Monday, December 18, 2023

How long will the Senate stick around?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

BUTTIGIEG, JURY AND EXECUTIONER — “Feds hits Southwest Airlines with $140M fine for 2022 travel fiasco,” by Oriana Pawlyk: “DOT’s $140 million fine — which is ‘30 times larger than any previous penalty for consumer protection violations” — stems from an investigation of an episode where the Texas-based airline ultimately canceled 16,900 flights and stranded more than two million passengers.”

NOT AN ANOMALY — “Trump reprises dehumanizing language on undocumented immigrants, warns of ‘invasion,’” by WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and Maria Sacchetti

From left, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, listen to remarks.

From left, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, listen to remarks on Dec. 12, 2023. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP

SEE YA NEXT YEAR? — The plan was simple enough: Keep senators in town and use the looming holidays to build up momentum on a deal trading new border security measures for tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine aid.

That plan, favored by Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, is now on life support.

A marathon weekend of negotiations failed to produce a border security framework, Republicans are balking publicly and privately about the prospect of a snap vote, and Democrats continue to face pressure from the left against toughening migrant policy.

So when senators walk into the Capitol this evening for votes, expect a lot of them to be asking themselves the same question: Why, exactly, are we here this week?

That’s not the same as saying the border talks are hopeless.

To paraphrase our colleague Burgess Everett, two things can be true: The trio of bipartisan negotiations — Sens. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) — can still be making progress, as they say they are. But there can also be no realistic path to a Senate vote this month, which there isn’t.

Sinema told reporters last night that negotiators have closed out some sections of the border talks, but it remains a classic nothing-is-agreed-to-until-everything-is-agreed-to situation. All the latest from Burgess and Myah Ward

Republicans, meanwhile, spent the weekend blaring at the top of their lungs that they won’t get jammed into accepting something they’re uncomfortable with.

In a letter to his GOP colleagues yesterday, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL insisted that there are “significant issues still under discussion,” a warning that came just hours after Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) made similar we-won’t-get-bullied spiels on the Sunday shows. Later in the day, a group of conservative GOP senators asked for a special conference meeting on the border talks, seemingly ensuring the fight will continue into the New Year.

Lankford himself acknowledged to reporters last night that the week of Jan. 8 — when both chambers return from the holiday recess — would be a more “realistic timeline” for a vote.

"People see these big ideas and say it’s simple just to be able to settle that. But underneath every big idea is a hundred smaller decisions that all have to be made — and every one of them is complicated,” he said.

Related read: “How the White House got involved in the border talks on Capitol Hill — with Ukraine aid at stake,” by AP’s Seung Min Kim

It’s the latest reminder that deadlines can be tricky business on Capitol Hill. Hard deadlines, like a government shutdown or a debt-ceiling breach, tend to work more often than not. Self-imposed deadlines, like the year-end ultimatum from Schumer and the White House? Not so much.

So, again, why are they here? Schumer annoyed more than a few of his GOP colleagues by canceling a week of holiday recess to juice the border talks. Expect the lack of a border breakthrough — and rising tarmac fever — to speed discussions about an early exit this week.

That will likely require lining up votes on a stopgap FAA reauthorization, confirmations of at least some of the 11 four-star generals still caught up in Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) Pentagon blockade, and a handful of other nominations Schumer is ready to push through this week.

 

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KNOWING BOB GOOD — The civil war inside the House Freedom Caucus is poised to spill into next year as Republican firebrand BOB GOOD takes the reins of the rebel group.

CNN’s Mel Zanona, Alayna Treene and Manu Raju went deep yesterday on the Virginia Republican who is dividing members of the group. Some Freedom Caucus members, for instance, have pressed Good about his decision to back DeSantis over GOP presidential front-runner DONALD TRUMP, but that’s far from the only point of contention.

As our colleagues on the Congress team reported last week, other conservatives have voiced concerns about Good being among the eight hardliners who joined with Democrats to force KEVIN McCARTHY out as speaker. Rep. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) even stepped down from the group’s board in protest of his tactics, arguing that it would curb the group’s influence.Good’s ascension to caucus chair stands to be a particular pain for new Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. For all of the moaning and groaning from GOP leaders over the years about Freedom Caucus tactics, the truth is that many of its chairmen have operated with at least a morsel of restraint — at least compared to what its most hardcore members wanted.

Case in point:

  • O.G. Freedom Caucus chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade member MARK MEADOWS (R-N.C.) against trying to oust then-Speaker JOHN BOEHNER.
  • Meadows, after he became chair, bucked some members of the group and endorsed a replacement for Obamacare after facing pressure from Trump for sinking Republicans’ original plan to supplant BARACK OBAMA’s signature healthcare law.
  • More recently, immediate past chair SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) softened his hardass reputation and — with the influence of Jordan, who’d become close with McCarthy — ended up voting with leadership on several major bills this year, surprising many members of the group.

Enter Good, who hasn’t exactly shown that kind of restraint.

Not only is he one of the most conservative members of the group and a proud employer of bomb-throwing tactics, he’s also now facing questions about his loyalty to Trump (and a primary challenge from a Trump loyalist).

That means, unfortunately for Johnson, Good is a man with something to prove.

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A note from Playbook Editor Mike DeBonis: Later today, you'll be receiving Playbook PM, Washington’s official halftime report, where we’ll keep you up to the minute on all of the happenings on Capitol Hill, in the White House, on the campaign trail and all across politics. For our previously AM-only subscribers, you can expect this essential weekday update in your inbox right around lunchtime. And for our longtime PM subscribers, we’re debuting a new streamlined format today that will deliver Playbook’s trademark insight and analysis plus easy-to-digest bites on the day’s important stories. Thank you for subscribing, and we hope you enjoy reading!

THE (PRE-HOLIDAY) WEEK — Tomorrow: President JOE BIDEN and Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS speak at a National Cathedral memorial service for SANDRA DAY O’CONNOR. Trump holds a “Commit to Caucus” event in Waterloo, Iowa. … Wednesday: Biden travels to Milwaukee for a “Bidenomics” event. Trump response due to special counsel’s request for Supreme Court review of immunity. November FEC deadline for presidential campaigns, PACs and parties.… Thursday: Q3 economic growth figures released. … Saturday: Biden heads to Camp David. … Sunday: Christmas Eve.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up MARTIN O’MALLEY’s nomination as Social Security Administration commissioner, with a vote at 5:30 p.m.

The House is out.

What we’re watching … The story everyone was talking about over the weekend might have ended with the news that Senate staffer AIDAN MAESE-CZEROPSKI is no longer a congressional employee. Or it might not: We’ll be watching to see if the Capitol Police, Senate Sergeant-at-Arms and chamber leaders will be pursuing an investigation into how anyone could manage to tape themselves having sex in one of Capitol Hill’s most iconic hearing rooms.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief this morning.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

Joe Biden arrives for a meeting, entering by two U.S. flags.

Third-party candidates are proving to be a formidable challenge to President Joe Biden. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS READING — Third-party candidates are proving to be a formidable challenge to reassembling Biden’s winning election coalition — especially among younger voters, Bloomberg’s Airielle Lowe reports: “Interest in independent candidates such as ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., the offspring of a celebrated Democratic political dynasty, and possibly moderate West Virginia Senator JOE MANCHIN, who is considering a run, is the highest in at least 20 years … That appeal is strongest among key Democratic constituencies such as the young, union households and urban residents, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters.”

More on the numbers: “Overall, Biden 2020 voters are more drawn to third-party alternatives while more of Donald Trump’s 2020 supporters stand by their man: 16% say they would vote for Kennedy or another independent candidate compared to 11% of Trump 2020 supporters, according to the swing-state poll.”

TOP-ED — “A Third-Party Candidate Can’t Win in 2024,” by JIM MESSINA for POLITICO Magazine: “The idea that a ‘unity ticket’ featuring a Republican and a Democrat could somehow produce a nominee with ‘a clear path to victory’ is worse than a political fiction. The group behind it, No Labels, is pushing a dangerous lie that would simply serve to put Trump back in the White House.”

More top reads: 

  • Meanwhile, NY Mag's Gabriel Debenedetti has an in-depth inside look at the Biden reelection campaign strategy, diving into how the president’s methodical and "unflashy" approach to reelection has stoked anxiety among many Democrats who are pushing for more urgency and aggression. Efforts to communicate these plans have been met with apprehension by insiders who said "they couldn’t shake the feeling that for a sophisticated crowd, what they were hearing — the high-level outline of the plan — felt ‘obvious.’”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel. | Abir Sultan/AP

ISRAEL-HAMAS LATEST — Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN are traveling to Tel Aviv to advise the Israeli government on how to reduce the scope of their campaign against Hamas in Gaza, amid recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed militants, AP’s Tara Copp reports: “There are implications for the tens of thousands of U.S. service members deployed in the region. … There are 19 U.S. warships in the region, including seven in the eastern Mediterranean. A dozen more stretched down the Red Sea, across the Arabian Sea and up into the Persian Gulf.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s hold on power now seems “shakier than ever” as he faces rising casualties in the war, hostages that are still held in Gaza and increasing scrutiny from Western allies, NYT’s Steven Erlanger reports: “Now, the actions of the Israeli soldiers who killed hostages, rather than rescue them, may give even more impetus to those who argue that the intense military campaign, with its bombing and street fighting, is endangering those still held captive, as well as bringing Israel into disrepute.”

Related read: “Israel finds large tunnel adjacent to Gaza border, raising new questions about prewar intelligence,” by AP’s Ariel Schalit and Julia Frankel

More top reads:

TRUMP CARDS

FAKE OUT — At a campaign event in Reno last night, Trump said, without evidence, that six Nevada Republican officials were unfairly targeted by the Biden administration in connection with his 2020 election interference scheme and accused of being fake electors, NYT’s Michael Gold reports: “Those charged included MICHAEL J. McDONALD, the state party’s chairman. ‘They’re a bunch of dirty players,’ Mr. Trump said of Mr. Biden and Democrats. ‘Look at what they’re doing right here to Michael and great people in this state. It’s a disgrace.’”

More context: “Both parties are eyeing Nevada next year, when a Senate seat will also be on the ballot. … Mr. Trump’s speech in Reno focused heavily on Mr. Biden, offering a possible preview of attacks he may wield if he wins the Republican nomination and the two face off next fall.”

 

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CONGRESS

DEAN IN THE DOGHOUSE — “Dean Phillips' standing on Capitol Hill has all but collapsed,” by Axios’ Andrew Solender: “[Rep. DEAN] PHILLIPS [D-Minn.] has undergone a stunningly swift fall from grace and elicits a rare level of hostility from colleagues who elected him to House Democratic leadership just a year earlier, underscoring the perils of challenging party orthodoxy. … One senior House Democrat described the feeling toward Phillips within the Democratic caucus as ‘pure hatred,’ saying many members are ‘pissed’ about his attacks on Biden.”

FUNNY BUSINESS — “When Ziwe interviewed George Santos, according to George Santos,” by WaPo’’s Herb Scribner and Anne Branigin

POLICY CORNER

ABORTION IN AMERICA — Anti-abortion organizations are attempting to dissuade people from signing petitions that would bring the issue before voters next year in states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly report this morning: “[W]hile conservatives celebrated the fall of Roe for returning the question of abortion rights to the people, these efforts are seen as an implicit admission that anti-abortion groups don’t believe they can win at the ballot box — even in red states — and that the best way to keep restrictions on the procedure is to keep voters from weighing in directly.”

NEWS YOU CAN USE — “The 45-Second Tool to Change Your Life,” by POLITICO Mag’s Erin Schumaker: “Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY is worried about our sad social lives. … Murthy has also taken his message about the power of friendship on the road with a cross-country tour aimed at a group not often associated with social isolation: college students.’

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE —  The Florida Republican Party's executive committee moved yesterday to censure Chairman CHRISTIAN ZIEGLER in the wake of a rape accusation, Kimberly Leonard reports from Orlando. The sanction means he will no longer be paid his salary or assigned any tasks related to the position even as he refuses to resign: “According to a search warrant affidavit, Ziegler and his wife, Moms for Liberty cofounder BRIDGET ZIEGLER, admitted they had been in a three-way sexual encounter a year earlier with the alleged victim, opening the couple up to accusations of hypocrisy since they push traditional family values.”

More details: “Ziegler had for weeks faced calls from top Florida Republicans to step down, including Gov. RON DeSANTIS, Sens. MARCO RUBIO and RICK SCOTT and legislative leaders. Party members Sunday said they were enraged that Ziegler wouldn’t resign voluntarily and had allowed the situation to escalate.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

SCARY SITUATION — “Car plows into parked vehicle in Biden’s motorcade outside Delaware campaign headquarters,” by AP’s Colleen Long: “While Biden was walking from the campaign office to his waiting armored SUV, a sedan hit a U.S. Secret Service vehicle that was being used to close off intersections near the headquarters for the president’s departure. … Biden paused and looked over toward the sound, surprised, before he was ushered into the vehicle, where his wife was already seated.”

AULD LANG SYNE — The White House this morning released a year-end memo touting the Biden administration’s achievements, emphasizing progress related to the economy. Since taking office, Biden has “amassed one of the most impactful legislative records in generations, fought to grow our economy by rebuilding the economy from the bottom up and middle out, and delivered the strongest recovery in the developed world,” White House comms director BEN LaBOLT writes this morning. The memo also pushes back against “extreme Congressional Republicans” who “show each day that they don’t have a plan to lower costs for families.” Read the full memo

JUDICIARY SQUARE

NEW THIS MORNING — “A ‘Delicate Matter’: Clarence Thomas’ Private Complaints About Money Sparked Fears He Would Resign,” by ProPublica’s Justin Elliott, Joshua Kaplan, Alex Mierjeski and Brett Murphy: “At the time, Thomas’ salary was $173,600, equivalent to over $300,000 today. But he was one of the least wealthy members of the court, and on multiple occasions in that period, he pushed for ways to make more money. In other private conversations, Thomas repeatedly talked about removing a ban on justices giving paid speeches.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “AP’s Lawrence Knutson, who covered Washington’s transcendent events for nearly 4 decades, has died,” by AP’s Calvin Woodward: “Knutson’s AP career spanned 37 years and the terms of eight presidents before his retirement in 2003. … In that time, he established himself as an expert on Washington — ‘a city of inspiration and spite, of spring bloom and eternal ambition, a low-rise marble capital that tourists honor and critics malign,’ he wrote. He seemed to carry the soul of the place with him, as soulless as that place could seem to be to some.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Friday at the Black Professionals in International Affairs’ annual holiday gala at the St. Regis Washington honoring U.S. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, Jalina Porter and Combiz Abdolrahimi: Alexandria Maloney, Anna Mok, Charles Carithers, Shawanesh Underwood, Tasha Austin-Williams, Malikat Rufai, Howard Jean, Lawrence Casselle, Tammie Smiley, Philomena Desmond-Ogugua, Sandile Hlatshwayo, Brandon Andrews, Michelle Washington, Ethel Mwedziwendira and George Walker.

STAFFING UP — Daria Dawson is joining America Votes as executive director, Olivia Alafriz scoops this morning. Dawson previously was America Votes’ national political director and deputy executive director.

TRANSITION — Emily Tavenner is now comms director for New America’s technology and democracy programs. She previously was the senior comms manager at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. … Veronica Perez is joining Mercury as a partner and co-chair of their California business. She previously had been CEO of Veronica Perez & Associates.

NEW PRO-ESG PLAY — Unlocking America's Future is launching an eight-figure campaign led by Zac Petkanas, Josh Schwerin, Erika Gudmundson and Kyle Herrig aimed at protecting "responsible investing," also known as environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. The nonpartisan group says it will spend more than $10 million dollars on paid media, message testing and other grasstops tactics to "strike back against well-funded attacks targeting American businesses, investors, and consumers.”

WEEKEND WEDDING — Lee Bonner, a government affairs specialist at Maynard Nexen and a Kevin McCarthy alum, and Andrew Friedman, a strategic policy analyst at IBM, got married this weekend at St. Paul’s Episcopal Church in Mobile, Alabama. The couple met at the University of Alabama. SPOTTED: Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, Reps. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) and Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson, Jalen Drummond, John Leganski, Doug Davis, Dayne Cutrell, Jamie Gillespie, Cullen Murphy, Liz Filmore, Brennan Johnson, Miriam Fry, Terry Lathan, Watson Donald, Mary Elliott Aderholt and Caroline Franklin.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Brookings’ Cecilia Rouse (6-0) … Reps. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) and Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) … Randi WeingartenMatt SchlappJennifer Scoggins Hanks … WSJ’s Jeanne Cummings and Andrew RestucciaRobb Watters of the Madison Group … POLITICO’S Eric Millinder, Grace Strmecki and Edward Klump … CNN’s Rachel Streitfeld, Ali Main and Lisa Respers France Liz Halloran of Cornerstone Public Affairs … NRCC’s Mike Thom Paul Windsor of Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) office … Rich LuchettePhilip Bennett of Rep. Summer Lee’s (D-Penn.) office … Danielle MoonNaomi Lake of Rep. Chuy García’s (D-Ill.) office … Matthew Ceja of Rep. Raul Ruiz’s (D-Calif.) office … WilmerHale’s Alyssa DaCunha (4-0) … … Noelle Britton of Rep. Lloyd Smucker’s (R-Pa.) office … Tyler LechtenbergJim Carter of the America First Policy Institute … Morning Consult’s John Leer … AP’s Will Lester ... Wes Coulam of Washington Council Ernst & Young … Frank Coleman ... Elissa Dodge of Sable Strategy ... Noam Neusner Dov Zakheim Ryan McCrimmonDanielle AlvarezCasey Murray Sarah Shulman

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Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misidentified an attendee at Sabrina Rodriguez’s birthday party. It was Cory Booker. It also misstated the date on which a WSJ poll was first published.

 

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1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023.

 
 

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