News : How abortion is playing into Tuesday’s elections in Virginia

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

How abortion is playing into Tuesday’s elections in Virginia

Jun 20, 2023

TOP LINE

The battle over abortion rights is framing some of the marquee legislative battles going down this year in Virginia.

The results of Tuesday’s Virginia primary elections will set the stage for the most high-stakes legislative races of 2023. All 140 seats are up for election, and many members are either resigning or running for a new office due to redistricting.

Democrats hold a slim majority in the state Senate, while the GOP has a narrow control of the state House. Both chambers have been marked as top targets by national Democratic and Republican groups, and the GOP is being bolstered by Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is raising millions of dollars in support of holding the House and flipping the Senate.

With a split legislature, the Republican governor has faced roadblocks in passing some of his top priorities — including a proposed 15-week abortion ban. Democrats in the state Senate stymied that effort earlier this year, something they will likely lean on heavily in November.

“The DLCC gave Republicans a reality check by running on protecting abortion access and creating a winning blueprint for state Democrats,” a memo from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says.

Abortion is still a driving theme in many of Tuesday’s contests, most notably in the Democratic primary for the state’s 13th Senate District between state Sen. Joe Morrissey — a longstanding and polarizing figure in Virginia politics — and his challenger, former Del. Lashrecse Aird. He’s a self-described “pro-life” Democrat — something that Aird has made sure to emphasize during her campaign. Morrissey has pushed back, saying that Aird has “misstated his position on abortion” and he “supports restricting the procedure at the point when a fetus can feel pain.”

Prominent Democrats have abandoned Morrissey. Aird has raked in endorsements from all of the female Democratic state senators, as well as most of the Democrats in Virginia’s congressional delegation. Abortion rights groups have also waded into the contest in support of Aird, including EMILY’s List and NARAL Pro-Choice America.

The district leans blue, and the victor of the primary has a smooth path to victory come November.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats are hoping abortion will drive out voters once again, as it has in previous elections. A special election earlier this year drew in national dollars to boost now-state Sen. Aaron Rouse, a Democrat who campaigned on a pro-abortion rights platform. Democratic opponents are squabbling with each other over abortion in the primaries, showing the salience of the issue — even though members of the party largely hold the same stance.

Even Republicans are speaking about abortion — a rarity for the members of the party, many of whom either stay mum on the topic or who struggle with it in a general election. Republican State Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant isn’t facing a primary challenger, but has a difficult reelection bid ahead of her after redistricting has her running in the 16th District, a seat that leans Democratic. In an ad, she outlines her position on abortion, saying it should remain legal up to 15 weeks and there should be “reasonable exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother and severe fetal anomalies.” Right now, abortion is legal in Virginia until the third trimester, and there is an exception in the third trimester if there is a danger to the mother’s life.

“What I cannot accept is the current Virginia law that allows for abortion up to the moment of birth,” says Dunnavant, an OB-GYN, in the ad. “As a physician, I know this is not reasonable. It is unnecessary, extreme and heartbreaking.”

Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.

Happy Tuesday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Virginia primary: TODAY

Days until the Mississippi primary: 49

Days until the Louisiana primary: 116

Days until the 2023 election: 140

Days until the Republican National Convention: 391

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 426

Days until the 2024 election: 504

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Presidential Big Board

TRAIL MIX — It was a big weekend on the presidential campaign trail. President Joe Biden’s campaign “is finally waking up,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Jonathan Lemire write, as he attended his first rally since announcing his reelection campaign on Saturday in Philadelphia.

“But those waiting for the Biden reelection shouldn’t hold their breath,” our Eugene Daniels writes. “Some familiar with the effort said big campaign rallies may not begin in earnest until late this year or early 2024. What’s more likely are events like these tied to particular issues: gun control, abortion and the economy.” Holly and Jonathan add that “the type of successful formula that Democrats can and will use going forward” is “a heads-down approach that contrasts with a Republican Party rife with internal frictions.”

… Coming up: “In the back half of June, Biden’s campaign will have more than 20 fundraisers involving him, Vice President Kamala Harris, first lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Douglas Emhoff,” writes the AP’s Zeke Miller and Josh Boak.

… Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the first declared presidential candidate to hit Nevada this cycle on Saturday. Speaking at the annual conservative Basque Fry event, he avoided “direct mention of his top competitor for the GOP nomination, former President Donald Trump,” The Nevada Independent’s Tabitha Mueller, Jacob Solis and Sean Golonka report.

CAUCUS RUCKUS — "A panel of the Democratic National Committee said Friday that Iowa Democrats' 2024 mail-in caucus plan does not comply with the national party's presidential primary requirements because it does not set a date for its caucuses," writes the Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel. The state party has until mid-July to make changes.

PRIMARY PUSHBACK — “South Carolina Republicans have set Feb. 24 as the date of their 2024 presidential primary, a move that, if approved, the party says will give GOP White House hopefuls more time to campaign in the first-in-the-South state,” the AP’s Meg Kinnard writes. South Carolina Republican Party executive director Hope Walker said that pushing back the primary, which in 2016 was three days before Nevada’s caucus, would give candidates “more time after Nevada votes on Feb. 6 to focus their attention on the state.”

CASH DASH — American Values 2024, a super PAC supporting Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, has raised at least $5.7 million, per The New York Times’ Reid J. Epstein.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

SUNUNU … SUNUNO? — Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said he’s “not leaning towards” seeking a fifth term next year, our Lisa Kashinsky reports. He recently told POLITICO that he intends to make his final decision this summer, after the state’s legislative session concludes at the end of June.

2024 WATCH — Former Democratic Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards, who was running for mayor of Houston this year, is dropping out to run for TX-18, the district currently held by Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. Jackson Lee is running for mayor too, but doesn’t have to give up her seat in Congress to run for the position.

… Former Republican state Del. Brenda Thiam filed to run for MD-06, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. David Trone as he runs for Senate. One other Republican, veteran Mariela Roca, has previously announced her candidacy for the seat.

… Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and wealthy businessperson who the NRSC is recruiting to run for Montana Senate, was in D.C. last week. He met with a group of lobbyists to discuss a potential Senate bid, my Playbook colleagues report.

... "Republicans at Wisconsin's party convention say they have 'strong candidates' to face Tammy Baldwin in 2024 U.S. Senate race," by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea. (No Republican has declared yet.)

SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — The Ohio Supreme Court ruled that an August special election in which voters will decide on a proposed state constitutional amendment that would make it harder to pass future amendments, can proceed. Opponents of the measure sued over the legality of the election because earlier this year, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed an omnibus bill that, in part, removes statewide August special elections. In a separate ruling last week, the court decided that parts of the ballot language needed to be rewritten because it was misleading. That new language has since been approved. Read more from The Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller.

… FIRST IN SCORE — Swing Left, the liberal group focused on engaging grassroots Democrats, is mobilizing its volunteers to canvas, phone bank, and write letters to encourage Ohioans to vote against the proposal in the August special election. It’s the first time the group is engaging with a ballot initiative.

Republicans in the state teed up the amendment to try to kneecap a looming attempt to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. Swing Left’s canvassing is also collecting petition signatures for a potential for that initiative, which could be on the ballot in November. Those signatures are due July 5.

“Organizing and mobilizing Ohio voters — especially young, Democratic-leaning women voters — early can help protect the democratic process in the state and lay the groundwork for Swing Left’s efforts to hold OH-01 and OH-13, and reelect Sen. Sherrod Brown,” Swing Left executive director Yasmin Radjy said in a statement.

DOWN-BALLOT CORNER — Former Democratic New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey is considering a run for mayor of Jersey City in 2025, CBS New York’s Marcia Kramer reports. In 2004, McGreevey came out as gay and resigned “after a lawsuit threatened to expose an extramarital affair with another man.” Current Democratic Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is running for governor in 2025.

READY OR NOT, HERE AI COME — Dozens of Democratic strategists gathered last week to discuss how to combat an expected explosion of AI-generated fake content flooding TV airwaves and mailboxes in 2024. Your host has the readout of the meeting.

VOTING RIGHTS

FIRST IN SCORE — Campaigns have an opportunity to improve voter education surrounding election deniers, a report from Public Wise, a voting rights organization, released on Tuesday argues. In a survey, about a third of people included the future of democracy as one of their three most important issues, deputy research director Sara Moore said in an interview with Score. That poll was conducted April 13-19 among 3,637 eligible voters nationally, and has a 2.0 percentage point margin of error. “A functioning democracy is essential to the issues that people actually did consider to be most important,” Moore said, pointing to the cost of living and abortion access.

Public Wise executive director Christina Baal-Owens added that there isn’t a general consensus of what election denialism can look like, and so “there’s an area to do education around how people at different levels of office are attacking our democracy … and that election denying and the acts of these folks were not just related to 2020 — that there's an ongoing attack on elections.”

FOR YOUR CALENDAR — “The Alabama Legislature will have until July 21 to draw a second congressional district where ‘Black voters either comprise a voting-age majority or something quite close to it,’ in compliance with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision … in Allen v. Milligan,” the Alabama Reflector’s Alander Rocha writes. “The judges also made it clear they reserved the right to appoint special masters to draw congressional maps for the state, should the Legislature’s proposal fail to meet their guidelines.”

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — NATIONAL — There hasn’t been much movement in national GOP presidential primary polls, despite Trump’s second indictment and the entrance of high-profile candidates. “The lack of movement between the candidates over an otherwise busy period suggests the race is, on the whole, stable,” writes our Steve Shepard.

… RELATED: “The GOP field discovers there are only side acts in the Trump show,” by POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison.

… NEW HAMPSHIRE — Trump has the lead among New Hampshire primary voters, per a New Hampshire Journal/Coefficient poll. Trump has 47 percent of support, followed by DeSantis with 13 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has 9 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence has 5 percent, and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) each has 3 percent (904 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, June 14-16, MoE +/- 3.25 percentage points).

NH GOV — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), who’s laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial bid, is leading the GOP pack for governor, per the NH Journal/Coefficient poll. She has 69 percent of support, followed by former Republican New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse, who’s moving toward a bid but said he won’t run if Sununu runs again. New Hampshire Commissioner of Public Education Frank Edelblut, who's also considering a bid, earns 9 percent.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

AS SEEN ON TV

KY GOV — Kentucky Values, which is affiliated with the RGA, is out with an ad tying Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to Biden. “Some of Washington's craziest ideas are coming to Kentucky,” the narrator says, referring to Beshear’s support of gender-affirming care and his decision to release inmates early amid the pandemic.

MS GOV — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves is touting job growth in the latest spot for his reelection bid.

STAFFING UP

— Quint Forgey is now communications director for Democratic SC-01 candidate Michael Moore. Forgey is a master’s student at the Harvard Kennedy School and is a former POLITICO reporter.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Loving thy neighbor is exhausting, especially in a place like the Texas legislature.” (Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico, who is considering a bid against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in 2026, to POLITICO’s Adam Wren)

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