Friday, July 21, 2023

👇Inflation’s Coming Down, But Shrinkflation Isn’t

Good morning. While markets are happy that inflation is dropping, now hitting 3 percent on a year...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While markets are happy that inflation is dropping, now hitting 3 percent on a year-over-year basis from a high of nearly 10 percent last year, inflation isn't over yet. And even slow changes over time can have a big impact on your purchasing power.

That's why many companies continue to shrink package sizes. Dubbed a new look for marketing purposes, buyers of new packages of goods often pay the same price for just a little bit less. While it's not the same as seeing the sticker shock of rising prices, when broken out per unit, ounce, or whatever unit of measurement, it's a sign that inflation is still with us.

The good news? Investors can own the companies shrinking their packaging and continuing to rack up the big bucks. That's why so many consumer goods companies are able to outpace inflation, and pass it on to shareholders with dividends and buybacks.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,225.18 +0.47%
S&P 4,534.87 -0.68%
NASDAQ 14,063.31 -2.05%
*As of market close
Markets trade mixed on Thursday, with the Dow up for the ninth consecutive day.
Oil rose 0.4 percent, closing at $75.63 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.5, last going for $1,972 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $29,736 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Invest With Companies Pushing for a Top Customer Experience
Some sectors of the market are competitive with a number of companies working hard for market share. More mature industries often have fewer competitors, but can increase their business by improving the experience for customers.

That's especially true when it can do so without significantly raising prices or otherwise having a trade-off. By improving customer experience, a company can build long-term brand loyalty. That's hard to measure in terms of a dollar valuation, but it does make a great company stand out.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Lockheed Martin (LMT)
John Donovan, a director at Lockheed Martin (LMT), recently added 548 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 19 percent, and came to a total cost of $250,476.

The director bought 508 shares in April, also valued at about $250,000, and twice more over the prior two quarters before that. Otherwise, company insiders have largely been small sellers of shares, concentrated at the EVP level of the firm.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
Iron ore producer Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has seen shares drop nearly 10 percent since the start of the year. One trader sees shares moving higher in the coming months.

That's based on the October $60 calls. With 91 days until expiration, 10,844 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 125, for an 87-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $7.10 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Home Sales Hit Slowest Pace in a Decade

14 out of every 1,000 homes in the United States changed ownership in the first half of 2023, a rate just over 1 percent. The same period in 2019 saw 19 out of every 1,000, just shy of 2 percent. That's the slowest rate in over a decade. In an active market, it a more normal amount is closer to 40-50 home sales for every 1,000.
Web3 and Crypto Projects Suffer as Funds Move to AI

Venture capital is pouring into artificial intelligence projects this year. Prior years have been strong for projects in cryptocurrencies and Web3 technologies, but now the pace of investment has stalled out. Investors prefer the immediate potential gains that can be had from generative AI, rather than longer-term projects in those alternative technologies.
Senior Employees Stick with Work From Home Policies

While most companies have ended the pandemic-era policy of working entirely from home with a hybrid model, nearly half of senior employees at companies continue to work from home. Some individuals even prefer keeping remote work over the prospect of raises or bonuses.
Macy's Bets on Private Brands

Department store chain Macy's (M) is launching its own private brands, which will allow it to better compete. The company has struggled in recent years, and recently cut its full-year revenue expectations. Private brands potentially offer higher profit margins for the retailer.
Tesla Sees Margin Hit Thanks to Price Cuts

Tesla Motors (TSLA) hit a record $25 billion in revenue in the second quarter, an increase of 20 percent over the prior year. But the electric vehicle manufacturer saw its margins decline to 18.2 percent from 25 percent in the same quarter of 2022. The margin decline is likely due to the price cuts the carmaker has undertaken this year.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
SIRI 29.326%
ZION 9.634%
JNJ 5.777%
ALL 5.156%
PGR 4.416%
BOTTOM
DFS 15.958%
TSLA 9.401%
NFLX 8.62%
EFX 7.973%
MPWR 7.566%

Quote of the Day
Bank earnings are better than feared and are pushing the episodic crisis from the spring further into the rearview mirror and (thus far) continue to trade like a soft landing will occur. The commentary from CEO's mirrors what the retail sales control group told us today – which is spending is largely intact, despite some credit normalization.
- George Catrambone, head of fixed income and trading at DWS Group, on how this quarter's bank earnings indicate that the spring crisis is unlikely to flare up again anytime soon.

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That's why Zacks just released a Special Report that names and explains 5 tickers to lead the way.

Among them is a "Sleeper Stock" that is still cruising under Wall Street's radar.

All 5 have exceptional profit potential. There couldn't be a better time for this investor briefing.

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