News: Putin hopes for a reset with Africa

Monday, July 24, 2023

Putin hopes for a reset with Africa

Jul 24, 2023

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Good morning and welcome to Global Insider. Eric Bazail-Eimil here, a POLITICO fellow on the National Security team. Let’s dive into the latest power plays on the world stage.

African leaders are headed to St. Petersburg this week for the second Russia-Africa Summit, a major opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin to shore up ties with the continent after recent stumbles.

This year’s summit, expected to bring delegations from over 40 countries, comes on the heels of Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the Wagner Group’s aborted mutiny last month. It also follows last week’s announcement that Putin won't attend August’s BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Before last month, Russia’s ascendance in Africa seemed secure. Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had worked overtime to deepen their personal relationships with African heads of state, and with the help of mercenaries from the Wagner Group, secured valuable security partnerships with resource-rich countries. Those relationships have paid off for Moscow amid the war in Ukraine, giving the Kremlin friends at the United Nations.

But cracks are starting to appear. Putin’s standing is still shaky in the wake of the Wagner mutiny and reports of atrocities committed by the Russian mercenaries on the continent have raised new doubts toward Russia and Putin.

Russia’s departure from the grain deal, which helped move agricultural goods out of Ukraine’s ports vital for food-insecure countries, is also making some African countries even more dependent on Russia in the face of expected global food shortages, strengthening Putin’s hand. African leaders have largely not criticized Russia publicly for its departure from the grain deal, but as global food prices already begin to climb, they may not be able to hold their tongues for much longer.

Your host is also keen to see if bad blood lingers between Putin and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa after this past week’s row over the August BRICS summit. South Africa, which would have been mandated to comply with an International Criminal Court order for Putin’s arrest on war crimes charges, ultimately asked Putin not to attend in person, according to South African outlet News 24. The BRICS summit sparked a brief dispute between Moscow and Pretoria.

THE VIEW FROM THE WEST: Washington and Paris have stepped up their rhetorical focus on the continent. At the Aspen Security Forum last week, CIA Director Bill Burns said Africa was “a challenge we can’t afford to neglect.”

They’ve also turned up the heat. French President Emmanuel Macron called Russia a “destabilizing power in Africa” last month and even tried to invite himself to next month's BRICS summit. And American lawmakers have even proposed moving the U.S.-Africa summit, scheduled to occur in Johannesburg in December, to another country as punishment for South Africa’s ties with Russia, as Reuters reported last week.

For many Africanists, however, pearl-clutching in Washington and Paris at Russia’s entreaties to the continent seems hypocritical given their historical attitude toward the continent. Russia’s “destabilizing” presence on the continent, they note, pales in contrast to the many coups and insurgencies Paris and Washington have supported, and the kleptocratic regimes they enabled, under the auspices of Françafrique and anti-communism.

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The Week Ahead

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Oceania this week, making stops in Australia, New Zealand and Tonga.

MONDAY:
Taiwan hosts its annual Han Kuang and Wan An military exercises and drills Monday through Saturday. The drills, which include defending the island's main international airport from an attack, stopping amphibious landings and ensuring sea lanes stay open in response to a mock blockade by China, will also include shelter-in-place and evacuation drills in districts across the island for the first time ever.

TUESDAY:
The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels to discuss imports of Ukrainian foodstuffs, as well as difficulties experienced by Romanian farmers.

THURSDAY:
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs holds a hearing on the “next steps in the international response” on Haiti.

Russian and African leaders gather in St. Petersburg for the second Russia-Africa Summit Thursday and Friday to discuss Africa-Russia business and development deals, security policy and humanitarian challenges.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with U.S. president Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The two are expected to discuss Ukraine, North Africa, China and Italy’s presidency of the G-7.

FRIDAY:

Environment and climate ministers from G20 member states gather in Chennai, India to discuss climate policy.

RIGHT COMES UP SHORT IN SPANISH ELECTION

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is set to stay in power after none of the country’s political parties won enough seats in Sunday’s snap election to secure a governing majority on their own, as our colleague Aitor Hernández-Morales reports.

Though the conservative Popular Party won the most seats, its prospective coalition partner, the far-right Vox party, did not win enough seats to cobble together a government. The country’s regional parties from the Basque Country and Catalonia have said they will not support a conservative minority government.

Sánchez, who came to power in 2019 after cutting deals with regional parties, gambled that a snap election would thwart growing momentum for the country’s right-wing parties after his own Socialists suffered losses in May’s municipal and regional elections. Sánchez’s Socialists and the left-wing Sumar coalition could now cut new deals with regional parties and create a minority government.

ISRAEL AND THE JUDICIARY

The Knesset passed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reform measures, which would limit the power of Israel’s Supreme Court to review Israeli government policies and declare them reasonable or unreasonable. Supporters of the reforms, which are a top priority for Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, say the measures are needed to curtail the power of unelected activist judges.

The vote comes as Israelis in major cities have protested against the measure, decrying the reform effort as a threat to Israeli democratic institutions. Biden and U.S. officials have increasingly warned Netanyahu against pursuing the judicial reform plan, saying that his government was not building “consensus” around the plan. Senior Israeli military officers have also warned that the policy could result in thousands of reserve members and experts declining military service, threatening Israel’s military readiness. Businesses also went on strike ahead of today’s vote.

ISRAEL AND MOROCCO

Israel announced it will recognize Morocco’s claim to the contested Western Sahara territory last week, and Morocco’s government has invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an official state visit, two significant developments in the public warming of ties between the countries.

For Rabat, Israeli support provides more legitimacy to its claim to the Western Sahara territory, a phosphate-rich stretch of land that the indigenous Sahrawi people have also claimed as an independent country. Disputes over Morocco’s claim over the territory prompted Rabat to boycott the African Union until 2017. Only the United States and Israel currently recognize Morocco’s claim. The U.S. agreed to do so in exchange for Morocco finally officially recognizing Israel.

For Netanyahu’s embattled right-wing government, the prospect of a historic state visit is a needed boon as the country deals with the protests over its judicial reform efforts. It also provides Israel with one more critical Arab partner in the region amid increasing Iranian threats and conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel and Morocco have long had a complicated relationship, with Morocco only officially recognizing Israel in December 2020. But Israel and Morocco have had informal relations for decades. The recognition, a major foreign policy triumph for former U.S. President Donald Trump, came on the heels of similar recognitions by Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan as part of the Abraham Accords.

THE LATEST ON U.S. SOLDIER IN NORTH KOREA

The deputy commander of the United Nations Command in North Korea confirmed Monday that a “conversation” with North Korea “has commenced” over Travis King, the American junior enlisted soldier who voluntarily crossed into North Korea during a civilian tour of the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea, according to the Associated Press.

Over the weekend, U.S. lawmakers raised concerns over King’s well-being. “I’m sure that he’s not being treated very well. I think it was a serious mistake on his part and I hope we can get him back,” Rep. Michael McCaul, the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview with ABC’s Martha Raddatz Sunday.

Pyongyang had not responded to requests for information about King’s well-being from the U.S., the United Nations, or the U.S.’s diplomatic interlocutors, Sweden. The silence comes as North Korea lashes out at the United States for its deployment of a nuclear submarine currently docked in Busan, South Korea. U.S. officials had defended the sub’s presence on the Korean Peninsula last week and maintained they were continuing to contact North Korea through “multiple channels.”

On Saturday, North Korea launched two cruise missiles into the Sea of Japan, the second test in a week. The launches follow comments from North Korean officials declaring that the Hermit Kingdom has initiated a “military offensive” in response to U.S. aggression.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

COUNTEROFFENSIVE HALFWAY: Blinken said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Sunday that Ukraine has successfully taken back 50 percent of the territory Russia seized since its invasion started last February, though he warned the remaining half would require a “very hard fight” to reclaim.

BOLSONARO WANES: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is struggling to maintain relevance and lead opposition to the government of incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Associated Press’ Eléonore Hughes reports. Bolsonaro, who left office earlier this year after a slim electoral defeat, faces multiple criminal investigations and members of his own party are breaking with him on key policy provisions.

U.S.-CHINA CULTURAL RELATIONS COOLING TOO: Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, cultural exchange between the U.S. and China has reached a low point, as tourism, academic dialogues and other markers of warming ties have seen sharp decreases, according to The Guardian’s Michael Goodier and Amy Hawkins.

SANCTIONS EVASION: Our own Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov and Douglas Busvine report this morning on how China has used loopholes in Western sanctions to send weaponry and hardware to the Russian military.

PEOPLE AND POWER

Netanyahu is “doing excellently,” his office says, after undergoing an emergency pacemaker implant over the weekend.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko Friday. Prystaiko had criticized Zelenskyy for “sarcastic” comments in response to U.K.’s Defence Minister Ben Wallace’s suggestion that Ukraine should express more gratitude for Western military aid.

BRAIN FOOD

The NYT’s Vivian Lee and Leily Nikounazar report on how record-breaking heat and water shortages in Iran are already starting to affect daily life in one of the most-climate sensitive regions of the world.

Ilya Gridneff, Emily Schultheis and Dmytro Drabyk report for POLITICO about how the surrogacy industry in Ukraine continues amid ongoing warfare and how families and surrogates navigate the conflict.

ONE FUN THING

THE BARBENHEIMER PHENOMENON: WSJ’s Ben Cohen profiles Ruth Handler, the “Oppenheimer of Barbie” who blew up the toy industry forever with her earth-shaking creation.

Thanks to editors Emma Anderson and Heidi Vogt, and producer Sophie Gardner.

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