| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | Who said off-years are slow? 2023 was an eventful year filled with major elections, and provided some big clues about 2024. Here are some takeaways from a jam-packed 2023.
|  Abortion-rights messaging remained successful in 2023's elections. | Joe Maiorana/AP Photo | — Abortion-rights messaging is still salient: Democrats relied on abortion rights to propel them to wins across the country in competitive races. Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal justice, flipped ideological control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court by leaning into the issue in the spring. The issue didn’t fade in November: Virginia Democrats won the legislature and Pennsylvania Democrat Dan McCaffery captured a seat on the state Supreme Court by emphasizing the topic. And even in deep-red Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear successfully hit his opponent over the state’s strict abortion ban. The issue also proved fruitful when it was literally on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly backed abortion rights — twice — in Ohio, a state that has trended red in recent years. And it will remain in the forefront in 2024. Abortion-rights advocates in nearly a dozen states — including those with battleground races, like Arizona, Nevada, Montana and New York — are hoping to get initiatives on the ballot that would expand access to the procedure. Even in the states where there are not planned ballot initiatives, it’s clear that Democrats will continue to hammer Republicans on abortion — and the clock is ticking for the GOP to figure out how to retool its strategy when talking about the issue. — Down-ballot races have long-term impacts: In 2022, Republicans earned a 5-2 majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, flipping control from Democrats. Months later, the court overturned a past ruling saying partisan gerrymandering is illegal. That cleared the way for North Carolina Republicans to gerrymander the congressional map, setting the party up to flip as many as four seats. Down-ballot races — from state legislative to state Supreme Courts — have received national attention over the last year as campaigns message on the long-term impact these elections have. And we’re poised to see even more waves from these elections in the coming months. In Wisconsin, for instance, Democratic-aligned groups recently challenged the state’s legislative maps after Protasiewicz, who called the state’s electoral maps “rigged” during her campaign, was seated. — Elections are only getting more expensive: Plenty of races broke fundraising records this year. Some of Virginia’s state legislative elections had “historic” fundraising, according to OpenSecrets. Spending in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race hit $70 million, breaking a state record. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court races — which are typically sleepier races — also had record spending. And that was all in an off-year. With a high-dollar presidential election on the ballot and control of the House on the line, even more records are expected to be broken in 2024. — Trump maintains his grip: Former President Donald Trump was indicted multiple times this year. He’s been attacked on the debate stage (kind of), the airwaves and the campaign trail. He still has a double-digit lead over his primary opponents. Trump enters 2024 as the frontrunner of the GOP presidential primary. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley has picked up momentum, earning coveted endorsements from Americans for Prosperity Action and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu in recent weeks. But it’s hard to picture a scenario that topples Trump, unless the anti-Trump field coalesces around one candidate. The first legitimate test of Trump’s viability is rapidly approaching, with the Iowa caucuses in just four weeks. — Dems win, despite Biden’s unpopularity: Democrats won tough races in 2023, even as concerns swirl regarding President Joe Biden’s chances next year. Those wins came in spite of Republicans’ attempts to tie Democrats to the president, who remains unpopular. With Biden almost certainly on the top of the ticket next year, we’ll see if candidates further down the ballot can continue to push back against national headwinds. Happy Monday! To my Weekly Score readers, this is the last time we’ll meet for 2023 — thanks for reading, and I hope you have a happy and relaxing holiday. See you in 2024! Pro subscribers, you still have me for the rest of the week. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 28 Days until the Republican National Convention: 210 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 245 Days until the 2024 election: 323
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| | SECURING THE SENATE — In Arizona, Ohio and Montana, Senate Republicans are escalating their push to “head off problematic nominees in a slate of critical states that could determine control of the Senate next year,” POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Burgess Everett write. “In Arizona, some Republicans have so far unsuccessfully attempted to clear the field for Kari Lake by urging her opponent to primary a House member instead. In Ohio, GOP Sen. J.D. Vance is trying to sell party leaders on his preferred pick in a three-way contest. And in [NRSC Chair Steve Daines’ (R-Mont.)] home state, he and his allies are looking to end the GOP primary before it starts.” SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — The race for NY-03 could serve as a bellwether for how the Israel-Hamas war will factor into next year’s presidential election. Whether former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s “unwavering backing of Israel leads younger, more liberal voters to sit out the election — rather than support him — could foreshadow how … Biden will fare on the issue,” POLITICO’s Emily Ngo notes. Republican candidate Mazi Melesa Pilip is also a staunch supporter of Israel. LEGAL LOOK — California state Assemblymember Vince Fong, Kevin McCarthy’s endorsed candidate to succeed him, is ineligible to run for Congress, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason and Jeremy B. White report. Fong filed to run for reelection to the state assembly, but then filed for CA-20. California’s election law bars candidates from filing nomination papers for more than one office at the same election, and also forbids candidates from dropping out of a race after the filing deadline. Fong’s campaign said it is planning to challenge the decision in court. … The Indiana Supreme Court will hold arguments Feb. 12 concerning Republican Senate candidate John Rust’s eligibility — three days after the state’s filing deadline. Indiana law says that a candidate’s past two primary elections must be cast with the party the candidate is running in, or they must get approval from a county party chair. Rust, who did not vote as a Republican in his past two primary elections and faces an uphill battle against Rep. Jim Banks, is challenging that law. If Rust does collect enough signatures, “the court’s decision could remove him from the ballot,” the Indiana Capital Chronicle’s Niki Kelly writes. BALLOT BATTLE — Conservatives who are trying to keep pro-abortion rights initiatives off the ballot are “testing new tactics” to keep them away from voters, from persuading people against signing petitions to appealing to state courts, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly report. “These efforts are seen as an implicit admission that anti-abortion groups don’t believe they can win at the ballot box — even in red states — and that the best way to keep restrictions on the procedure is to keep voters from weighing in directly.” IN THE STATES — The Republican Party of Florida voted Sunday to strip Chair Christian Ziegler of his power amid a rape allegation, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard reports. “Ziegler had for weeks faced calls from top Florida Republicans to step down, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott and legislative leaders. Party members Sunday said they were enraged that Ziegler wouldn’t resign voluntarily and had allowed the situation to escalate.”
| | PRESIDENTIAL — Former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is running his first spot of the election, claiming that he is the “only one” to defeat Trump. He hits DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley for fighting with each other instead of the former president. The ad is running in New Hampshire. … Tell It Like It Is, the super PAC boosting Christie, launched its “largest paid media campaign” of the cycle, pouring $3.5 million into broadcast, cable, digital and radio in New Hampshire. The group’s latest ad touts Christie as the “only Republican” who “tells the truth.” OH-09 — A primary problem is brewing for the GOP in OH-09, a competitive district held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. A clip surfaced earlier this month of candidate Craig Riedel, who earned the backing of House leadership earlier this year, calling Trump “arrogant.” That caused some Ohio Republicans to shift their support away from him and toward J.R. Majewski, who lost to Kaptur last year after a news report on his military records indicated he lied about combat duty in Afghanistan. House Republicans from Ohio met last week “with the topic of a possible new candidate on the agenda,” Ally and Olivia Beavers report. The drama is playing out on the airwaves. Riedel fired at Majewski, with an ad calling him a “backstabbing loser” for allegedly calling Trump an “idiot.” (Majewski called the ad “desperate.”) In addition to running the ad in-district, Riedel’s campaign told the Toledo Blade’s Mike Brice that it is also airing on cable in West Palm Beach — which covers Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.
| | PRESIDENTIAL — IOWA — Trump maintains a commanding lead among his primary opponents in Iowa, per a CBS News/YouGov poll. The former president is pulling 58 percent of support. DeSantis is in second with 22 percent, and Haley has 13 percent. (478 likely voters, Dec. 8-15, MoE +/- 6.1 percentage points). … NEW HAMPSHIRE — Trump also still has the lead in New Hampshire, according to another CBS News/YouGov survey. He’s at 44 percent, followed by Haley with 29 percent. DeSantis and Christie have 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively. (459 likely voters, Dec. 8-15, MoE +/- 5.5 percentage points). UT-Sen — A poll from Conservative Values for Utah, a super PAC encouraging Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) to run for Senate, shows him in the lead in a hypothetical primary against former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, per The Salt Lake Tribune’s Bryan Schott. The poll, conducted by Guidant Polling and Strategy, shows Curtis with 40 percent of support over Wilson’s 11 percent and Staggs’ 6 percent (600 likely voters, Nov. 28-Dec. 5, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points). Curtis has not decided if he’s running for Senate, but others are already considering running for his seat.
| | | | GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | — Jeff Roe, a top strategist for Never Back Down, the super PAC boosting DeSantis’ presidential bid, is the latest in a long line of officials to leave the group. He announced his departure after The Washington Post published an article about problems the group has been causing with DeSantis’ campaign. — Daria Dawson has been named executive director for progressive nonprofit America Votes. She replaces Sara Schreiber, who left the organization to be chief of staff of Biden’s reelection campaign. — Henry Berger will replace Doug Kellner, the co-chair of the New York State Board of Elections and a top elections official in the state. Kellner was ousted by his fellow Democrats after he “broke with other Democrats over the reliability of new voting machines,” per POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “Who welcomes a subpoena? You don’t wake up every day and say, ‘I hope I get a subpoena.’” — New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who is the subject of an FBI investigation. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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