOGAR — “As Supreme Court weighs Trump’s eligibility, the ‘10th justice’ stays mum,” by Josh Gerstein: “[A]ny filing from the Justice Department has so far been noticeably absent.” THE ART OF THE DEAL — “Trump’s Golf-Course Tax Break Could Reach $323 Million,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin MORE POLITICS WHAT’S THE NRCC DOING? — In the looming New York special congressional election, Democrats are pummeling Republicans on the airwaves, spending $8 million on TV ads to the GOP’s $3 million, Ally Mutnick and Madison Fernandez report. Republicans have a serious field program for MAZI MELESA PILIP and some political tailwinds on Long Island. But there are just three weeks left to elevate Pilip against the better-known TOM SUOZZI. WHITHER GARRET GRAVES — “Former McCarthy deputy weighs future as Louisiana GOP leaves him out in the cold,” by Anthony Adragna: “Graves’ fall illustrates how quickly the loss of top allies can tarnish a rising star.” CASH DASH — Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) pulled in a big $5.5 million in the fourth quarter. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — KEVIN BACON and KYRA SEDGWICK will be on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” this morning to launch Swing Left’s 2024 strategy, which focuses on 12 key states with new digital fundraising tools and investments in hundreds of volunteer-led groups. FALLING FLAT — “The RNC Shuttered Most of the Hispanic Community Centers It Touted as Critical to Winning Over Latino Voters,” by The Messenger’s Adrian Carrasquillo BEYOND THE BELTWAY
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Then-Arizona state Treasurer Jeff DeWit speaks at his Capitol office in Phoenix, March 27, 2018. | Bob Christie/AP | AT DeWIT’S END — Arizona GOP Chair JEFF DeWIT resigned yesterday amid a nasty spat with leading Republican Senate contender KARI LAKE, the Arizona Republic’s Ray Stern reports. Lake had leaked a recording to the Daily Mail in which DeWit seemed to tell her he could find her a job if she dropped out of the Senate race. Lake called it an outright attempted bribe; in his resignation statement, DeWit said she’d threatened to release another worse recording. He claims the audio was a “selectively edited” set-up and betrayal of their friendship. The fight between DeWit and Lake, both of whom hail from the Trumpist wing of the GOP, threatens to distract Republican leadership in a crucial swing state, right when the state party had finally started to turn its fundraising around. JILL NORGAARD will step in as acting chair. More top reads:
THE WHITE HOUSE BIDEN’S ABORTION FOCUS CONTINUES — “Bidens invite Kate Cox, Dallas mom who sued to terminate pregnancy, to State of the Union address,” by The Texas Tribune’s Eleanor Klibanoff THE VETO PEN — Biden yesterday nixed a Republican-led effort to undo his administration’s electric-vehicle charger rule, per AP’s Matthew Daly. THE PERILS OF DISCLOSURE — “Lessons learned from Hunter Biden: Careful what you put in your memoir,” by Betsy Woodruff Swan POLICY CORNER YELLEN TALKIN’ — In a rare big public moment for JANET YELLEN, the Treasury secretary today will deliver a major speech in Chicago on her economic agenda for helping middle-class families, CNN’s Matt Egan previews. She’ll focus especially on affordability, parents and how the administration helped blunt inflation while avoiding recession. In an exclusive excerpt shared with Playbook, Yellen plans to say that “the recovery is so strong and so widely shared because Bidenomics is not just about a post-pandemic rebound in demand. We have also focused on unsnarling supply chains and bringing more Americans into the labor force, which increases supply. We are now doubling down on that strategy with massive investments.” MEDIAWATCH TO TELL THE TRUTH — “In blow to Fox Corp., judge rules Smartmatic case over 2020 election lies can proceed,” by CNN’s Marshall Cohen
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Joanna Weiss, a Democrat running to replace California Rep. Katie Porter, is airing a new ad knocking her opponent Dave Min’s DUI arrest. Kristina Karamo was “properly removed” from the Michigan GOP, the RNC found. Nancy Mace wanted to “become the face of anti-Trump Republicans” on Jan. 6. Hillary Clinton didn’t love the “Barbie” Oscar snubs. Alex Jones could exit bankruptcy by spring. Melissa DeRosa and Elise Stefanik are feuding, per Page Six. NEW LISTEN — Jamie Weinstein and Michelle Fields’ production company JMW Productions has released the first episode of its new iHeart podcast, “Finding Matt Drudge,” hosted by Chris Moody. The show is a limited-series podcast looking into some of the mysteries surrounding Drudge while trying to get him to sit down for an interview for the first time in over half a decade. OUT AND ABOUT — Patty Stonesifer, Michael Kinsley, Donald Graham and Amanda Bennett hosted a reception last night for new WaPo publisher/CEO William Lewis, who spoke about the essential nature of good journalism and the newspaper’s duty to the world. SPOTTED: Bob Woodward, Chris Matthews, Phil Rucker, Jane Mayer, Margaret Carlson, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Steve Clemons, Mike Allen, Jonathan Capehart, Francesca Craig, Cathy Merrill, Andrea Mitchell, Maureen Dowd, Ben Smith, Josh Dawsey, Wolf Blitzer, Sally Buzbee, David Shipley, Ashley Parker, Meredith Kopit Levien, A.G. Sulzberger and John Harris. — The Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education, and Regulation hosted a reception at Sonoma last night to discuss paths forward for cannabis legislation. SPOTTED: Tom Daschle, Andrew Freedman, Shanita Penny, Nathan Daschle, Tate Bennett, Michelle Baker, Chanse Jones, Alekhya Tallapaka, Yaw Thompson, Mattie Stauss, Michelle Dimarob, Sonia Norton, Randal Meyer, James Bolton, Jeremiah Mosteller, Will May, Grace Bellone and Caroline Oakum. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Geoff Burgan is now comms director for the Commerce Department’s CHIPS for America program. He most recently was comms director for the Democratic Attorneys General Association, and is an Ed Markey and Biden campaign alum. MEDIA MOVES — Katherine Maher has been named the next chief executive and president of NPR, per David Folkenflik. She’s a former Wikimedia Foundation chief who’s new to journalism. … Brad Stone has been named editor of Bloomberg Businessweek. He most recently led Bloomberg News’ global technology team. TRANSITIONS — Ivo Daalder is now a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors. He currently is CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and is a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. … David Eiselsberg is now VP of government affairs at Prudential Financial Inc. He most recently was senior director for tax policy at the National Association of Manufacturers. … … Paris Kissel has launched a new public relations firm, bekind comms. She previously was at New Heights Communications, and is a Qorvis, Spitfire and Levick alum. … Mark Kroto is now head of federal sales at Weights & Biases. He previously was at Deloitte. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Suzanne Wrasse, comms director for Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Jim Risch (R-Idaho), and Ryan Wrasse, comms director for Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), welcomed Gabrielle “Gaby” Suzanne Wrasse on Monday. Pics HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.), Andy Harris (R-Md.), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) and Aaron Bean (R-Fla.) … White House’s Ashley Jones … NYT’s Jeremy Peters … WaPo’s Michael Scherer … Jim Axelrod … POLITICO’s Caroline Amenabar, Alessandro Sclapari, Kelsey Moore and Chris Parisi … Joe Conason of The National Memo … Navy Rear Adm. George Wikoff … Danielle Inman … CN’s David Woodruff … CampaignHQ’s Will Sexauer … Mallory Hunter … Luke Graeter of Rep. Brad Wenstrup’s (R-Ohio) office … Jason Jay Smart … Erin Heeter of DHS … Nancy Gibbs … Evan Lukaske of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) office … Connor Wolf … NAM’s Mark Isaacson ... Meaghan Lynch … Brunswick Group’s Kevin Helliker ... Joelle Terry ... Erika Reynoso of Amazon … Ed Payne … Tina Tchen … former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver … Dan Kaniewski … Adam Kovacevich of the Chamber of Progress … Adam Falkoff of CapitalKeys … Eleni Towns … Zach Pleat … Josh Randle … Aidan McDonald of Sen. Alex Padilla’s (D-Calif.) office … BakerHostetler’s Kristin Shapiro Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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