Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Can big money power a Haley surprise?

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By Eli Okun

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WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS READING — “‘Trump Knows What He’s Doing’: The Creator of Godwin’s Law Says the Hitler Comparison Is Apt,” by Calder McHugh

WHEN HITLER COMPARISONS AREN’T ENOUGH — Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) told The Independent’s Eric Michael Garcia that DONALD TRUMP was actually too nice in saying that migrants are “poisoning the blood” of America. “I’m mad he wasn’t even tougher than that,” Tuberville said. “When you see what’s happening at the border? We’re being overrun. They’re taking us over.”

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a town hall, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023, in Nevada, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Nikki Haley is taking on Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump with tougher comments and new ads. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

HALEY HEARTY — “That’s the sound of us surging,” NIKKI HALEY told voters on the campaign trail in Iowa today, per ABC’s Ben Siegel.

She was referring to the onslaught of attacks that have come her way from Trump and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS as she’s risen in the presidential race — but she might as well have been talking about what she’s dishing out, too. Though Trump is still out far ahead of the field, Haley said she’s going after both of them on the trail for the first time: “If these guys are going to lie about me, I’m going to tell the truth about them.” She again hammered DeSantis for campaigning with “anti-Israel” Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.).

And her Stand for America Fund super PAC is going up with a new seven-figure ad buy in New Hampshire that proclaims, “Trump knows Haley’s the only one who can beat him,” Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. It comes the same day that Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC launched an ad in the state hitting Haley for gas taxes.

But the real money may come from the Koch machine, which had $70 million on hand as of this summer that it can pump into turnout operations for Haley, as Bloomberg’s Stephanie Lai reports. Americans for Prosperity’s momentous decision to back Haley will give her a significant grassroots boost.

Will it all be too little, too late? To whatever degree Haley has consolidated support from the non-Trump wing of the GOP, she’s still running roughly on par with DeSantis in many polls (and has to fend off CHRIS CHRISTIE, for that matter, in New Hampshire). As Trump hits Iowa again today, Haley and DeSantis risk being distracted by each other and letting the former president sail through the middle, CNN’s Eric Bradner, Daniel Strauss, David Wright and Steve Contorno report.

And even the much-vaunted Koch operation can only go so far if voters are already locked in for Trump. There’s still some time for late-breaking minds to be made up in the last few weeks before votes are cast. But tagging along with door-knockers in Iowa, Bloomberg finds lots of slammed doors, Trump diehards and DeSantis leaners.

“In the time of Trump,” Lai writes, “the mighty network backed by CHARLES KOCH isn’t nearly the kingmaker it used to be.”

 

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SENATE LATEST — Without offering many specifics, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said today that negotiations over a Ukraine aid/immigration policy package will still “take more time,” but “we must succeed.” He also pledged not to send the chamber home for the holidays until its final votes of the year are finished — including confirming 11 more Pentagon nominations that have been gummed up by Tuberville and working out a short-term FAA reauthorization. Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) told CNN’s Manu Raju that he’s still holding up the latter over concern about Ukraine aid.

SURVEY SAYS — Despite being seen as the underdog, Rep. ANDY KIM’s (D-N.J.) internal poll has him leading New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY by 23 points in the Senate primary, per the New Jersey Globe. … A new Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania has President JOE BIDEN leading Trump 42% to 41%, a statistical tie.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

BETTENDORF, IOWA - DECEMBER 18: Republican presidential candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks to guests during the Scott County Fireside Chat at the Tanglewood Hills Pavilion on December 18, 2023 in Bettendorf, Iowa. Iowa Republicans will be the first to select their party's nomination for the 2024 presidential race when they go to caucus on January 15, 2024. (Photo by Scott   Olson/Getty Images)

Ron DeSantis is under scrutiny for the first bill he signed into law as Florida governor. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

1. MUCK READ: The very first new state law DeSantis made reality was the legalization of smokable medical marijuana. But behind the scenes, the story of that law’s passage looks somewhat swampy, belying his campaign promises to clean up politics, CNN’s Steve Contorno, Scott Glover, Randi Kaye and Nelli Black report in a new investigation. Marijuana interests played a big part in funding his gubernatorial campaign — and after he signed this bill into law, DeSantis “quietly fought to ensure only a handful of companies could sell marijuana.” His presidential campaign maintained in a statement that “donors have no influence on policy decisions.”

2. THE AGE-OLD QUESTION: At the White House, the question of how intense the 81-year-old president’s schedule should be has been causing tensions, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. Biden insists that he feels young and has the energy for a packed agenda. But some aides worry that he tires himself out, and they — along with first lady JILL BIDEN — try to get him to rest more and eat better. The first lady is “deeply involved” in his schedule.

3. DEFAMATION WATCH: “Trump Is Scrambling to Block One Particular Expert Witness in His New E. Jean Carroll Case,” by The Daily Beast’s Jose Pagliery: “[T]he last person Trump’s lawyers want to see is the court expert who put a hefty nine-figure price tag on [RUDY] GIULIANI’s misbehavior. The target of their ire? A Northwestern University marketing professor who analyzes social media trends. Court records show that the very same day ASHLEE HUMPHREYS testified in D.C. at Giuliani’s defamation trial last week, a Trump lawyer in New Jersey asked a federal judge in New York to block Humphreys from testifying against the former president.”

4. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: In some of her first detailed comments since becoming the GOP nominee in a New York special congressional election, Republican MAZI MELESA PILIP tries to stake out some nuanced moderate ground in an interview with Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel. Pilip says that though she’s pro-life, she thinks abortion is a personal choice and opposes a national ban. As for Trump, “nobody’s above the law.”

Across the country, the Democratic primary to replace Rep. GRACE NAPOLITANO (D-Calif.) has gotten crowded, the L.A. Times’ Anabel Sosa reports. Wealthy former Rep. GIL CISNEROS is seeking a comeback in the San Gabriel Valley, but state Sens. BOB ARCHULETA and SUSAN RUBIO could stand in his way, along with MARY ANN LUTZ and GREGORY HAFIF.

 

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5. NATO NEGATIVITY: As the U.S. dithers over passing new aid to Ukraine, European allies are beginning to plan — and worry — for a potential future in which Russia actually wins the war and takes over at least part of Ukraine, Bloomberg’s Natalia Drozdiak, Milda Seputyte and Peter Martin report. It’s a prospect the West hasn’t seriously contemplated since the war’s early days, but a resurgent Moscow could challenge NATO, and the global damage to U.S. credibility as a reliable partner would be worse than the pullout from Afghanistan.

And as Sweden seeks to join NATO, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN is saying that it needs Congress to approve Ankara’s purchase of F-16s from the U.S. in order for Turkey to ratify Sweden’s accession, per the AP.

6. IMMIGRATION FILES: A heavier surge of migrants — and an accompanying humanitarian crisis — is hitting the U.S.-Mexico border, where more than 10,000 people have crossed in just the past day, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports from Eagle Pass, Texas.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is launching a new refugee program today that gives Americans the opportunity to sponsor specific individuals or families to come to the U.S., Reuters’ Ted Hesson and Mica Rosenberg report. The idea is to “help families reunite and involve more everyday Americans in resettlement efforts.”

7. COUNTING THE RINGS: “US moves to protect old growth forests as climate change threatens their survival,” by AP’s Matthew Brown: “It would be the first nationwide amendment to U.S. Forest Service management plans in the agency’s 118-year history.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Julian Assange’s last chance to avoid extradition to the U.S. may come in February.

Aidan Maese-Czeropski is under possible criminal investigation by the Capitol Police.

Chris Christie will publish a new book in February called “What Would Reagan Do?”

Bill Richardson’s center is working behind the scenes to help free Hamas-held hostages.

MEDIA MOVES — Bob Cohn will be CEO of The Baltimore Banner. He currently is president of The Economist and previously was president of The Atlantic. … Laura Weiss is joining Punchbowl to co-author The Vault and cover tax, economic policy and financial services. She previously was at Roll Call.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Viraj Parikh is launching a consulting and advisory business, VP Ventures LLC. He most recently was detailed to the VP’s office to advise on domestic economic policy, and is a Treasury, African Development Bank and NSC alum.

TRANSITIONS — The Export-Import Bank has added Brad Belzak as SVP and chief of staff and Elizabeth Lewis as SVP for comms. Belzak previously was director of homeland defense integration at DOD. Lewis most recently was director of comms for then-Austin Mayor Steve Adler, and is an Obama 2012 alum. … Yusuf Nekzad is now legislative director for Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.). He most recently was legislative affairs coordinator in the office of the undersecretary for infrastructure at the Department of Energy. … Kia Smith is joining Mothers Out Front as senior director of comms. She previously was senior director of comms at Faith in Public Life.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Josh Hammer, senior editor-at-large at Newsweek and host of “The Josh Hammer Show,” and Shir Cohen, a graduate student in real estate development and urbanism at the University of Miami, got married Sunday at Trump National Doral Miami. They met in Miami. Pics

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