Monday, September 11, 2023

In Vietnam, Biden bets big on closer ties with Beijing’s neighbor

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Sep 11, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

With help from Doug Palmer

QUICK FIX

— President Joe Biden met with senior officials in Vietnam on Monday after upgrading ties with the Southeast Asian nation as the White House moves to capitalize on regional unease over China’s growing aggression.

— The Department of Commerce wants more information about Huawei Technologies’ new flagship smartphone amid concerns from Western lawmakers and analysts that the device could violate U.S. export controls.

It’s Monday, Sept. 11. Welcome to Morning Trade! Don’t quote me on it but I think we’ve made it past the horrendous D.C. heat wave. Who else can’t wait for changing colors, carving jack-o'-lanterns and the start of the holiday season? Good thing pumpkin patches are already preparing to welcome pickers. Tell us about your autumn plans or send us your trade news at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can also follow us on X: @_arihawkins, @gavinbade and @tradereporter.

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Driving the day

EXPANDING TIES IN BEIJING’S BACKYARD: Joe Biden is wrapping up his second day in Vietnam as the White House seizes on China’s financial slowdown and military aggression to frame the U.S. as a more reliable economic partner for countries in the Indo-Pacific.

“I don’t want to contain China. I just want to make sure that we have a relationship with China that is on the up and up, squared away,” Biden said at a news conference in Hanoi on Sunday, where he accused Beijing of "beginning to change some of the rules of the game" when it came to international trade.

The American president joined a meeting with CEOs in Vietnam on Monday, alongside Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính and spoke with President Võ Văn Thưởng, according to the White House schedule. Biden traveled to the region over the weekend to formally elevate the countries’ diplomatic relationship.

The new partnership between Vietnam and Washington is part of the administration's efforts "to demonstrate to our Indo-Pacific partners and to the world, the United States is a Pacific nation and we're not going anywhere,” Biden said at a news conference following a meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong, head of Vietnam's Communist Party.

Biden also pledged deeper ties with India in a joint statement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday, and used this weekend’s G20 summit to discuss his request to Congress to raise the lending power of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in a bid to counter China’s influence over emerging markets.

China-threat looms: But while U.S. officials have openly stressed the Asia sojourn was about rallying allies to work together on climate change and development on a shifting global economy, they privately hinted that better ties with New Delhi and Hanoi would boost America’s regional position, per our Alex Ward.

Deliverables clinched: The president inked deals with Vietnam on semiconductors and critical minerals on Sunday, and elevated Washington’s standing to the highest level shared by China and Russia in Vietnam’s hierarchy of diplomatic relations.

The announcements are bound to elicit a response from China, which opposes any show of closer ties between Washington and countries in the region.

Biden said his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping “has his hands full right now” with a difficult economic problem and said, “I don’t think it’s going to cause China to invade Taiwan, in fact maybe the opposite, probably doesn’t have the same capacity as it had before.”

Both sides: Top Chinese officials, possibly including Xi, are expected in Vietnam in the coming days or weeks, per Reuters, as the country angles to maintain its critical economic relationship with China while deepening trade with Washington.

Hanoi has shared U.S. concerns about China’s growing aggressiveness in the South China Sea. But Vietnam is also secretly planning to buy Russian arms, a move that would violate Western sanctions, according to a report from The New York Times.

U.S. SEEKING INFO ON HUAWEI CHIP: The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security is seeking more information about a China-developed chip powering Huawei's latest flagship smartphone that Republican lawmakers warn could violate U.S. trade rules.

“We are working to obtain more information on the character and composition of the purported 7nm chip,” a Commerce official told Morning Trade on Friday. The statement came as Huawei launched pre-sales of the Mate 60 Pro smartphone, which is capable of 5G technology and rivals the world’s most advanced devices, including the latest iPhones.

China hailed the phone as a signal of Beijing’s rapidly advancing technology sector, but Western officials and analysts remain skeptical, and contend the device likely relied on American technology, perhaps in violation of U.S. export controls.

House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) called to end all technology exports to Huawei and China's top semiconductor firm, and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said at a briefing at the U.S. embassy in Hague that it looks like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp had violated U.S. sanctions.

The U.S. placed Huawei on a trade blacklist in 2019 over concerns the company could use its technology to spy for the Chinese government. But the U.S. granted licenses to allow American firms to sell to the company up until January 2023, including Qualcomm, which received permission to sell 4G smartphone chips to Huawei in 2020.

“Let’s be clear: export controls are just one tool in the U.S. government’s toolbox to address the national security threats presented by the PRC. The restrictions in place since 2019 have knocked Huawei down and forced it to reinvent itself — at a substantial cost to the PRC government,” the Commerce official added.

What to watch: The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is holding a hearing tomorrow that will include testimony from former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission Jay Clayton, as members escalates scrutiny over how U.S. investment in China could undermine national security.

FIFTH IPEF ROUND UNDERWAY: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has been clear she would like to reach “Clean Economy” and “Fair Economy” trade agreements as part of talks on the proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework by the time Biden hosts APEC leaders in November for the group’s annual summit. Her department has already concluded a supply chain agreement with the 13 other IPEF countries that was published last week.

As IPEF negotiators meet for a fifth round of talks this week in Bangkok, Thailand, it’s less clear what portions of the USTR-led negotiations on the broad “trade” pillar can be completed. But USTR spokesperson Angela Perez said the agency was “working hard to make meaningful progress and tangible results in our IPEF negotiations with the APEC summit in mind.”

OUTSIDE VOICES

TRADE POLICY VETS URGE MORE AGGRESSIVE ASIA STRATEGY: Two U.S. trade policy veterans are calling on the Biden administration to develop a more aggressive strategy to expand U.S. exports and write the rules of trade in the Asian region

“It would be regrettable to look back at this time in history as the moment when we ceded regional trade leadership to China,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, which produced the new report shared first with Morning Trade.

“China’s ambitious trade agenda should be ringing alarm bells for any policymaker who is concerned about supply chain issues or geopolitical influence,” said Clete Willems, a former Trump White House official who co-wrote the report. The analysis builds on their previous publication aimed at overcoming the Biden administration’s reluctance to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership by outlining 12 areas where it could be modernized.

That remains the trade policy pair’s top recommendation. They also offer three other ideas:

Begin a second round of IPEF negotiations to build on the results expected this year. That could include deeper supply chain commitments and even tariff cuts — an area the Biden administration has refused to touch so far.

Expand membership in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to include new members like the U.K., Taiwan and other countries in the Indo-Pacific or Western Hemisphere.

Develop a new template for trade agreements, drawing on existing agreements and input from a wide range of groups. That could start with a series of bilateral agreements or a regional deal with a small group of close U.S. partners such as Japan, Taiwan, Australia or South Korea.

USTR rebuttal: Due to a computer glitch, we received USTR’s response to a business group’s criticism of the Biden administration’s trade policy too late for publication last week.

“Granted, this new approach to trade may be uncomfortable for some,” USTR’s Perez said in an email, responding to remarks from the National Foreign Trade Council. “But the last several years has shown us that the old approach leaves our workers vulnerable, our supply chains less secure, and our global economy more fragile.”

“Under Ambassador Tai's leadership, we have launched three ambitious, high standard trade negotiations with our Indo-Pacific partners, Taiwan, and Kenya, all of which are addressing the pressing challenges we're facing in today's world,” Perez added.

USMCA PUSHED TO EXPAND: Costa Rica’s minister of foreign trade and investment Manuel Tovar Rivera told POLITICO his country has “matured” beyond its free trade pact with Washington and should join the North American free trade deal known as the USMCA.

“With all due respect to other CAFTA [Central America Free Trade Agreement] members, Costa Rica has matured in terms of governance, in terms of institutions, to the levels of the USMCA, while the CAFTA agreement, also at the same time, has not been able to mature. It's been more than six years since the institutional bodies of CAFTA have met,” Rivera said.

More from our chat here. (For Pros!) 

International Overnight

— The Biden administration is vying to bolster economic ties with emerging economies, but economists and diplomats from developing nations surveyed by POLITICO expressed deep skepticism about U.S. intentions, per a comprehensive report from Gavin Bade.

— India agreed to eliminate a retaliatory tariff on U.S. frozen turkeys and turkey parts as part of a deal announced Friday to resolve a WTO dispute brought by the United States in 2012. It also agreed to reduce the basic tariff on those products from 30 percent to 5 percent.

— Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday defended the United States’ decision to accept the joint statement from G20 leaders on Russia’s war in Ukraine that did not replicate the group’s previous stance condemning Russia for its invasion, Kelly Garrity reports.

— The International Trade Commission determined Friday that there is a reasonable indication that imports of mattresses from more than a dozen regions including Bulgaria, Burma, India, Italy, Mexico and Taiwan present a material threat to American industry.

The ITC voted 5-0 Friday to continue anti-dumping and countervailing duties on aluminum foil imports from China for another five years.

— The Chinese government recently expanded its ban of iPhones to local government and state-owned companies in a signal Beijing is pushing back on its reliance on technology from Washington, per Nikkei Asia.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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