Friday, January 19, 2024

😤A Troubling Trend Behind Strong Consumer Spending

Good morning. While consumer spending rose more than expected in December, one trend shows that...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While consumer spending rose more than expected in December, one trend shows that there will eventually be a day of reckoning. Overall savings rates have flipped negative once again. As that happens, consumers draw down cash from savings.

Previously, the last time net savings went negative was in 2007 ahead of the housing crash, and in late 2019 ahead of the Covid crash. If there's another uncertainty on the horizon, investors may be wise to build their cash reserves for an emergency right now, rather than join in the net decline in savings.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 37,468.61 +0.54%
S&P 4,780.94 +0.88%
NASDAQ 15,055.64 +1.35%
*As of market close
Markets rallied on Thursday, reversing losses from earlier in the week.
Oil rose 2.4 percent, closing at $74.07 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.9 percent, ending trading at $2,024 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $40,851 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Bad News May Prove Good News for This Company
Wall Street is active with plenty of mergers and acquisitions. Even during economic downturns, some companies look to combine forces. However, history isn't kind to most mergers.

That's because the acquiring company has to either issue a lot of stock or go into debt. Issuing too much stock dilutes shareholders. And adding on debt can reduce a company's ability to deal with unforeseen circumstances. That's why the end of a potential merger may actually be the best outcome for a company... and investors

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL)
Thomas McHugh, CFO at Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL), recently bought 2,000 shares. The buy increased his position by 3 percent, and came to a total cost of $29,000.

The CFO was the last insider buyer with a 2,000 share pickup last August. Other company insiders, including multiple directors and the CFO have been buyers. One director with a large stake has been a seller in the past year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Option Activity: Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
Mineral miner Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has lagged the market, losing 10 percent over the past year and sliding in recent weeks. However, one trader sees the potential for a rebound in the coming months.

That's based on the June $65 calls. With 153 days until expiration, 8,337 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 122, for a 68-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $5.70 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Retail Sales Beat Expectations

Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in December, beating expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. It's also double November's 0.3 percent increase. For the full year 2023, sales rose 4.9 percent, excluding spending on automobiles and gas, indicating that consumers remain strong.
10-Year Yield Rises to 5-Week High

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.113 percent, its highest level in five weeks. The recent strength in the bond market has come amid signs of a strong economy, and a commitment from the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer to ensure inflation continues to decline.
Homebuilder Sentiment Rises

The homebuilder confidence index came in with a read of 44 for January, a rise of 7 points from the prior month. This is the second consecutive monthly increase. The confidence index is neutral at 50, so while confidence is improving, it's still well below average.
China's Population Drops

China ended 2023 with a population of 1.41 billion people, a drop of 2.08 million from the end of 2022. Births in the country dropped over 500,000 compared to the prior year, to just over 9 million. All told, Chinese births are half the level seen as recently as 2016, when the country abandoned its one-child policy.
YouTube to Lay Off 100 Employees

Streaming giant YouTube is laying off 100 employees, part of a wider layoff of over 1,000 at Google (GOOG). The streaming division states that the job cuts are part of a restructuring plan, and the affected employees will have a chance to apply for other positions at Google.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
LUV 6.777%
FAST 6.587%
AAL 6.535%
CZR 5.51%
KLAC 4.996%
BOTTOM
DFS 9.192%
HUM 8.001%
KEY 4.697%
CVS 4.141%
F 2.706%

Quote of the Day
By the end of this year, rates will likely be lower than they are now — but it's not going to be a straight line. In the meantime, people who are positioned aggressively for more rate declines and for higher stocks, are maybe pulling in their horns and getting a little bit more diversified. You do want to hold bonds, but you also want to hold stocks.
- Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, on why investors should plan on rate cuts this year, but at a slower rate than current market expectations – a view that supports still owning some bonds as well as stocks.

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