Wednesday, May 31, 2023

☕ Extinction event

Could AI lead to the collapse of human society?
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Morning Brew

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Good morning. Big news from our Morning Brew Daily podcast: We're releasing episodes much earlier.

Since we launched the pod in the winter, the top piece of feedback—overwhelmingly—was that people on the East Coast wanted to listen during their morning commutes.

So, starting today, the team is waking up when the bars are closing to record episodes to be released at 7am ET, up from 10am. That means this morning's episode will probably be live by the time you're reading this.

You can catch Morning Brew Daily on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, watch on YouTube, or check us out wherever you get your shows. Happy listening.

Sam Klebanov, Cassandra Cassidy, Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

13,017.43

S&P

4,205.52

Dow

33,042.78

10-Year

3.692%

Bitcoin

$27,825.50

Tesla

$201.16

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 1:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The stock market is firmly in its Harvey Dent era. On one side of the two-face, you have tech stocks, which continued their sprint higher yesterday (peep the Nasdaq in the green). On the other, less pretty side, more industrial-focused companies dragged down the Dow. The 30-stock index has slid into negative territory for the year.
 

TECH

AI could destroy humanity, AI's creators say

hologram earth on top of microchip Francis Scialabba

Tell the world AI may cause human civilization to collapse without going over Twitter's character limit.

That's what a bunch of celebrity AI experts did when they signed a 22-word statement warning about the existential risks of the technology that was published by the nonprofit Center for AI Safety yesterday.

Those 22 ominous words: "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war."

Many of the signatories comparing AI to the A-bomb are the same folks who were foundational in creating the tech: Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI (which made ChatGPT), and Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, as well as superstar AI researchers Geoffrey Hinton and Stuart Russell, were among the big names who endorsed the message.

What should we be worried about?

Though intelligent machines could supercharge progress in virtually all human endeavors, from drug discovery to space exploration, some experts worry they might also cause humans to go the way of the Hartford Whalers. Prominent AI doomer Eliezer Yudkowsky argues it's likely that "literally everyone on Earth will die" if superhuman AI comes on the scene.

The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative and Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk both monitor AI's threats to human civilization alongside other potential species-enders like extreme climate change and nuclear winter.

These researchers are concerned about a future in which an AI that outperforms humans in various domains (but doesn't share their values) is prone to catastrophic accidents or misuse.

But worrying about hypothetical evil bots with a Labrador's knack for destruction might be premature in 2023. Many AI researchers believe the advent of sophisticated, multi-talented AI is at least a few decades away, and there's no consensus about how dangerous those systems might be.

Some AI engineers say we should focus less on the future existential risks and more on pressing threats like misinformation, copyright violations, privacy concerns, the concentration of corporate power, and perhaps shoddy legal advice.—SK

     

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Elizabeth Holmes checking into prison Mark Felix/Getty Images

Elizabeth Holmes checks into prison. The Theranos founder arrived at the federal minimum-security women's prison camp in Bryan, Texas, yesterday to begin serving her 11-year sentence for defrauding investors of hundreds of millions of dollars. While at FPC Bryan, which is located about 95 miles northwest of Holmes's hometown of Houston, she will spend time with up to 650 incarcerated women—among them Jennifer Shah, the Real Housewives of Salt Lake City star who is also imprisoned there for fraud.

The war in Ukraine comes to Moscow. Drones struck apartment buildings in Moscow yesterday in the first attack on residential neighborhoods in Russia's capital since the war began. Russia claimed Ukraine sent the drones, and President Vladimir Putin threatened to retaliate with "tit-for-tat measures." The bold attack on Moscow, which came after days of Russian bombardment of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, shows how Putin may have underestimated Newton's third law of motion when he invaded Ukraine.

Student loan payments could restart soon. Tucked into the debt ceiling deal agreed to by President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is a measure that requires student loan borrowers to start paying their monthly bills again 60 days after June 30. A freeze on repayments has been in place since March 2020 due to Covid, and it's been extended several times as the pandemic dragged on. This deadline for the resumption of payments is similar to the timeline previously laid out by Biden, but it prevents him from issuing another pause.

TECH

Nvidia is too trill

Jensen Huang giving a speech wearing a leather jacket Mandel Ngan/Getty Images

Nvidia briefly reached a $1 trillion market capitalization yesterday, joining an exclusive club of six other US companies that have hit the mark: Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta. The latter two have been thrown out of the club since (as has Nvidia, which closed the day just below the $1t threshold).

By elevating Nvidia to such hallowed corporate ground, investors are sending a clear message: AI will generate untold riches, and Nvidia, which produces computer chips that power most cutting-edge AI programs, will capture much of the value created.

Started from a Denny's, now we're here

Thirty years ago, presumably over a Grand Slamwich, Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang started a conversation that would lead him to create a computer processing powerhouse that has seemingly ridden every tech industry wave over the past few decades.

Huang does things his own way, such as making bold fashion choices. From a formal dinner to the cover of Time magazine, Huang is almost always photographed wearing the antithesis of the tech CEO Patagonia pullover: a leather jacket, which will probably have its own Twitter account soon.

Some think Nvidia's rise is too fast, too furious. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest argued that Nvidia's stock is "priced ahead of the curve" in a tweet on Monday. There might be a twinge of regret: Wood's flagship ETF dumped all of its Nvidia shares in January, right before the stock rallied $560 billion.—CC

     

FROM THE CREW

The Crew

Raise your voice for that raise. Are you being paid below what you're worth? Money Scoop's latest guide explains how to navigate researching, preparing, and asking for the compensation you deserve. To confidently negotiate your salary, download the guide today.

RETAIL

Gen Z wants to smell expensive

Perfume bottle that is spraying perfume into a "Z." Hannah Minn

Now that we've all finished our $12 bottle of Dark Kiss body spray from 2013, expensive perfume is having its moment. The pricey fragrance category in the US has seen a 60% jump this year compared to pre-pandemic levels, Sue Nabi, CEO of multinational beauty conglomerate Coty, told Yahoo.

Coty, which owns fragrance brands like Marc Jacobs and Gucci, beat its quarterly estimates earlier this month and reported 9% net revenue growth from a year earlier. The company credited a blooming fragrance market to "Gen Zs, men, [and the] Hispanic community in the US," Nabi said.

  • No shocker here, but Gen Z's interest in finding their signature scent is driven by TikTok, which is allowing them to discover indie perfume brands.
  • Indie fragrance brand Juliette Has a Gun just closed a new funding round after posting sales of $129 million last year.

Is the boom because we all smell bad? Not necessarily—people just need little treats, even during times of economic uncertainty. In a phenomenon dubbed the "lipstick effect," beauty brands have historically seen an uptick in sales of small luxuries when shoppers tighten their belts elsewhere. So, instead of buying a big-ticket item like a car, consumers are splurging on a $100 bottle of perfume.—MM

     

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Steve Ballmer, Mark Zuckerberg, and Warren Buffett Illustration: Francis Scialabba, Photos: Getty Images

Stat: The US' bank account is running on empty ahead of a June 5 deadline to raise the debt ceiling. In fact, 31 billionaires, including Mark Zuckerberg and Warren Buffett, are each worth more than the $38.8 billion in cash that the US Treasury had on hand at the close of business on May 25, CNN reported. But reinforcements could be on their way soon: The agreement that would suspend the debt ceiling advanced to the House floor for debate today.

Quote: "I just remember hitting my head, and now I have the cheese."

This postgame interview from 19-year-old Delaney Irving pretty much sums up what it's like to compete in the cheese-rolling race at Cooper's Hill in southwest England, an event that's been held annually since at least 1826. Irving beat out the other women daredevils in scrambling down the menacingly steep, 200-yard hill to capture a seven-pound wheel of Double Gloucester cheese, but not before being knocked unconscious. The winner of the first men's race of the day, Matt Crolla, told the AP how he prepares: "I don't think you can train for it, can you? It's just being an idiot."

Read: What happened to Jeopardy!? (Slate)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Twitter is worth one-third of the $44 billion Elon Musk paid for the company, according to Fidelity.
  • The Succession finale on Sunday night pulled in 2.9 million viewers—a record for the series, HBO said. Excellent show .
  • Goldman Sachs is reportedly considering its third round of layoffs in less than a year as Wall Street dealmaking continues its slump.
  • US air traveler numbers this MDW topped 2019 levels, according to the TSA.
  • A beluga whale suspected of being a former Russian spy was seen off the coast of Sweden.

RECS

Wednesday to-do list

AI canon: Here is an expertly curated reading list for all things AI—from how chatbots work to how to generate music from text.

The perfect American road trip: These routes will guide you across the US through places where the temperature is always 70 degrees Fahrenheit.

A-maze-ing mouse: Watch robot mice compete in the fastest maze-solving contest on Earth. (YouTube)

For the cheapskates: Here's your guide to getting content without a monthly subscription to Netflix or Spotify.

Three companies dominate 90% of the US phone market. And all three were founded 47+ years ago. Can a new entrant rival these giants? One man has done so twice. Listen to the full story.

Game on: Play 200+ ad-free games with Apple Arcade and enjoy uninterrupted across select Apple devices with a constantly updated game catalog.*

*This is sponsored advertising content. Subscription required.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Word Search: Many brands use stars as their logos. Think you can identify them? Play today's Word Search to find out.

Cheese trivia

Reading about the cheese-rolling races got us in the mood for some cheese—and cheese trivia. See if you can answer the five questions below on the topic of cheese.

  1. Which animated duo is known for their love of Wensleydale cheese?
  2. Which cheese typically goes in a Cobb salad?
  3. Which type of animal milk is not used to make feta cheese: sheep, goat, or cow?
  4. Mascarpone cheese is one of the main ingredients in what famous Italian dessert?
  5. "Tyrosemiophilia" is the hobby of collecting what cheese-related items?

AROUND THE BREW

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ANSWER

1. Wallace and Gromit

2. Blue cheese

3. Cow's milk is not used to make feta cheese.

4. Tiramisu

5. Cheese labels

✢ A Note From Facet

*Source 1

**Source 2

***Based on a study conducted by Facet in April 2023. A statistically valid sample of members following Facet's current planning process demonstrated that more than half of these members, defined here as a majority, achieved value greater than their planning fee. This value was shown to reoccur on an annual basis. Assumptions included average expenses and fees, using retirement tax savings, portfolio expenses and tax loss harvesting as value drivers using Facet's investment services, and discounting value to align with the acceptance of Facet recommendations. Facet assesses clients an annual flat fee for service based on the complexity of planning needs. There is no separate or additional fee for investment management. This is not a guarantee or prediction of actual results for any member and results may vary by member. Some value like tax loss harvesting may vary year to year. Facet Wealth, Inc. ("Facet") is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. This is not an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase securities. This is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, and Cassandra Cassidy

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