Monday, December 18, 2023

U.S. struggles to contain Middle East chaos

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Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’ — “Pope approves blessings for same-sex couples if they don’t resemble marriage,” AP … “U.S. Steel to be acquired by Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. in a deal valued at nearly $15 billion,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

FILE - Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns speaks during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing to examine worldwide threats on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 8, 2023. President Joe Biden has elevated Burns to his Cabinet. It's a symbolic move that underscores the intelligence chief’s influence and his work in U.S. support for Ukraine. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades)

CIA Director William Burns is trying to help strike another Israel-Hamas hostage deal. | Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP Photo

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — In Poland today, CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS met with Qatari and Israeli leaders for negotiations over a possible hostage-release deal in the Israel/Hamas war, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Getting to an agreement will be difficult, as the two sides are even further apart now than they were before the previous ceasefire/hostage agreement. If it succeeds, a deal would be another significant diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict.

But in the meantime, the U.S. is facing the limits of its influence on multiple fronts in the region, and the Biden administration has had difficulty tamping down worsening bloodshed or limiting the fallout beyond the Gaza Strip.

Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN landed in Israel today to get tougher with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government about the need to protect Palestinian civilians, per NYT’s Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt. Austin is delivering an unusually blunt public warning that failing to do so could leave Israel with “strategic defeat” and worse safety, a lesson he draws from his experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. But with nearly 20,000 Palestinians already dead, the U.S. exhortations for Israel to rein it in have had only limited impact thus far.

To the south, the U.S. wants to stop Houthi rebels who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, but allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates diverge on the best approach, hampering American plans to build a regional response, Bloomberg’s Sam Dagher and Mohammed Hatem report. The White House has told the Iranian-backed Houthis to stop — to no avail, the rebels say, as long as the Israel-Hamas war continues. The UAE wants the U.S. to get tougher and use military action against the Houthis, while Riyadh (and the U.S., at least for now) favor diplomacy.

The latest: The USS Carney, a warship, today responded to a Houthi-claimed attack on a commercial ship unaffiliated with Israel in the Red Sea, per CNN’s Haley Britzky.

One unusual course of action to watch: The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is working on prosecuting Hamas in a wide-ranging investigation expected to zero in on the group’s financial moves, Semafor’s Ben Smith reports.

 

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THE FROST/NIXON OF OUR ERA — ZIWE, the queen of comedic interview discomfiture, and former Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.), the king of being expelled from Congress without a criminal conviction, sat down for quite the tete-a-tete — for which Ziwe says Santos tried thrice (unsuccessfully) to get paid. Among the Santos highlights:

  • On Congress: “I wasn’t there to play nice. I was there to expose the rot and corruption, and I did. And I’m going to continue to do it. Republicans and Democrats alike. Swampy, slimy people selling this country down a river. … If you were to put them all under the same scrutiny I was put under, you’d fucking vacate the whole goddamn building.”
  • On how he pays for cosmetic procedures: “I’ve always worked, Ziwe. … My own money.”
  • On JILL STEIN being a Russian asset: “I believe HILLARY [CLINTON] on that one.”
  • On BOWEN YANG playing him on “Saturday Night Live”: “I think he deserves an EGOT.”
  • ON JAMES BALDWIN: “Who the hell is James Baldwin?”
  • ON HARVEY MILK: “I have no clue who that is.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — The man who allegedly crashed into President JOE BIDEN’s motorcade yesterday in Delaware has been charged with driving under the influence.

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

RENO, NEVADA - DECEMBER 17: Republican presidential candidate former U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Reno-Sparks Convention Center on December 17, 2023 in Reno, Nevada. Former U.S. President Trump held a campaign rally as he battles to become the Republican Presidential nominee for the 2024 Presidential election.  (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty   Images)

Donald Trump is making plans to entrench a major isolationist shift in a second term. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

1. LOYALTY TEST: In a second term, DONALD TRUMP and his allies are planning to install national security and foreign policy officials who will align with his isolationist leanings and erect far fewer barriers to his agenda, Reuters’ Gram Slattery, Simon Lewis, Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart report. Among the arenas for potentially huge shifts: (1) trade wars with Europe over defense spending or reduced military aid; (2) weaker economic ties to China; (3) U.S. military operations against Mexican drug cartels; (4) flirtation with pulling out of NATO; and (5) reduced support for Ukraine. Trump might also radically politicize the bureaucracy, firing disloyal staffers.

2. CLOCK’S TICKING: “Pentagon Warns Ukraine Military Aid Funds Will Run Out Dec. 30,” by Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio and Roxana Tiron: DOD is “for the first time giving a precise date for when it will have exhausted its cash. The Defense Department is spending its last $1.07 billion to buy new weapons and equipment that will replace those drawn down from stockpiles and sent to Ukraine, Pentagon Comptroller MICHAEL McCORD said in a Dec. 15 letter.” JOHN KIRBY said today there’s enough for one more aid package this month.

3. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: Who needs SAM BANKMAN-FRIED? The cryptocurrency industry is roaring back into the political arena as top industry PACs say they’ve amassed $78 million to spend on crypto-friendly candidates from both parties in 2024, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports. The push includes key players like Andreessen Horowitz, Coinbase and the WINKLEVOSS twins. The three PACs — Fairshake, Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs — are angling to sway legislation in Washington toward the lighter touch of House GOP proposals that would set up a regulatory structure for crypto, and away from more skeptical voices on the Hill.

4. HOW BIDEN REALLY FEELS: Don’t pay much attention to Biden’s public dismissal of his dismal standing in the polls: Behind the scenes, he and first lady JILL BIDEN “have grown upset” over his political struggles, WaPo’s Tyler Pager reveals. In a meeting just before Thanksgiving, the president told top aides that they needed to make progress on turning his numbers around — and that his economic messaging was falling flat. Worries are rising throughout the party: Biden officials have started to talk about a strategic shift, and Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) “has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win her race” for the Senate if Biden’s the presidential nominee.

To wit: Biden’s job approval rating tumbled to a record-low 34% in the latest Monmouth poll out today. (That is at least better than Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who clocks in at 6% approval.) … On the flip side: Biden’s fundraising has been strong and is on pace to meet his Q4 goal, per WaPo.

 

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5. THE LIES THAT WON’T DIE: Despite legal proceedings against them in multiple states, some of the fake Trump electors from 2020 will be involved in overseeing the 2024 election, AP’s Gabe Stern reports. JIM HINDLE is running elections in Storey County, Nevada. BOB SPINDELL is on Wisconsin’s election commission. JAKE HOFFMAN controls basically all election legislation as an Arizona state representative. And the list goes on. Meanwhile, Trump allies in Georgia are newly pushing old, false claims of election fraud, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

6. GREAT SCOTT: “Tim Scott emerges as a 2024 kingmaker as rivals court his endorsement,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott: “NIKKI HALEY called Sen. TIM SCOTT on Friday seeking his endorsement … Trump has also privately pushed Scott for his endorsement … CHRIS CHRISTIE previously reached out about an endorsement, as well. [Florida Gov.] RON DeSANTIS, meanwhile, has been in touch with Scott too, though the exact nature of their conversation remains unclear.”

7. HOW IT HAPPENED: WaPo’s Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein have an interesting examination of arguably the Biden administration’s biggest accomplishment of the year: avoiding a recession that many thought was inevitable. Though the fight against inflation (and the threat of a slowdown) isn’t over, the Fed, Treasury and White House economics team “are cautiously pointing out that they have been vindicated by data and developments dismissed as virtually impossible until quite recently. … Call it the most polite revenge tour Washington has ever seen.” The apparent “soft landing” is the result of Fed Chair JEROME POWELL and other officials’ belief in a strategy that defied conventional economic wisdom.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

People file through during the public repose for retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor in the Great Hall at the Supreme Court in Washington, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023. O'Connor, an Arizona native and the first woman to serve on the nation's highest court, died Dec. 1 at age 93. Former law clerks of O'Connor stand at left and right. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The late Justice Sandra Day O'Connor lies in repose at the Supreme Court today. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

REMEMBERING SANDRA DAY O’CONNOR — The late Supreme Court justice lay in repose today at the court, where Justice Sonia Sotomayor said that “the heavens shed a tear this morning.”

IN MEMORIAM — “Cragg Hines, former Washington bureau chief for Houston Chronicle, dead at 78,” by the Houston Chronicle’s Peter Warren: “He was first a correspondent before taking over as Washington bureau chief and then a Washington columnist. His writing style, described by colleagues as witty and sophisticated, matched well with his sense of humor and charismatic personality.” Carl Leubsdorf Sr. writes in to add: “He was elected to the Gridiron Club in 1990 and his booming voice and massive presence soon made him a fixture in the club’s annual shows, often performing songs he wrote. … His longtime partner, Bruce Crane, said there will be ‘a memorial celebration of his extraordinary life’ in the New Year.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Eddie McDonald is joining the Biden campaign as senior adviser for Michigan. He’s a veteran Democratic operative in the state who had the same role on the 2020 campaign and helped elect a Democratic slate in 2018.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — John Chilton McAuliff is now senior policy adviser in the Office of Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation. He most recently was senior adviser on climate and rural development for the Rural Business-Cooperative Services at the USDA.

TRANSITIONS — Jay Fields is now deputy policy director for Speaker Mike Johnson. He most recently was executive director for the Republican Study Committee. … Machalagh Carr is launching a consulting firm, Quell Strategies, and will work with Bill Barr to head the American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Legal Action, Axios’ Mike Allen reports. She previously was chief of staff to then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. … Brett Levi Kleiman is now press secretary for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. He most recently was deputy press secretary for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.).

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