Thursday, August 10, 2023

🍖Meat Down, Carbs Up – Here’s How the Food Market Has Shifted So Far this Year

Good morning. Harsh weather conditions in Asia point to a potential global shortage of rice...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Harsh weather conditions in Asia point to a potential global shortage of rice. Prices for Thailand white rice 5% broken have soared to their highest levels since 2011, having soared over 50 percent sine the start of the year. If this trend continues, the price could even go back to its old 2008 highs.

Meanwhile, prices for chicken are so low that many producers in the United States are closing down plants. That could lead to higher chicken prices down the road, but also set up for shortages there in the future if more cuts than necessary are made today.

In short, carbs are getting more expensive and meat prices may see a decline in the months ahead. For investors, the current trends are moving in opposite directions, and will revert back in time. And it goes to show that owning some stocks that play to the agricultural industry can play to these wild price swings over time.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,123.36 -0.54%
S&P 4,467.71 -0.70%
NASDAQ 13,722.02 -1.17%
*As of market close
Markets dropped on Wednesday, closing near their low, ahead of the latest inflation report.
Oil rose 1.6 percent, closing at $84.22 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.5 percent, last going for $1,950 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally declined, with bitcoin at $29,395 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Former Market Darling Looks Ready to Turn Around
Some sectors of the market are cyclical, moving in and out of favor with investors. Typically, a stock that gets overbought will see a big correction. And stocks that get oversold will come roaring back.

In today's market, looking for oversold opportunities looks like a good way to buck a possible market pullback after a strong run this year. Investors who buy such companies may see some volatility, but could make big returns in a few months to a year.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)
William Montgomery, a director at Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), recently bought 50,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 77 percent, and came to a total cost of $1.33 million.

This marks the first insider buy since March, when one of the company's co-CEOs bought 15,835 shares for just under $401,000. There have been nearly two dozen insider buys over the past two years, with no insider sales.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Shopify (SHOP)
E-commerce platform company Shopify (SHOP) has soared nearly 60 percent in the past year. One trader sees a further rally ahead for shares in the next seven months.

That's based on the March 2024 $70 calls. With 217 days until expiration, 11,583 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 171, for a 68-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $4.90 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Bond Market Still Wary of Banks

The banking sector has been quiet since the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred in March. However, ratings agency Moody's (MCO) came out on Tuesday and downgraded the bonds of a number of banks. That indicates that the banks aren't quite healthy yet, and that a recovering share price for a bank may not fully price in potential dangers ahead.
Mortgage Rates Hit 21 Year Highs

30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 7.09 percent from 6.93 percent last week. Loans for first-time borrowers by the FHA hit 7.02 percent, the highest level since 2002. Home applications continue to decline as rates rise, with demand down 27 percent from a year ago and down 3 percent in the past week.
Consumer Prices Drop in China

The world's second-largest economy, China, saw consumer prices drop in July. That's the first drop since the pandemic era, and a sign that the country's economy is weakening. That's in line with other data out of the country so far this year, such as industrial production.
Lyft Looking to Phase Out Surge Pricing

Ride-sharing company Lyft (LYFT) has been cutting fares, with revenue per rider declining 5 percent quarter-over-quarter. The company is also looking at how to remove surge pricing, which hampers demand for ride services, even if it better incentivizes drivers.
WeWork Raises Doubts About Staying in Business

Co-working space provider WeWork (WE) says that "substantial doubt exists" about their ability to stay in business given ongoing losses and projected cash needs. The company has a plan that could allow it to stay in business over the next 12 months. Shares are down over 85 percent so far this year. At its peak valuation as a privately-held company, WeWork was valued at $47 billion.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
AXON 13.905%
AKAM 8.468%
FLT 6.478%
CF 4.857%
CRL 4.829%
BOTTOM
NVDA 4.155%
PARA 3.945%
CTLT 3.747%
AVGO 3.356%
UHS 3.133%

Quote of the Day
I think you're just seeing a little bit of a breather. I think we got very overbought, priced to perfection. There are still a lot of macro headwinds. .... So I think is this a little bit warranted.
- Victoria Greene, chief investment officer G Squared Private Wealth, on the market's pullback following a strong rally to the start of the year that saw the Nasdaq rise by over 20 percent.

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