Wednesday, June 21, 2023

💵Watch Out for a Rolling Recession – So You Can Profit from It

Good morning. Europe has slid into a recession. That's in spite of energy prices, which have come...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Europe has slid into a recession. That's in spite of energy prices, which have come down over the past year, and where last year's price jump was particularly hard on the Eurozone, which had to scrounge to find energy sources outside of Russia. And the region slid into a recession even amid a stimulus program that was in place.

To some extent, this looks similar to the U.S. in the first half of last year. The first two quarters of 2022 had slightly declining GDP, which has historically been the definition of a recession. While that was largely ignored, declining inflation and slightly faster growth – not to mention a strong labor market – make the U.S. look attractive right now.

Now, we're seeing China slow down as well. That's a sign that different parts of the world may be on different parts of an economic cycle. Investors should keep an eye out for global opportunities, particularly in slow regions where investors may be ignoring good long-term growth opportunities here.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,053.87 -0.72%
S&P 4,388.71 -0.47%
NASDAQ 13,667.29 -0.16%
*As of market close
Stocks closed lower on Tuesday, following the long weekend.
Oil dropped 1.2 percent, closing at $70.94 per barrel.
Gold also declined 1.2 percent, ending at $1948.10.
Cryptocurrencies rallied, with bitcoin at $27,926 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Look for Pullback Plays in AI Stocks
It's likely that the AI trend has staying power. But many AI stocks have gone nearly vertical in recent weeks. That suggests the space is ripe for a pullback that could bring down valuations quickly, and set up a further run later in the year.

Such a move already occurred after a short rally in AI stocks to start the year. Now, investors have more companies working on AI initiatives to invest in, which creates a better watch list of opportunities.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: NextEra Energy (NEE)
John Ketchum, President and CEO at NextEra Energy (NEE), recently bought 13,600 shares. The buy increased his stake by 8 percent, and came to a total cost just over $1 million.

This marks the first insider activity since March, when a company director bought 10,000 shares, paying about $700,000 to do so. And another major holder bought 13,200 shares in February, for a total cost just over $995,500. There has been one small insider sale in recent months.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: EQT Corporation (EQT)
Oil and gas exploration and development firm EQT Corporation (EQT) is up about 5 percent over the past year, underperforming the overall market. One trader sees shares trending down going into the fall.

That's based on the September $37 puts. With 86 days until expiration, 7,007 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 122, for a 57-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.89 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Global Inflation Remains Sticky

Central banks around the world have now spent more than a year raising interest rates to tame inflation, after first underestimating its effects in 2021 and into 2022. Now, banks are starting to slow, pause, or even reverse rate hikes, as they try and determine if inflation has finally stalled out, or if it is likely to continue.
Workers Maintained 401(k) Contributions in 2022

American workers contributed an average 7.4 percent of their pay to 401(k) retirement plans in 2022. That's on par with 2021's high, according to the latest data from Vanguard. With company matches, the average contribution rate rose to 11.3 percent of pay. The contributions continued even as both stocks and bonds sold off, an unusual event for financial markets.
Britain Faces Mortgage Crisis

Borrowers in the United Kingdom are facing a mortgage crisis, as two-year, fixed-rate mortgages are closing in on 6 percent. Mortgages in the UK are of shorter duration than those in the United States, and are subject to periodic changes. Interest rates in the UK are expected to hit 6 percent.
Toyota Unveils "Manual Transmission" For Its EVs

Toyota Motors (TM) has unveiled a realistic-feeling feature for its EVs to mimic a manual transmission. As fully electric vehicles have no need for shifting gears like in gasoline powered cars, the feature would be purely for those who find an EV too smooth and simple to operate.
Reddit CEO Comes Out Against Protests

The CEO of Reddit has been hitting the press, coming out against protests over the platform's decision to charge third-party apps. The protests have included many subreddit moderators, who have taken their subreddits private in protest, and the site had a brief outage last week as the protests first went underway. Reddit has been planning to go public for some time.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
GNRC  8.437%
TSLA 5.308%
PYPL 3.869%
NVDA 2.953%
DISH 2.937%
BOTTOM
SEDG 8.133%
JD 6.775%
ENPH 5.434%
WBD 4.648%
BWA 4.64%

Quote of the Day
With continued challenges from the property market, pervasive pessimism among consumers and private entrepreneurs, and only moderate policy easing to partially offset the strong growth headwinds, we mark down our 2023 real GDP forecast.
- Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist, on the investment bank's decision to downgrade the country's growth prospects as reopening the economy and a flagging real estate market have yet to recover.

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